Who are the favorites to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award?
Tight end Rob Gronkowski is the NFL CPOY betting favorite. Gronk missed the entire 2019 season after retiring following winning Super Bowl LIII with New England. He has been reunited with Tom Brady with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and comes in at +200.
Second on the NFL CPOY odds board is Pittsburgh Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger set franchise records for passing yards (5,129) and touchdowns (34) in 2018, but missed almost all of last year after suffering an elbow injury in Week 2.
Who are some long shots who could win the NFL CPOY Award?
Baker Mayfield had a year to forget in 2019 but don’t forget he had a terrific debut season in 2018. With the Cleveland Browns adding tight end Austin Hooper and offensive tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills, Mayfield has no excuses this year and looks like a steal at +3,300.
If you’re looking on the defensive side of the ball, Los Angeles Chargers’ safety Derwin James is solid value at +1,200. James was arguably the best safety in the NFL as a rookie in 2018 but missed most of last year with a stress fracture in his foot. He returned for the Bolts final five games of the season and made a big impact.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting odds
| Player | NFL CPOY Betting Odds |
|---|---|
| Rob Gronkowski | +200 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | +400 |
| Matthew Stafford | +700 |
| J.J. Watt | +700 |
| A.J. Green | +1,200 |
| Derwin James | +1,200 |
| Alex Smith | +1,400 |
| Antonio Brown | +2,000 |
| Nick Foles | +2,000 |
| Myles Garrett | +2,000 |
| Todd Gurley | +2,000 |
| Cam Newton | +2,000 |
| DeSean Jackson | +2,500 |
| Bradley Chubb | +3,300 |
| David Johnson | +3,300 |
| Baker Mayfield | +3,300 |
| Trent Williams | +3,300 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | +3,300 |
| Akiem Hicks | +8,000 |
| C.J. Mosley | +8,000 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | +10,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting Trends
• Over the last 18 years, the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to quarterbacks on 12 occasions.
• Although Ryan Tannehill won the award last season after bouncing back from a poor 2018 season, in recent years the NFL CPOY Award has been handed out to players coming off significant injuries. Over a five year period from 2014 to 2018 every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year.
• Only won player has ever won this award more than once (Chad Pennington in 2006 and 2008). The betting favorite this season (Gronkowski) and a player tied for third on the odds board (Matthew Stafford) have previously won the award.
Who are previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners?
| Year | NFL CPOY winner |
|---|---|
| 2019 | Ryan Tannehill |
| 2018 | Andrew Luck |
| 2017 | Keenan Allen |
| 2016 | Jordy Nelson |
| 2015 | Eric Berry |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski |
| 2013 | Philip Rivers |
| 2012 | Peyton Manning |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford |
| 2010 | Michael Vick |
| 2009 | Tom Brady |
| 2008 | Chad Pennington |
How to bet on NFL awards odds?
Here are a few tips to keep in mind when wagering on NFL awards betting odds.
Change your strategy at different points in the season
NFL awards odds will be adjusted by sportsbooks as the season goes on. In the preseason and the early weeks of the regular season, betting on dark horses can prove very profitable. As the season continues, expect to see odds tighten around the favorites. At that point, it becomes wise to focus on the players near the top of the odds board and betting big underdogs is unwise.
Look for value with underdogs
Live long shots can provide tremendous value. Look at younger players on the verge of breaking out, or guys that have already been playing at a high level but could take the next step now that they are in an ideal situation with a new team, coach or system. Other players that can give a great payout are established stars coming off under-performing seasons due to injuries or other factors.
Follow the narrative
When placing futures bets on individual awards, keep in mind that voters, not a scoreboard, are often the deciding factor. Voters can be influenced by a variety of factors, including media coverage and public opinion. Consider what the media narrative is for a particular season and which players they seem to be rooting for and against.
Research historical trends
Historical trends, especially recent ones, can give you a good idea of which way voters tend to lean. For example, the NFL MVP has been handed out to a quarterback in 12 of the last 13 seasons. Identifying those trends is a good way to seperate the true contenders from the pretenders.
Where can I bet on NFL awards?
Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on NFL awards and odds generally begin to appear after free agency and the NFL Draft. Check out the NFL futures odds at the best sportsbooks available where you live.
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