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Sunday Prop Shop Week 18: Fade Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara

Alvin Kamara

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.

Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. Let’s get to it.

Marvin Jones Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-105)

Jones is even on this prop on the year but his opportunities are trending downward on an offense already on life support. Despite getting to play one game without Laviska Shenault on the field, the emergence of Laquon Treadwell has taken volume off the table for Jones. His target share and air yards share have both dipped over the past six weeks. If Laquon Treadwell can steal targets from a player, betting on that player’s unders feels right.

Alvin Kamara Under 4.5 Receptions (-131)

In seven Taysom Hill starts that he’s been active for, Kamara has nearly disappeared as a pass-catcher. He has averaged 3.1 catches in those games but that number is buoyed by a single, 10-catch performance. Betting the under on Kamara with this line would leave you at 5-2 in those games.

Michael Carter Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Carter has topped this line in five of his previous seven starts, even doing so after playing only a quarter last week because of a concussion. The Jets will also be attacking Buffalo on the ground for as long as possible as that’s how the Bills are most beatable. They rank second in passing EPA per play on defense. Their run-defense ranks 13th in EPA per play. Tevin Coleman is back but should play a reduced role, as most players have in their first game back from the COVID list.

Ryan Tannehill Over 215.5 Yards (-110)

This number has already risen since PointsBet posted in around 205 yards but the value remains on the over. Houston ranks 28th in yards per pass play allowed and Pro Football Focus has them graded as the No. 31 team in coverage. Tannehill’s season-long average is almost exactly this line but that number includes a handful of games without A.J. Brown. Only looking at Brown’s active outings, Tannehill is averaging 221 yards per game. With the Titans just needing a win to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC, expect Tannehill to light up the Texans.

Trevor Lawrence Under 20.5 Completions (-115)

Lawrence was crushed by the Colts in his first date with them. Indianapolis held him to a 46 completion rate and he averaged a pitiful 4.6 yards per attempt. The Colts’ defense ranks as an above-average unit in coverage, per PFF, and sits above league-average in opponent completion rate. In a game that can give the Colts a playoff bid and the Jags (with a loss) the first overall pick, look for Lawrence to flop one last time this season.