Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
This week’s Sunday night tilt between AFC West rivals features a somewhat flailing Chargers squad (5-4) and a Chiefs (7-2) team that continues to look like the class of not only the division but the conference. Leading a receiving corps ripe with injuries, Justin Herbert is trying to make life work with DeAndre Carter and Josh Palmer as his top two receivers. With Keenan Allen (hamstring) and Mike Williams (ankle) sidelined, Herbert has thrown 734 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. The Chargers are 1-2 over those last three games, and now look to keep their heads about .500 when they play host to the Chiefs on Sunday.
As the Chargers learn to work with what they have, the Chiefs continue to tap into new talent seemingly at will. Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco is fresh off his best performance of the season, rushing for 82 yards on a team-high 16 carries against the Jaguars. And recently acquired wide receiver Kadarius Toney combined for 90 yards in a touchdown in a game that saw JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) exit early on a scary hit. All these new weapons, and we haven’t even touched on tight end Travis Kelce (63-740-8), who remains one of the best offensive weapons in the NFL.
Before we jump into some of my favorite plays of the week, don’t forget that Sunday night’s matchup between the Chargers and Chiefs is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Austin Ekeler Total Yards
It’s been a strange season for Austin Ekeler, who has surpassed 60 rushing yards just once all season, with 173 of his 451 rushing yards coming in a single Week 5 matchup against the Browns. Ekeler brings added value to the Chargers’ offense through his ability in the passing game, with his 81 targets leading all running backs by a wide margin, but Ekeler has been bottled up over the last two weeks with Mike Williams sidelined.
Despite averaging 20 opportunities per game with Williams out, Ekeler has also been limited to 67 total yards per game over that span -- a steep drop from the 96.8 yards per game he’s averaging on the year. An underwhelming cast of receivers has allowed opposing defenses to key in on Ekeler and limit his offensive production, which is something the Chiefs did well in Week 2, when they held Ekeler to 94 yards and no touchdowns in the 27-24 defeat.
Ekeler is likely to continue to do damage through the air on Sunday as the Chiefs are allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (51.2) on the season. However, his rushing struggles extend beyond a lack of receivers to take pressure off the running game.
Per Football Outsiders, the Chargers rank 30th in the league in adjusted line yards (4.05) and are graded as the ninth-worst run-blocking unit (74.3) per PFF. Among qualified running backs, Ekeler ranks 20th with just five breakaway runs and has 39th in YCO/ATT at 2.68.
When it comes to volume, Ekeler’s workload is never in doubt, but he’s been limited as a rusher throughout most of the season. Benefitting from a dozen dump-off passes is expected, but if he’s unable to get things going on the ground, it’s easy to see a scenario in which the Chiefs keep him under 100 total yards on the day.
Pick: Austin Ekeler 80-94 yards
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards
The Chiefs’ offense is second in the league in passing DVOA (45.4%) and the Chargers’ defense is 12th in passing DVOA (-1.7%). In their last matchup, Patrick Mahomes threw for 235-2-0, but the 2018 NFL MVP has been on a tear of late.
Mahomes has surpassed 330 passing yards in each of his last four games and threw for 423-3-1 and 446-1-1 against the 49ers and Titans in back-to-back weeks. To say that Mahomes has gone nuclear would be putting it nicely. His 1,538 yards over that span are almost 500 more than the second-closest player, while his 10 touchdown passes leads the field by three or more, and his nine big-time throws per PFF are second only to Josh Allen and Tom Brady -- who are still pretty good last I checked.
Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs are also first in neutral pass rate (65%) and 13th in seconds per play (28.3). Part of Mahomes’ elite play has been due to the recent emergence of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has ranked sixth in receiving yards over that four-game span (358) while hauling in 24 passes and scoring twice. However, Smith-Schuster could be sidelined for Week 11 after exiting last week’s game with a concussion, which could affect how this pick plays out.
Assuming Smith-Schuster is out, Mahomes will need to rely on Travis Kelce (which isn’t meant to sound like a bad thing), and a mixed bag of receivers that consist of Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore. Mecole Hardman may be back in the fold but missed last week’s game with an abdominal issue.
Facing a familiar foe while boasting a solid pass defense, I don’t expect the Chargers to be the team that gives up the next 400-yard game to Mahomes, but he and the Chiefs are hard to stop once they get rolling. In eight games against the Chargers, Mahomes has thrown for 2,062-18-5, good, averaging 257.8 passing yards per game. Getting this one on the road, I think he hovers somewhere around the total, especially if JJSS is unable to suit up.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes 280-299 yards
Total Points
Currently tied for the highest-projected game total of the week, the books as the over/under for this matchup set at 50. The two sides combined for 51 points when they met back in Week 2, and according to our NBC Sports EDGE Edge Finder tool, these two teams have surpassed 60 points just once in their last five matchups dating back to 2020.
The over in this game is 2-3 since 2020, however, it’s 1-1 in games played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles -- which is where this weekend’s matchup will take place. Additionally, the highest-scoring matchup between these two teams over the last three years also took place at SoFi Stadium, in a game the Chiefs won 34-28.
Removing the league’s best quarterback from the elements can only mean good things for the league’s best quarterback and his offense. As a matter of fact, Mahomes’ two most-productive games against the Chargers both came on the road, in SoFi.
I like this game to hit the over, although it wouldn’t surprise me if Mahomes is the one steering the ship, as the Chiefs pull the majority of the weight to get it there. The Chargers’ banged-up offense and inability to support Ekeler in the running game should keep this one under 60 points, but this will be anything but a defensive matchup.
Pick: Total Points 52-55
