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Chase Edmonds O/U 38.5 Rushing Yards vs. Packers
If you have not heard, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out for Green Bay. No Adams or Lazard for the Pack puts Green Bay at a major disadvantage offensively.
When that happens, the game script could favor the run for the favorite, so taking a look at the Arizona running backs, I notice Chase Edmonds line is awfully low.
Edmonds’s rushing prop of 38.5 is slightly lower than expected, especially since it is 42.5 and 43.5 on DraftKings and BetMGM. Thank you, PointsBet.
Edmonds has eclipsed 39 rushing yards in five out of seven games (71%) this season. Green Bay allows the ninth-most rushing yards (846) and the third-most yards per carry (4.9), so I like the sound of that.
The Cardinals’ back has 37 evaded tackles on the year (8th) and six breakaway runs (5th), per PlayerProfiler.
As you can see below, Edmonds has one of the best game scripts (2nd), run blocking (4th), and light front carry rate (8th) -- all positives to 39 or more rushing yards.
His versatility as a receiver often gives him positive gains because of the defensive play call or scheme.
NBC’s model predicts Edmonds to lead the game in rushing yards with 84.6.
That projection makes his rushing the prop the best value in the game, per the model. It makes a lot of sense, considering he should see a healthy dose of rushing attempts.
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Green Bay allowed seven running backs to rush for 37 yards and six to surpass 50-plus on the ground out of 10 that I would consider eligible.
Antonio Gibson: 51 yards
Khalil Herbert: 97 yards
Samaje Perine: 59 yards
Joe Mixon: 33 yards
Najee Harris: 62 yards
Trey Sermon: 31 yards
D’Andre Swift: 37 yards
Jamaal Williams: 25 yards
Tony Jones: 50 yards
Alvin Kamara: 83 yards
I believe Edmonds can add his name to the list, James Conner (48.5) potentially as well.
Let’s roll with Edmonds at Over 38.5 rushing yards (-115) on Thursday Night Football -- playable up to 44.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Chase Edmonds Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (1.5u)
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