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Odell Beckham Jr. O/U 65.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bengals
This line is down to 64.5 - 62.5 on some sports books and 60.5 on PointsBet. Get it while you can.
Odell Beckham has been outstanding in the postseason, recording 236 yards on 19 receptions and 23 targets (one touchdown). OBJ has taken advantage of every opportunity and posted 113 yards on nine receptions and 11 targets in the NFC Championship -- his best game of the year.
With OBJ coming off his best performance, there is only one way to go and that is down. Every time OBJ went for 70-plus yards this season, the very next game he followed it up with a dud, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Despite this being such a popular bet to the Over at PointsBet, we have witnessed the O/U of 65.5 come down to 60.5 and 62.5. Play the Under down to 60.5 yards.
Pick: Odell Beckham Jr Under 65.5 Yards (1u)
Samaje Perine O/U 5.5 Rushing Yards vs. Rams
This line is 2.5 on FanDuel and DraftKings after the 5.5 got punished by a few player prop bettors.
Grab the 5.5 on PointsBet as Perine may not record a carry in this matchup. Through three postseason games, Perine has one carry for two yards compared to four receptions on six targets for 47 yards and one touchdown.
This is a weird line and could be a steal to the Under. Perine is a third-down back that received a 21% or less snap share in every postseason game, while Joe Mixon is 72% or better in all three.
Per NBC’s Player Prop projections, Perine has hit the Under 5.5 rushing yards in 11 out of 19 games (58%) and in six straight games!
I played the Under 5.5 rushing yards at -140 odds.
I would play the Under 2.5 rushing yards for a smaller bet as I don’t think Perine gets a carry.
Pick: Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (1u)
Super Bowl LVI MVP
0.5u: Cooper Kupp (+600)
Lunch Money: Von Miller (+4500)
Von Miller, Ray Lewis, Malcolm Smith and Dexter Jackson are the only three defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP in the last 25 years. Miller won Super Bowl 50 MVP with the Denver Broncos in 2016 and can become the only player in NFL history to win the Super Bowl MVP twice as a defensive player.
That would cap off Miller’s Hall of Fame career right there. Miller had five tackles, 2.5 sacks and 2 forced fumbles versus the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50. He is my favorite long shot bet of Super Bowl LVI.
Cooper Kupp is the best bet outside of quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow for obvious reasons. The Rams wideout has been an animal this season, totaling 2,333 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns on 170 receptions over 20 games. Kupp averages 8.5 receptions for 116.6 yards and 1.0 touchdown per game.
The wide receiver position won Super Bowl MVP four times since 2006: Deion Branch, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and Julian Edelman. Before 2006, Jerry Rice in 1989 was the last one, so it’s happened more often lately, but not that often -- Kupp can change that.
This is how the last four wide outs to win Super Bowl MVP performed:
Julian Edelman: 10 catches on 12 targets for 141 yards
Santonio Holmes: 9 catches on 12 targets for 131 yards and one touchdown
Hines Ward: 5 catches for 123 yards and one touchdown
Deion Branch: 11 catches for 133 yards
They do not have target stats for Ward and Branch, but I like the chances Kupp can do 9-12 receptions/targets for 100-plus yards and a touchdown. Compared to those receivers, Kupp is a much more dangerous route-runner and with YAC.
If Kupp hits 10 receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl LVI, it will be hard to turn him down for MVP. I till more than likely be based on Satfford’s performance and a win, of course. If Stafford turns the ball over once or twice and Kupp balls out -- I like the chances Kupp wins MVP after this amazing season overall.
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