It took five weeks, but we finally lost an NFL teaser on the Patriots and 49ers. We should probably fire another one this weekend. Those are the rules.
If you’re new around here, a teaser is a bet that allows you to adjust the point spread six points whichever way you choose. You must select a minimum of two bets, but you have to win all the bets in the teaser to cash the ticket.
While some people like to maximize their payout and do four or five-team teasers, your chances of winning get increasingly more difficult with every extra team you add. I’ll stick with the standard two-teamer and tease through the most important numbers in football – 3 and 7.[[ad:athena]]
The Steelers Defense is a unit that I don’t want to bet against. They rank in the top five in multiple advanced metrics including a No. 1 mark in run defense. That doesn’t bode well for a Titans running attack that’s already without left tackle Taylor Lewan. Derrick Henry is going to be impossible to stop, but Pittsburgh is going to limit him and dare Ryan Tannehill to beat them over the top.
Oddsmakers say the game is a coin flip and I’m in agreement. So let’s tease!
We can take the undefeated Steelers from +1 through 3, 4, 6 to a nice number at +7. That’s what I’m talking about. This game is going to be a war and I don’t expect much separation on other side. I’m thinking 24-23 or 28-27 either way. You should be more than safe with seven points in your back pocket.
The other game makes me nervous and that’s okay. It’s fine to feel that way and it’s more than normal to get a little squeamish when you’re picking against Aaron Rodgers. Thing is, this is more of a bet against the Packers Defense than it is against one player. Green Bay is 30th in total defense this year according to Football Outsiders. They’re not good against the pass or the run.
Could Green Bay win this game by double digits? Of course.
But I like my chances a lot in a teaser and I’ll gladly play the math. Let’s kick up the Texans spread from +3.5 through 4, 6, 7, 8 all the way up to +9.5. Houston has been freed from the reigns of Bill O’Brien and they’re a loose football team right now. Deshaun Watson will be a problem with his arm and his legs and there’s plenty of speed down the field.
Oh and the Packers are one of the biggest public sides on the board with over 80 percent of reported bet tickets on Green Bay laying a short number on the road. Let’s go.
Tease the Steelers +7 to the Texans +9.5.
