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Cardinals (-2) at Seahawks: O/U 50.5
The total for this game is the second-highest of the week and we have two poor defenses, so non wonder why.
The Cardinals haven’t scored a point in the first quarter this year but it’s coming here and that will help Arizona go over their team total versus a suspect Seahawks defense.
Seattle allows 5.6 points per first quarter, which is 28th or 5th-worst. The Seahawks allowed 45 and 39 points in the past two games and we all know the Cardinals are a much better road team than home team.
Arizona scored 26 and 29 points in their two road games this year at Las Vegas and Carolina and had three total points in the first-half of those two games. That will change here.
Give me the Cardinals Team Total Over 26.5 (-110) and I won’t be worried about this being a division game because both defenses are bad.
Pick: Cardinals Team Total Over 26.5 (1u)
Bills (-2.5) at Chiefs: O/U 54.0
Patrick Mahomes is either 7-0-1 ATS or 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog pending what closing number you got.
However, Mahomes has never been a home underdog, making this the first time in his career!
Give me Josh Allen and the Bills.
There is significance to this line and that’s revenge. Buffalo was two wins away from a Super Bowl last year, but Kansas City had something to say about that.
The Chiefs won that playoff game 38-24, outscoring the Bills 38-15 over the final three quarters.
If you don’t think the Bills thought about that heartbreak all offseason, then you’re nutty because Josh Allen is out for vengeance. Just look at how the Bills performed versus the Rams in the NFL opener, it was no mercy.
Last year during the regular-season, Buffalo beat Kansas City 38-20 in Arrowhead, so this isn’t surprising at all to see the Bills as the road favorites with the revenge narrative.
No one talks about that game, but trust me, Kansas City’s defense remembers and so does Allen and Buffalo.
There’s a reason why Mahomes is a home underdog for the first time ever. I played the Bills ML at -140 odds.
Pick: Bills ML (1u)
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Jaguars at Colts (-2): O/U 42.0
We saw a 24-0 score earlier this season but honestly, this is a matchup of two good defenses in a divisional meeting.
The Under has hit in 10 straight games for the Colts dating back to last season. Indy is 5-0 to the Under this year.
If you look at AFC South matchups this season, there have been four games and all four went Under.
Going back to last year, the Under is 9-2 over the past 11 AFC South matchups.
Between these squads, the Under has hit four-straight and went 9-2 to the Under in Indianapolis dating back to 2011.
Jonathan Taylor was excepted to return for Indy but he isn’t, which is concerning because Nyheim Hines is out with a concussion and Matt Ryan hasn’t been able to get much going with seven interceptions to five touchdown passes (35.6 QBR).
The Colts offense averages the fewest points per game (13.8) and Jacksonville’s defense is tied with fourth-fewest points allowed per game (16.0).
This game screams Under and should be another classic AFC South snoozer with turnovers and punts.
Unders are 20-8 (71%) this season when divisional teams meet. Give me the Under 42.
Pick: Under 42 (1u)
Cowboys at Eagles (-6.5): O/U 42.0
Another Primetime Under and Divisional game? Sign me up!
Unders are 12-5 (70.5%) on Primetime this season and Unders are 4-1 (80%) on Sunday Night Football this year.
Unders are 20-8 (71%) this season when divisional teams meet. What’s not to like?
Cooper Rush could be making his final start as Dak Prescott gets healthier each week and a Primetime game at Philly will be no easy task.
Both defenses could shine in this game. Dallas feasts off sacks (4.0 per game, 2nd) and has the second-best turnover margin (+1.0), plus ranks third in points per game (14.4). Philadelphia is first in turnover margin (+1.8), tied-fourth in sacks per game (3.4) and holds its opponents to 17.6 points per game (7th).
The Eagles are the NFL’s lone undefeated team, so every game is a potential letdown spot from here on out. The way for the Cowboys to hang around is by playing defense and winning the time of possession battle.
Philadelphia ranks second in time of possession (33:52) and Dallas is 27th (28:31), so there’s a chance the Eagles run away with this if they control the clock at home. However, the best bet is the Under.
I played the Under 42 at -110 odds and wouldn’t be shocked if this closes around 40.5 or 43.
Pick: Under 42.0 (1u)
Other Plays
7-Point Teasers: Read Here
Packers vs Jets: Read Here
Broncos vs Chargers: Read Here
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.