Two weeks ago, we wrote about how NFL Overs were hitting at a 63 percent clip. Twenty of the season’s first 32 games went over the posted total for combined points.
According to Rotoworld’s Edge Finder, NFL Overs have now hit in 37 of 63 games (59%) to date, so the percentage has actually ticked down a little bit. That’s because bookmakers around the country are making their totals higher.
The average total has risen from 45.5 in Week 1 to 50.5 in Week 5.
“You just keep moving the totals up,” Circa Sports sportsbook manager and NFL savant Chris Bennett told NBC Sports. “It wasn’t like the numbers last week closed significantly higher than we opened them. Now that we’ve had four weeks of the season played, we’re just opening with higher totals."[[ad:athena]]
Bennett shot down the notion that people are walking into casinos and logging into apps to blindly bet NFL Overs. And he’s always believed that the market dictates the line and that money moves the market.
“I know there’s been a lot of talk about how the games are higher scoring and how bookmakers have to make all these huge adjustments,” Bennett said. “I don’t think it’s anywhere near that dramatic. It’s not like customers are coming in and betting the limit on every single game Over and then we just hold our position and lose. You take a bet and you make the appropriate line move.
“We’re not seeing an avalanche of Over money across the board. Based on what’s out there in the market, we can get Under money. It’s pretty simple to do that. Just go to a number that’s higher than everybody else. But I don’t think that’s ever the right strategy. We have respect for where the market is at and what side of the total your sharp customers are playing.”
Primetime games are almost always going to see more action on the Overs, that’s just the way it goes. Those lines have always been a little higher anyway, especially with teams like Kansas City and Green Bay. That tax is already built in.
Bookmakers will definitely have to inflate totals this season with teams like Dallas, Seattle and Minnesota. You won’t see many totals in the 40s with those three.
“You’ve got a few teams in particular where it’s just absurd,” Bennett declared. “The Cowboys have the fastest offense of any team in the NFL and they have no defense. The Seahawks have a great offense and bad defense. The Vikings have a bad defense and okay offense. It is what it is. Those totals are going to be in the mid-50s on a regular basis.”
