Home field advantage in the National Football League gets less and less important every day. And it’s not because of the lack of fans at stadiums all around the country.
According to Rotoworld’s Edge Finder, home teams last year were 113-140-and-8 (44.6%) against the spread. If you blindly bet on home teams in 2019-20, you lost 37 units. To say that’s crushing to a bankroll is an unbelievable understatement.
So far this year, NFL home teams are 24-24 ATS (50%) and down 2.2 units. That’s obviously a small sample size and there’s a long way to go.
For decades, Vegas bookmakers said that home field in an NFL game was worth between 2.6 and 2.8 points. Mathematical wizards have tried to poke holes in that logic for years and the proof has finally risen to the top of the pudding.[[ad:athena]]
“Ed Feng is a guy I really respect,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told NBC Sports. “He’s a very thorough mathematical modeler and handicapper. According to his numbers, home field is a broad generalization and it’s only worth 1.7 points. I tend to agree with that.”
1.7 points!
“You see the numbers come out and it’s almost like there’s a home field advantage built in and I’m not sure there should be,” Andrews added.
Andrews is one of many bookmakers around the country that has been in this racket for decades. He’s been stunned at how successful the bettors have been through the first three weeks.
“The years all sort of run together at this point, but this is definitely one of the worst starts to a season I’ve ever had behind a counter.”
Lastly, I had to throw Andrews a curveball because his perspective and story telling are second to none. I enjoy our conversations very much. So I asked my Eastern Orthodox cousin a very simple question.
How good is Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes?
“Whew,” Andrews exclaimed. “If Mahomes stays healthy, he’s on that Dan Marino trajectory. I think at some point, some guys might figure out some ways to slow him down a little bit. Good luck though. Not only is he amazing, but he’s got great personnel around him and great coaching. He’s going to be hard to stop.”
