How to bet Super Wild Card Weekend in the NFL
Brock Purdy O/U 219.5 Passing Yards vs. Seahawks
Brock Purdy O/U 28.5 Pass Attempts vs. Seahawks
However, he may have his work cut out for him as rookie QBs are 9-18 on the ML since 1983. There will also be steady rain in this game with low winds between 10-20 MPH, while the wind won’t be significant factor, the rain could be.
In addition to that, Elijah Mitchell is back, as is Deebo Samuel, so pair those two along with Christian McCaffrey and that sets up the 49ers up to take pressure off the rookie quarterback in his first postseason start.
I expect around 25-plus rushing attempts between that trio and there will be an arrange of plays the 49ers can run now that they didn’t have available to them the past few weeks.
Purdy has thrown 37, 21, 26, 22, 35 and 20 pass attempts with the 49ers and 217 or fewer yards in four of those six games. In his only meeting versus Seattle, Purdy tossed 217 yards on 17-of-26 passing. I expect Kyle Shananah to have a game plan to eat clock and keep things simple for Purdy.
I played the Under 219.5 yards on DraftKings at -115 odds. This is 214.5 on FanDuel. I played the Under 28.5 Pass Attempts too (-130). I would play that to 27.5 or -140 at 28.5.
Pick: Brock Purdy Under 219.5 Passing Yards (1u), Under 28.5 Pass Attempts (1u)
Justin Herbert O/U 37.5 Pass Attempts vs. Jaguars
After much consideration and some alignment with other prop cappers, I am going to turn Hebert’s passing prop from a lean to an official play.
In his first playoff game, I don’t expect Brandon Staley and company to be shy throwing the ball. Although Mike Williams is out, Herbert went Over this line both games Williams missed with 47 pass attempts in each.
Herbert is second in the NFL with 4,739 yards and 279 or more yards in nine out of 17 games this season and 37 or more pass attempts in 10 games, but he didn’t play the fourth quarter of Week 18’s loss.
Earlier when the Jaguars punished the Chargers 38-10 in Week 3, Herbert went 25-of-45 for 297 yards. The Chargers quarterback was also injured, so that game is a scrap for me. However, the Jaguars are playing their best football of the season with five-straight wins and six of the previous seven games.
If the Chargers want to win, I expect 40-plus passes from Herbert. Back the Over on pass attempts at 37.5 and would go to 38.5. I will likely be on the Jaguars in this game, but want to get a +3 for a better price than -133.
Pick: Justin Herbert Over 37.5 Pass Attempts (1u)
Joe Burrow O/U 36.5 Pass Attempts vs. Ravens
Why would Joe Burrow need to throw the ball 37-plus times against the Ravens and their backup quarterback?
Burrow has gone Over this number in three-straight games but stayed Under in 10 out of 16 starts (62.5%) this season. The Bengals quarterback threw 34, 37, 38 and 33 pass attempts in four playoff games last season, staying Under in two of four, but hitting the Over on the last drive of each game (game-winning field goals).
The former LSU star tossed 1,105 yards through four postseason games last year with five touchdowns and two interceptions as a part of their miracle run. Burrow was sacked 19 times in four playoff games last year, but he was sacked far less this season (32 sacks taken) compared to his first two years (92 sacks taken).
I think the Bengals protect Burrow and Cincy controls the time of possession against the Ravens.
I backed Burrow Under 36.5 Pass Attempts as my favorite bet of the Wild Card Round. I got this at -114 and would go to -130 or Under 35.5. Run the damn ball, Cincy.
Pick: Joe Burrow Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (1.5u)
Cowboys (-2.5) at Buccaneers: O/U 45.5
Tom Brady is a home underdog in the playoffs for the first time in his career, so get your popcorn ready.
The Cowboys own the second-highest sack percentage on opponents’ drop backs (9.82%) and the Bucs had the lowest sack percentage on pass attempts (2.93%) because of Brady’s quick release and fastest time to throw in the NFL (2.45 seconds).
With this being possibly his final season, expect Brady to go out swinging, or throwing. Brady tossed 733 passes this year, a career-high at 45-years-old and his average completion is 6.4 yards is the lowest since the 2002 season. This offense has been bad at points, but in the final minutes of each half, Brady is still Brady.
Brady’s teams are 7-0 on the ML all-time versus the Cowboys, although they are just small dogs of +2.5 dogs, this was more than likely the best possible draw for Brady and the Bucs at home.
Dallas is 3-2 in the past five games, but barely escaped the Texans, plus the Eagles with a backup quarterback and lost to the Jaguars and Commanders (beat the Titans). We haven’t seen the best of Tampa Bay yet, but we already saw the best of Dallas and that was more than a month ago.
The Cowboys are not playing their best football right now and Dak Prescott is tossing interceptions left and right, so give me the Bucs at home for +120 odds. I don’t need the +2.5.
Pick: Buccaneers ML (1u)
Lowest Scoring Wild Card Team
0.5u: Dolphins (+300)
0.5u: Ravens (+350)
Splitting 1 unit on these as I don’t see how any other teams score less than Skylar Thompson and the Miami offense or Tyler Huntley/Anthony Brown‘s Baltimore offense. This is on DraftKings under Weekly Specials.
We talked about this on the Bet The Edge Podcast with Peter King and Drew Disnick, so check it out around the 36:30 mark.
LEANS - Not Official Plays
Seahawks +10 (-120) at 49ers
Teams like the 49ers that are on a 8-game winning streak or more are 9-22 ATS (29%) in the playoffs. In all of NFL history, only 14 times has a team beat the same opponent three times in a season. Of those 14 teams, six went to the Super Bowl, so look out for San Francisco, if they beat the Seahawks a third time.
I will look at a live angle here if the 49ers score first.
Vikings ML and Bengals ML Parlay (+102)
No Lamar Jackson for the Ravens all but seals the Bengals advancing, while the Vikings come into this game 12-0 on the ML as a favorite compared to the Giants who have lost four of the past five road games. Minnesota has the slight coaching advantage since some of their staff won a Super Bowl with the Rams last season.
FUN FACTS ABOUT THE PLAYOFFS:
No. 7 seeds are 0-4 on the ML and 1-3 ATS since the NFL expanded the playoffs (SEA, MIA).
Since 2002: Home Underdogs are 5-13 ML and 9-8-1 ATS in Wild Card Weekend (TB, JAC).
Since 2002: Home Favorites are 40-26 on ML and 30-36 ATS in Wild Card Weekend (SF, BUF, CIN, MIN).
Since 2002: The Under is 50-34 in the postseason.
The NFL has gone 18 seasons without seeing a repeat Super Bowl Champion (2005-2022), which is the longest streak in NFL history.
The Jaguars versus Chargers are the ninth playoff contest since 1950 in which both starting quarterbacks are under 25 years old. Three of those games happened in the past two postseasons (2020-21).
An NFL-record five head coaches in their first seasons at the reins of their teams are in the playoffs – Todd Bowles (TB), Brian Daboll (NYG), Mike McDaniel (MIA), Kevin O’Connell (MIN) and Doug Pederson (JAC).
This was branded the most competitive NFL season in history because of these following stats.
During the regular season, the average margin of victory was just 9.70 points, the lowest over a full season in 90 years, since it was 9.13 in 1932.
Plus, the NFL established four other single-season records: Most games decided by six-or-fewer points (122), most games decided by seven-or-fewer points (141), most games decided by eight-or-fewer points (156) and most games within one score in the fourth quarter (203).
The fun facts are via NFL communications and sharpfootballanyalsis-- hope you enjoyed and best of luck with your wagers!