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BEARS AT STEELERS (-7): O/U 39
Justin Fields versus Ben Roethlisberger on Monday Night Football -- let’s go!
In Mike Tomlin‘s career, the Steelers are 17-4 on the ML (81%) when playing on Monday Night Football, but when it comes to covering the spread, well, they are only 11-10 ATS (52%).
That is not good and I am a Steelers fan. Pittsburgh has repeatedly failed to prepare for teams with losing records or teams that are not as talented as they are. The Chicago Bears fit that mold.
The last five quarterbacks the Steelers have faced on Monday Night Football were:
Ryan Finley
Andy Dalton
Alex Smith
Daniel Jones
Ryan Fitzpatrick
You would think the Steelers would be 5-0, right?
Nope, 3-2 on the ML and 2-3 ATS. Two of the outright wins were courtesy of backup quarterback Mason Rudolph.
The Bears are live dogs to win this outright as Steelers have lost their last two MNF games with Big Ben. Chicago is 9-6 on the ML in the past 15 MNF games (60%) and 2-2 on the ML and ATS with Matt Nagy,
Pittsburgh is 12-12-1 ATS in the last 25 games against teams with losing records (50%) and 24-24-2 ATS in the past 50 with Tomlin as the head coach (50%).
The only trend that has paid off for Pittsburgh bettors has been the Under, that’s where the cash flow has come in versus losing teams.
I bought the half-point for the +7 (-120), but we probably won’t need it.
Chicago is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 Monday Night Football matches, but lost three straight after covering four straight.
Nagy is 2-2 ATS and on the ML when coaching Chicago on Monday Night Football. The Under is 3-1 in those four games. With the total at 39, we have missed the best of the number possible.
I would have preferred 42 for this matchup. but 39 is more than likely a fair price.
I would do a teaser of Bears +14 and Under 46 if you like the Under, otherwise, play Chicago +7.
Pick: Bears +7 (1u)
NBC’s player prop model shows the most value on Steeers’ Najee Harris and Dionate Johnson, plus Bears’ Darnell Mooney.
Harris is projected to record 144.4 total yards and 1.1 touchdowns on Monday night. Harris’ rushing prop is 79.5 yards and his receiving yards at 29.5. The model likes both to go Over.
Johnson’s predicted to own most of Big Ben’s yardage with 8.3 receptions and 145.8 yards. Mooney comes in only 20 yards higher than his prop, which seems like nothing after Harris and Johnsons’ predictions.
Watch Bet The Edge: Blitzing the Board with myself, Drew Dinsick, Corey Parson and Jay Croucher break down one-hour of NFL Week 9 betting advice, our picks and more HERE.
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