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Due to my $1,000 entry in the Circa Millions Contest in Vegas, I have to avoid others using my plays, so my NFL picks will be out Saturday’s after 2 PM ET.
This weekly article will include my ATS picks entered in the contest with breakdowns.
Browns at Panthers (-1): O/U 42.0
Did you know that the last season the Browns won a Week 1 NFL game was 2004? That’s right. Every year, operation fade the Browns in Week 1.
This Week 1 is special because Baker Mayfield will be on the Carolina sideline and not the Cleveland sideline. It’s a revenge game versus his former Browns squad. With the Browns losing 17 straight Week 1 games, Mayfield will absolutely want to make it 18 because he is well-aware of the streak.
The Browns will not have Deshaun Watson, so this is a great spot for Carolina to get win, especially with a healthy Christian McCaffrey in the backfield and D.J. Moore out wide.
Jacoby Brissett will start for the Browns in place of Watson. Brissett played in 11 games last season and had five touchdowns and four interceptions on 225 pass attempts. Last season, Brissett struggled with play-action only completing 60.5% of his passes (22nd), per PlayerProfiler.
The Browns offense is based on the ground game and if he is dropping straight back, he wasn’t much better even with a clean pocket, completing 65.7% of his passes (30th). More so, Brissett didn’t play all preseason, so I don’t expect him to be sharp in Week 1 at Carolina.
This line has flip-flopped on some books between Panthers +1 (-115) and Panthers -1 (-110), but I think Carolina wins outright.
Pick: Carolina Panthers ML (1u)
Jaguars at Commanders (-3): O/U 44.0
Not much has been positive out of Commanders camp, while the Jags have shown some excitement with a new head coach in Trevor Lawrence‘s second season.
Washington opens as a home favorite with Carson Wentz making his first start on his third team. Washington was only a home favorite twice last season and went 0-2 ATS and 1-1 on the ML beating the Giants by one point. Since 2018, Washington is 3-6 on the ML (33.3%) and 2-7 ATS as a home favorite (22.2%).
Wentz is 23-8-1 on the ML as a home favorite with the Colts and Eagles (74.1%, +0.7 units), plus 16-16 ATS (50%, -1.45 units) as a home favorite in his career. Wentz lost his last two season openers and he’s 0-2 ATS in his last two versus the Jaguars (2021, 2022).
I admit, the Jaguars are not very good but could very well win this game outright. Head Coach Doug Pederson is 3-2 ATS and on 4-1 on the ML in Week 1 and a major upgrade from Urban Meyer.
Washington will be without Chase Young and they lost Brandon Scherff, Ereck Flowers, plus Landon Collins in the offseason. Jacksonville lost a few players like Andrew Norwell to the Commanders but added offensive firepower with Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, Zay Jones and Scherff, plus a few guys on defense.
Those are the type of additions to at least attempt to make an offense somewhat explosive centered around Lawrence, Travis Etienne and James Robinson. The Commanders will rely on Wentz arguably more than ever to move the ball in Week 1 with Antonio Gibson in the doghouse and I cannot trust that.
The spread opened at +4.5 for Jacksonville but as long as your are getting a +3 (-110) or better, I like the value.
I would play this down to +1. I think the Jaguars can win outright.
Pick: Jaguars +3 (1u)
Packers (-1.5) at Vikings: O/U 46.5
If the Vikings open the season with a Dalvin Cook OT fumble to lose this bet like last year, I apologize, but I think karma will be in our favor this time around.
I like my trends and there are a few I find interesting for this game that also factors into me also fading the public because I believe public money will come in on the Packers and sharp money on the Vikings.
Over the last 10 meetings in Minnesota between these two NFC North teams, the Vikings are 7-3 ATS (70%) as a home underdog. But it gets better.
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 6-8 ATS (42.8%) in Minnesota over his career. More so, when you break it down to A-Rod being a road favorite with Green Bay, he is 2-6 ATS (25%) and 4-4 on the ML (50%) in his career at Minnesota, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Vikings hired Kevin O’Connell (HC) and Wes Phillips (OC) from the Rams and the players have commented on the difference in the offense. Players like Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and Cook should have stellar seasons in this new offense that’s mainly ran in 3 WR sets.
As great as Rodgers is, I will not expect his rhythm with his receivers to be on point for Week 1. The departure of Davante Adams will be difficult to make up. I don’t expect any Green Bay receivers to emerge as starts, but I do expect Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to get more of a workload than ever.
Diggin deeper, the Packers have not put up godly offensive numbers in Week 1 outside of 2020. Green Bay has scored 24 or less points in four out of the past five Week 1 games as they have labeled as slow starters lately.
The Packers should need 24-plus points against this new Vikings offense and I am not sure they will be able to outscore the Vikings in Minnesota Week 1.
Let’s roll with the Vikings +1.5 (-110) as they could win this game outright. When these teams meet at Green Bay later in the season, we will likely roll with the Packers but this line is begging you to bet Green Bay.
The total has dropped from 49 to 46.5.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings +1.5 (1u)
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Giants at Titans (-5.5): O/U 44.0
New York will open the season on the road at Tennessee as +5.5-point dogs and that’s enough points to get involved.
I gave this out about a month ago on Bet The Edge when the line was Giants +6, but the +5.5 is fine too.
The Titans dealt with losses to their offensive line this offseason, giving them one of the bottom-10 units entering this year, plus no more A.J. Brown (Eagles), Julio Jones (Bucs) or Jeremy McNichols (Steelers).
The A.J. Brown deal was the worst because the Titans’ offense was terrible without him.
Last season, without Brown, the Titans averaged 17.5 points per game versus the Jaguars, Jets, Steelers and Patriots. Tennessee went 1-3 on the ML, only beating Jacksonville, who had the No. 1 pick.
With Brown, the Titans went 11-3 on the ML, losing to the Cardinals, Texans and Bengals (playoffs). Derrick Henry will not fix that himself, and neither will the help of Ryan Tannehill with Robert Woods as his only valid receiving weapon.
For the Giants, they should be on the upswing and finally see improvement after spending years at the bottom of the league and spending tons of draft stock on an offensive line.
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones is 11-5 ATS (68.7%) as a road underdog in his career and 10-3 ATS in the past 13 (76.9%). One thing worth noting in that 16 game sample is Jones rocks a perfect 6-0 ATS when the spread is between +1 and +6 as a road underdog, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Jones is 2-4 on the ML in those games of +6 or less compared to 1-9 on the ML when the spread is +6.5 or higher.
I would not bet much on the Giants to win outright, but feel confident taking them +6 (-110).
The Giants will hang around and have chances to win this game outright. Stopping Derrick Henry is the obvious key to this game as well as getting Saquon Barkley going early.
The Giants have an advantage on the offensive and defensive line against the Titans, which can make the difference with both teams passing attacks being under question. I would play this down to +5.
Pick: New York Giants +6 (1u)
NFL Week 1 Player Props
Joe Mixon Under 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs. Steelers: Read Here
Dak Prescott Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-125) vs. Buccaneers: Read here
Some of us at NBC put together a team for the Circa Millions contest in Vegas. These are the squads picks for Week 1: Vikings +1.5, Giants +6, Saints -5.5, Patriots +3.5 and Jaguars +2.5
Parlayed together the odds are 22-to-1, which are the odds every week for an attempt at 5-0 in this contest.
Let the fun begin!
