There has been a sudden and seismic shift in the past 24 hours regarding the top of the 2023 NFL Draft. Bryce Young is still the favorite to go first overall but Will Levis is climbing with a bullet. The shift has been so dramatic that sportsbooks have suspended that market. Is this another GameStop or is there some real merit to the Reddit post and subsequent rumblings?
Let’s look at what we know. We know Carolina traded up in the Draft with Chicago to get the quarterback at the top of their draft board. We think we know Bryce Young is at the top of their draft board. We think we know this because Panthers’ ownership has alluded to being enamored with the Alabama signal-caller AND Young has stopped doing interviews with NFL teams.
Sorting Through the Levis Smoke
So why is Levis climbing up the board at sportsbooks? Is the source on Reddit reliable? Again, what do we know? Unlike with the top pick and Carolina, there is no evidence linking Carolina to Levis or linking the Panthers to another trade involving the top pick. There are strong rumors that both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans like the Kentucky quarterback. Those rumors may be facts, but the exercise is not about who is drafting Levis, but Will Levis be drafted first overall.
Could this be 2018 all over again? The two drafts are shaping up as similar when it comes to the quarterbacks.
(Watch more: How the Rodgers’ trade affects the Jets and the Packers)
In 2018 (not unlike this year’s draft), none of the top quarterbacks were viewed as sure things. Sam Darnold was viewed by most experts as the probable first overall pick. Is Bryce Young this year’s Sam Darnold? It was not until the final moments prior to the Draft that word leaked of Baker Mayfield going first overall to the Cleveland Browns. Is Will Levis this year’s Baker Mayfield? Darnold and Mayfield were two of five quarterbacks drafted in the first round that year. Mayfield went first to Cleveland followed by Darnold (#3 to NY Jets), Josh Allen (#7 to Buffalo), Josh Rosen (+10 to Arizona) and Lamar Jackson (#32 to Baltimore).
Betting the Quarterback Market
As was the case in 2018, the Over/Under in the quarterback prop market in 2023 is set at 4.5 signal-callers to be selected in Round 1. If former Tennessee Volunteer Hendon Hooker can find his way into the first round, the OVER should cash again this year as its widely assumed that Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud are already assured of being Day One selections.
The comparison of the 2018 and 2023 Drafts could continue with a discussion involving Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. Same for Quenton Nelson and Pete Skoronski. Six first round picks in 2018 were cornerbacks and safeties. Pro Football Focus recently mocked six going Thursday night in Round 1.
(Watch more: Chris Simms Top 8 Mock Draft)
Anyway, the primary focus as it is every Sunday in the fall will be on the quarterbacks: when will they be drafted and by whom? The sweat is real for each of them and for bettors.
If you join the sweat fest, fight through the fog of fake news and bet responsibly.
