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Week 7 of Sunday Night Football features two teams in need of a win.
For the Dolphins, three-straight losses have sent them reeling after a 3-0 start, although those losses can be somewhat attributed to the loss of Tua Tagovailoa. After defeating the Bills in Week 4, Tagovailoa was knocked from the team’s Week 5 contest against Cincinnati, kickstarting their current three-game losing streak. Tagovailoa has reportedly cleared concussion protocol and will be treated as the starter ahead of Sunday night’s tilt with the Steelers
Fresh off an upset win over the Buccaneers, the Steelers are dealing with concussion concerns of their own. Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett was knocked from Sunday’s contest and replaced by Mitch Trubisky, but head coach Mike Tomlin has already confirmed that if Pickett is cleared he will start. At 2-4, the Steelers are vying for their second-straight win after proving last week that a team coach by Tomlin, even while decimated with injuries, can never be overlooked
Sunday night’s matchup between the Dolphins and Steelers is free to watch on NBC, so be sure to tune in. And don’t forget to play SN7 on the NBC Sports Predictor app, which is FREE, and offers you a chance to win or split a $100,000 guaranteed jackpot! The app offers other free-to-play games, including contests for the Premier League, MLB, NASCAR, IndyCar and College Football. Download it now and enjoy!
Here’s a look at some of my favorite plays for this week’s SN7 contest.
Kenny Pickett Passing Yards
Pickett’s status ahead of Sunday night will be one to monitor, but the NBC Sports Predictor app has Pickett’s passing yards prop listed.
Through six weeks, the Steelers have been one of the worst offensive teams in the league. They rank 30th in percentage of drives ending with an offensive score (28.4%) and are 29th in offensive yards per game (291.5). As far as passing goes, they rank 28th in passing yards per game (204.8), with Pickett averaging 197 yards per game in his two starts – which was boosted by a 327-yard performance in a 38-3 loss to the Bills.
The Steelers trailed 31-3 against the Bills at halftime and were forced into a pass-heavy approach the rest of the way. Pickett attempted 36 of his 52 pass attempts in the second half of the Steelers’ Week 5 loss to the Bills, with 206 of his 327 yards also coming in the final two quarters.
Defensively, the Dolphins have proven stout on the ground, but susceptible through the air. Miami ranks 25th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (256.7), 27th in points allowed per game (25.8) and is 31st in passing DVOA per Football Outsiders (23.4%).
Running back Najee Harris has struggled to get things going on the ground this season and could continue to struggle on Sunday – more on that soon.
As seven-point underdogs, the Steelers will likely face a negative game script in this one. Regardless of game script, Pittsburgh should want to throw against a team that’s ranked bottom-five in stopping the pass.
Even against a bad Dolphins defense, expectations should be tempered for the Steelers, whose passing attack is also bottom of the barrel.
PICK: Kenny Pickett 230-249 passing yards
Najee Harris Rushing Yards
Props to the Steelers for taking a High-T shot on Najee Harris in the first round of last year’s draft. Surely a 6-foot-1, 232-pound running back from Alabama is all a team needs to be nudged in the right direction.
If only it were that simple.
Harris, who was wildly inefficient last season (sorry folks) has only been further exposed in 2022, thanks in large to an offensive line that’s ranked 26th in adjusted line yards (4.10) and 30th in running back yards (3.45).
Harris’ lack of explosiveness only adds to his recent struggles, as the second-year back has just 16 breakaway yards on the season, and six carries of 10+ yards according to PFF. This may come as a surprise to some, but with 390 carries under his belt, Harris’ longest rush of his career is a 37-yard carry from last season.
This week, Harris faces a Miami defense that’s held it’s opponents to under 100 yards in three of six games and ranks second in rushing DVOA (-13.4%). Offensively, the Steelers also rank 31st in rushing DVOA (-21.4%).
This is a team that can’t run facing a team that’s excelled at stopping the run. Harris, who has rushed for 83-264-1 this season has yet to top 74 rushing yards in any game this season. I don’t see him surpassing that number this weekend.
PICK: Najee Harris 40-54 rushing yards
Tyree Hill Receiving Yards
Through six games, Tyreek Hill has caught 50 passes for 701 yards and two touchdowns. Amazingly, he’s on pace to shatter Calvin Johnson‘s single-season receiving yards record of 1,964 yards set back in 2012, despite playing almost three games with the likes of Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson at quarterback.
In four games with Tua Tagovailoa, Hill has averaged 11.8 targets per game, 8.3 receptions per game and 119.3 yards per game. During their 3-0 start, the Dolphins were tied for the sixth-highest pass rate in neutral game script (60%) and have an offense that ranks fifth in passing DVOA (32.8%).
Hill has three games of 160+ yards on the season and leads all receivers in yards per target at 10.8 (min. 50 targets). With his sights (possibly) set on an NFL record, I like Hill to go off in a primetime spot with his QB1 back under center.
PICK: Tyreek Hill 110+ receiving yards
