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New Orleans Saints Team Total O/U 8.5 Wins
The New Orleans Saints are in a new era of football post-Sean Payton and Drew Brees.
This offseason, I like what New Orleans did, including drafting offensive lineman Trevor Penning to replace Terron Armstead (Dolphins), signing WR Jarvis Landry and drafting Ohio State WR Chris Olave to juice up the offense.
Michael Thomas is back and practicing - his return to the team is substantial given he was a top-10 wideout when healthy. The Saints await the news of Alvin Kamara‘s hearing, which is scheduled for August 1st.
Kamara is facing allegations from February, but there is a chance a suspension could be pushed until next season with the start of this season so close.
Behind Kamara, the Saints roll with the 32-year-old Mark Ingram and the very ineffective Tony Jones. However, if Kamara is out, New Orleans will attack the free agency market and take the scraps of any preseason cuts from other teams to fill that void.
In the meantime, we can expect New Orleans to continue having success throwing on first down with Jameis Winston and the now improved receiving core.
The key for the Saints is the health of Winston, and keeping him upright is part of that. The offensive line should be a top-16 unit with Ryan Ramczyk, Cesar Ruiz, Erik McCoy, Andrus Peat and Penning/James Hurst.
The defense was stellar last season and one of the best units in the NFL. They arguably got better. New Orleans added safety Marcus Maye (Jets) and Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs) to a secondary with No. 1 cornerback Marshon Lattimore to give the Saints one of the best secondaries in the NFL, let alone the NFC.
In other key spots, leading tackler Demario Davis is back at linebacker along with the team’s emotional leader and veteran Cameron Jordan on the defensive line. Zack Baun will likely start this season and he is someone to keep an eye on.
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Last season, New Orleans started four different quarterbacks and went on a five-game losing streak once Winston was injured in Week 8.
From Weeks 9-13, the Saints lost every game, starting with the Falcons by two points (27-25), the Titans by two points (23-21), the Eagles by 11 points (40-29), the Bills by 25 points (31-6) and lastly, the Cowboys by 10 points (27-17).
What did you expect with Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill and later in the season, Ian Book? The Saints rallied and won four of the last five games to end the regular-season 9-8, just above .500. However, only one of those five teams to end the season had a winning record, so not that impressive, but they did what they had to do.
As the starting quarterback, Winston was 5-2 on the ML and 4-3 ATS last season and with the Saints in two years, he is 9-3 on the ML and 8-4 ATS when he plays -- those are stellar betting numbers and behind an upgraded offense and the usual above average defense, I like the upside here along with the schedule.
Playing four games versus the Panthers and Falcons helps, as well as meetings against the Seahawks, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Raiders -- those are all teams I expect to take a step back this season in terms of talent.
Five of those nine games mentioned are at home, which helps the Saints, along with their home schedule overall. From Week four to Week 11, the Saints have six home games out of eight weeks! They have a streak of three-straight home games and another stretch with three out of four at home.
Let’s roll with the Saints Over 8.5 Wins at +100 odds and get ready to scream WHO DAT Week one versus the Falcons. You can wait until August 1-2 with the official Kamara news, but I like the chances the Saints cash nine-plus wins regardless.
Pick: Saints Team Total Over 8.5 Wins (2u)
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