That’s right, I’m doing it.
I’m picking the Cleveland Browns +8.5 in Week 1 at the Baltimore Ravens.
(Jumps in shower to rinse off).
These are my favorite spots to bet in the first week of the NFL season, no matter how ugly they may appear on the surface. Matchups that pit an overachieving team against an underachieving team provide underdog bettors with immense value. Especially when the matchup is between two teams inside the same division.
It’s no secret the Ravens are going to be an overvalued football team in the 2020 season, especially early. Fresh off a 14-and-2 year and an MVP season for Lamar Jackson, bettors will have to pay a premium on them in most markets. For crying out loud, they’re 6-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at PointsBet Sportsbook.
I wouldn’t bet Baltimore to win the Super Bowl with your money. There are much better options on the board, like New Orleans at +1000, Seattle +1600 and the L.A. Rams +3300. Kansas City (and Patrick Mahomes) at +575, I’m in. Baltimore at +600, hard pass.
Meanwhile, nobody wants a piece of Cleveland this year. That’s because most people got burned last year after the Browns won the offseason Super Bowl and almost every analyst, pundit and wannabe wise guy picked them to make serious noise. Cleveland sputtered to a 6-and-10 record, removing the luster from 2018 and keeping the public away in 2020.
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Funny how that works, isn’t it?
Baltimore opened -9 at home in Week 1 and the nines are almost all gone. Bettors gobbled up +9 and +8.5 to the current consensus number of +8. I’m sorry, I can’t lay over a touchdown with a team that hasn’t done any in-game tackling in nine months. No thanks.
I would implore you to strike now if you agree on the Cleveland side. Please do it while numbers like +8 and +8.5 are still available. If you like Baltimore, hold out and see if you can get -7 or -7.5 closer to kickoff. Every half point counts.
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All in all, I know the Browns are going to be a better football team this year because Freddie Kitchens is long gone. What a colossal failure that was. Kevin Stefanski takes over at head coach and he’s going to look to ground-and-pound teams in the trenches behind a bolstered offensive line with their bulldozer Nick Chubb. A rejuvenated Kareem Hunt should be a much needed skill player with ample speed in space.
And if the run game gets going early, the ever accurate Baker Mayfield can sit back in the pocket and throw darts down the field off play action.
If Cleveland regains that swagger they had at the end of 2018, they’ll be dangerous.
Play on the Browns +8.5.
