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Bengals at Ravens (-3): O/U 47.5
Revenge spot on Sunday Night Football in Baltimore? Sign me the freak up!
The Bengals laid the wood on the Ravens last year, winning 41-17 in Baltimore during Week 7 and 41-21 in Cincy during Week 16, the day after Christmas.
The 41-17 loss in Baltimore was the only divisional game Lamar Jackson played last season because of injury, so he absolutely remembers that feeling. Josh Johnson started the second meeting versus Cincy amid the Ravens six-game losing streak to end the 2021 season.
It’s also worth noting, since 2019, the Ravens are 4-2 on the ML versus the Bengals and 3-3 ATS, so those two ML losses for Baltimore came last year.
I backed the Bengals versus the Jets in an obvious bounce back spot and on Thursday Night Football in another apparent spot against the Dolphins, but this becomes a fade spot, especially after the Ravens lost another nail-biter.
Baltimore will be motivated at home on Sunday Night Football versus a division opponent who made the Super Bowl last year and beat them twice while they missed the postseason and Jackson remains without a contract.
My last and honestly, my favorite point, John Harbaugh is a monster at home on Primetime.
The Ravens have gone 18-2 on the ML (90%, +7.59 units) and 12-8 ATS (+2.91 units) as at home.
Harbaugh has gone 8-3 ATS (72.3%, +4.27 units) in the past 11 at home on Primetime and 10-1 on the ML (90.9%, +5.1 units) in that same span (since 2014).
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Baltimore and Harbaugh has only lost at home on Primetime to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in 2020 and the Steelers back in 2010 -- that’s it, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Ravens have covered three-straight on Sunday Night Football at home and won five-straight.
The Ravens have led in all but 14 seconds of their four games this season, yet they are 2-2 and 0-2 at home!
The remaining home games after this matchup are versus the Browns, Panthers, Broncos, Falcons and Steelers. I think the Ravens win every home the rest of the year starting with this one.
Give me the Ravens -3 (-115). I wouldn’t advise playing past the -3, but if this moves to -3.5, I have enough confidence they win by at least a touchdown.
I sprinkled some Ravens -5.5 (+125) and long shots on Ravens to score between 31-40 points (+275) and 41-50 Points (+1400).
Pick: Ravens -3 (2u)
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