The Super Bowl is finally here, and Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin are ready to break the game down like they have all season.
*All lines taken from the Westgate Superbook on Thursday morning
Rams vs Patriots (-2.5) 56.5-point total
Rich: With both road teams winning in the Championship Round for the first time since 2012, we have a Rams versus Patriots matchup in the Super Bowl. This is the ninth Super Bowl appearance for the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick Dynasty, and while some football fans (not me) may have some Patriots postseason fatigue, history suggests this Super Bowl will be a highly-entertaining and competitive game.
For as dominant as they’ve been overall since 2000, New England hasn’t been invincible in the Super Bowl. The lost outright as 4.5-point favorites to the Eagles last season, dug a 28-3 hole the year prior against the Falcons, and failed to close their perfect season attempt in 2007. For as much of a boogeyman as the Patriots have been, they have not just come into Super Bowl games and squashed their competition. All eight of the previous Super Bowl appearances involving Brady and Belichick have been decided by eight points or fewer with six of those decided by four or fewer points.
This is the first time, however, the Patriots are giving fewer than a field goal as a favorite in the Super Bowl. Although the Patriots are 3-5 against the spread during this run, all five of their straight-up victories were by three or more points. They’ve consistently played tight games in the Super Bowl, but it’s still unlikely that the points come into play here if they remain 2.5-point favorites.
The Rams have also consistently played entertaining and competitive games against playoff-caliber teams this season. Los Angeles played nine games against playoff teams this season. Six of those were decided by eight points or fewer. The downside there for Rams bettors is the three losses they had in those games all came by seven or more points.
From an actual game stance, the Rams match up well with the Patriots and can definitely win this game. Without the full three points, however, you just bet them on the money line. Even if you get the extra half point in some books, I still believe the money line is the play to make if you’re betting the Rams side since it’s unlikely you do better than a push with a Rams loss while the places I’ve checked, the money line as opposed to getting the full three points is significantly more favorable.
We’ve seen the Super Bowl play out in favor for offenses heavily in recent seasons. Five of the past six Super Bowls have gone over the game total, and we’re talking about games that involved some of the best defenses over that span. Over that stretch, the Super Bowl has averaged a combined 56.3 points scored. Outside of the 34-point game between the Broncos and Panthers in 2015, they have averaged 60.8 combined points.
The Patriots themselves have been heavily involved in these recent shootouts. Each of their past three Super Bowl appearances has featured 52 or more combined points, with the past two featuring 62 and 74 combined points. The bookmakers have not only accounted for that but also the high-scoring season we’ve just witnessed by setting this game at a 56.5-point total. I lean the over hitting here in a vacuum, but I also don’t find the margin for hitting 57-plus points wide enough to take advantage of. A lot more can go wrong to push the under here at this total, while basically one specific game outcome can get us to the over.
TL;DR: I’m leaving the game total alone here while the Patriots at -2.5 or -3 at even money or slightly below would be my official pick for the game line. If playing the Rams, you bet on them winning outright since you’re getting +125 or better compared to -115 or worse with the points and the low probability of those points coming into play with an outright Rams loss.
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Raymond: A Championship Round disaster has brought my playoff record right in line with a betting season I hope to quickly forget, making it tough to get too excited about laying down money on the tightest line of the season. Then again, this is my last chance to bet on football until August – unless an angel hands down some AAF lines – so I have to have at least some action on the game.
The first thing to note is history tells us this game will likely be close. The Patriots have played in eight Super Bowls during the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. Six of those have been decided by three points or fewer, one of the other two was the first overtime game in Super Bowl history, and the Eagles scored nine points in the final 2:25 last year to make it an eight-point game.
New England’s total history is more mixed, but there has been a clear recent trend. Four of their first five appearances in the Super Bowl went under the total with the lone exception their 2003 win which closed at 38 points. However, each of the last three has gone over with an average point total of 62.7. Their game against Atlanta two years ago featured 62 points while last year’s matchup with the Eagles featured 74. Seven of the last 10 Super Bowls have gone over the total including five of the last six.
From an on-the-field perspective, one of the most interesting matchups will be the Patriots’ dominant offensive line against Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, who has taken his game to another level over the last several weeks. New England’s line was one of the best pass-blocking units in the regular season and have yet to allow a sack in the playoffs. That said, the long-standing game plan to disrupt Brady is interior pressure, and the Rams led the league in interior pressure rate this season according to NFL Research. It has to be noted the Patriots were able to shut down Chris Jones, who recorded 15.5 sacks this season, in the AFC Championship game, but stopping Donald and Suh is a different challenge.
Running the football could be an answer as the Patriots look to slow down Donald and Suh. The Rams ranked 28th in rush defense according to Football Outsider’s DVOA and gave up 5.1 yards per attempt during the regular season, the worst mark in the league and just behind a Chiefs Defense the Patriots ran over last week. Given how they have played so far this postseason, it is a good bet New England will attack that weakness. After rushing on 44.5 percent of their plays during the regular season, the Patriots have run the ball on 47.8 percent of their plays the last two games including 50 percent of their first-quarter snaps. A similar game plan makes sense against the Rams, especially because the play-action passing game should prove valuable – the Rams were 31st in yards allowed while the Patriots were 1st in yards gained per play-action play according to Football Outsiders.
The battle in the trenches will also be interesting on the other side of the ball. New England’s run defense is better than the one on the other sideline, but it is certainly not a shut-down unit. The Rams struggled to get their rushing attack working against an outstanding Saints front, but they ran roughshod over the Cowboys, 49ers, and Cardinals the three games prior, topping 250 yards twice and averaging 232 yards per game. Especially with Todd Gurley getting an extra week of rest, the Rams should be able to run if they so choose. More than that, though, Gurley specifically should play an important role in the passing game. The Patriots gave up the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs in the regular season and just gave up five catches for 66 yards and two touchdowns to Damien Williams in the AFC Championship game.
Like with the Patriots, a likely successful rushing attack should help set up an effective play-action game for the Rams. New England was not as bad against run fakes, but the Rams unsurprisingly utilize play action more than any other team in the league and have been almost as successful as the Patriots this year. That said, it is possible to knock Jared Goff off his rhythm and disrupt the passing game with an effective pass rush – Goff was 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks in quarterback rating under pressure during the regular season and dead last so far in the postseason according to Pro Football Focus. The Patriots’ pass rush was mostly toothless during the regular season, but they have turned up the pressure in the postseason, sacking Patrick Mahomes four times in the AFC Title game. Especially given the talent the Patriots have at corner, the Rams’ quality line will have to protect Goff better than that to keep the offense moving.
Ultimately, this game is too close to call with any level of certainty. Simply based on the matchups, the Patriots would seem to have a better shot to slow down the Rams’ attack than vice versa, giving them the edge, but this feels like a back-and-forth game which will come down to a possession or two much like the games last week. I would take the Patriots if forced to choose, but I will just bet the over and hope for a high-scoring game.
Pick: Over 56.5
