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We are back! Thursday Night Football! My favorite time of the year. Here is how last year went...
Just a reminder... Thursday Night Football is one week away!
— Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) September 2, 2021
Last year 🔥
28-9 (75.6%) +24.36u
Let’s not disappoint in 2021 👊🏽@NBCSportsBet @NBCSportsEdge#NFL #NFLtwitter #playerprops pic.twitter.com/PmGZQ1MEEj
I owe all my TNF success to being born on a Thursday.
With that being said, let’s rock and roll all 2021!
First up, Dak Prescott.
Dak Prescott O/U 39.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys will be without six-time Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin and backup Brandon Knight because of COVID protocols.
That limits what Ezekiel Elliott can do versus that Tampa Bay’s front seven and with a spread of -7.5 and -8’s out there, we can safely assume Dallas will be playing front beyond at most points.
With that being said, playing from behind bodes well for pass attempts and without Martin, the short passing game should be necessary.
In 2020, Prescott opened the season with 39, 47, 57 and 58 pass attempts before injuring his ankle in the fifth outing.
Here is a look from NBC’s model and Prescott’s game log. His averages are intriguing, especially the 43.2 pass attempts over the previous past 10 games.
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Over his last 12 games, Prescott has tossed 40 or more passes in eight (66.7%) and dating back to the previous 20 healthy starts -- he has 10 games of 40-plus pass attempts (50%).
The Buccaneers are a great defense with tons of returners that can make it difficult on any quarterback, but Tampa Bay’s focus should be keeping everything in front of them versus Dallas.
Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are a dangerous 1-2 punch that can stretch the field and run routes with the best of the league. Dallas also has Michael Gallup, Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz and rookie Noah Brown alongside Zeke and Tony Pollard as Prescott’s weapons.
Entering his sixth season, Prescott’s pass attempts have been ridiculous the past three years. In 2018, Prescott averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game and 37.2 in 2019, his last 16-game season.
Before his injury versus the Giants in Week 5 of year three (2020), Prescott averaged 50.2 pass attempts per game through four starts.
Prescott finished with 44.4 pass attempts on the year because of that injury-riddled start versus New York. The graph is courtesy of PlayerProfiler.
Seven out of 16 starting quarterbacks hit the Over (43.7%) versus Tampa Bay last season, but there were issues to that number.
Matthew Stafford got hurt, so Detroit played backups. New Orleans twice played and allowed Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill to throw passes with Drew Brees healthy.
Plus, Denver had two quarterbacks combine for 39 pass attempts versus Tampa. So, that 7-of-16 (43.7%) number is more like 7-of-13 to the Over (53.8%).
The Bucs won nine of their 11 games in 2020 by seven or more points and eight games by 10 or more.
Since 2020, Prescott has lost 11 games under center. In those 11 contests, Prescott threw 39 or more pass attempts in nine of them (81.8%), including six straight.
We do not need completions, I do not care about drops and it does not even matter if Prescott hits a defender right in the hands -- just throw it beyond the line of scrimmage 40 times.
I would not play this past 40.5 and if your number is 40.5, just play it for one unit.
Pick: Dak Prescott Over 39.5 Pass Attempts (2u)
NBC Model Spread and O/U Predictions
The NBC model shows medium value on the ML for Tampa Bay, so if you are a ML parlay bettor, this one seems like a good bet to start your season off.
The Super Bowl winner from the season before is 13-5-2 ATS (65%) in Week 1 over the last 20 years, so if you wondered why the spread climbed from -6.5 at opening to -8 and -8.5, that is why.
There is 93% of the money handle on Tampa Bay’s ML and 71% of the bets.
The O/U has ticked down a point from 52.5 to 51.5, but two of the top trends for either team points to the Over.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code VAUGHN10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
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PROPS with Chris Godwin‘s NEWS
Chris Godwin sat out of practice with a quad injury on Tuesday but is expected to play Thursday. The quad injury was the first time 99% of people heard about this, so it could be a precaution or smoke -- but who knows until Wednesday night or Thursday.
Pending his status and whether or not he is a full-go, here are two plays I HAVE NOT played yet, but more than likely will, depending on Godwin’s news. The update will be in this article and on my Twitter @VmoneySports.
O.J. Howard O/U 1.5 Receptions vs. Cowboys
This O/U 1.5 reception prop will likely be the only time we get this all season. Starting Week 2 and on, I predict this prop will be 2.5 and 3.5, depending on Chris Godwin‘s status moving forward.
While I expect Godwin to be fine long-term, Howard could be the Bucs’ TE1 and should be if he is 100-percent.
Before his season-ending Achilles injury, Howard went 3-1 (75%) this prop with games of four, one, three and three receptions, per NBC’s player prop model. Howard also had 36 or more yards in three of the four games last season.
Of course, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski could vie for catches, but Howard’s presence makes this offense more dynamic and dangerous.
In 2019, Howard grabbed two or more catches in 9-of-14 (64.2%) games and 12 of his last 18 games (66.7%). Of those 18 games, Howard went for 32 or more yards in 12 (66.7%), giving some value to the 18.5 receiving yard prop.
Howard averaged 13.3 ypc last season and 13.5 in 2019 after back-to-back 16.6 ypc seasons in his first two years.
When Tom Brady was asked about Howard, he said, “I think he’s prepared to have a great season.”
Brady continued, “He’s worked really hard through training camp, been available to the team. Very hard worker, doing all the right things. So, really happy to have him back out there.”
The goat endorsed a big year and so did Bruce Arians. Arians said, “the sky is the limit” for Howard in 2021, and I have to agree. Howard received significant playing time towards the end of preseason, including six targets for three receptions, so they have been working him back into NFL game shape.
I like the chance Howard could grab two receptions in the first half or three quarters to build some confidence coming back from a major injury.
Brady also loves big targets in the red zone and Howard is the most athletic tight end, giving him some value at +300 to score a touchdown in his first game back.
Antonio Brown O/U 4.5 Receptions
Next man up. If Godwin is out or limited, Antonio Brown‘s Week 1 stock shoots through the roof.
I’m not expecting a 10-catch 100-yard game like when he was with Pittsburgh, but five catches is possible in this Tampa Bay offense.
I know it is crowded for pass-catchers in Tampa and Brady should be playing with a lead come the fourth quarter, but Brown is a short, intermediate and deep threat for the Bucs.
Brown grabbed five or more catches in 6-of-11 (54.5%) games and four-plus in 7-of-11 (63.6%), counting the playoffs.
In Tampa, where they are tonight, Brown went 5-2 (71.4%) in the regular season and playoffs to the Over 4.5 receptions, per NBC’s player prop model.
The only teams that have kept Brown Under 4.5 receptions overall since joining the Bucs are the Saints (twice), Chiefs, Lions and WFT.
Tampa Bay beat Detroit 47-7 so that Under is dismissable. His two regular-season Unders at home came in a 38-3 blowout loss to the Saints and a 27-24 loss to the Chiefs. The last two Unders were against New Orleans and WFT in the postseason.
Honestly, AB could do this a lot this season and as a Steelers fan, I hope he does for his sake.
I have not heard much about Brown all offseason (which is a good thing), and it seems he is back to solely focusing on football for the first time in a long time.
If Godwin is limited or out, open your app ASAP and bet Brown to go Over 4.5 receptions.
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