Vaughn Dalzell shares his MNF player props in the Minnesota Vikings versus the San Francisco 49ers Week 7 matchup.
49ers (-7) at Vikings: O/U 43.5
Monday Night Football features primetime Kirk Cousins and the Vikings taking on one of the hottest names in the MVP market, Brock Purdy, and the 49ers.
The three biggest names in this game will feature only one. Christian McCaffrey is banged up but playing, while WRs Deebo Samuel and Justin Jefferson are out. Rather than picking a side or total, I am focusing on props in this game with the uncertainty.
Purdy has not played an NFL game in a dome yet, so this will be the first time. That will benefit him and likely be an upgrade after playing in Cleveland and with ugly weather.
The 49ers’ QB is 4-2 to the Under when it comes to O/U 19.5 Completions, but I like this spot for an Over. Purdy is one of the most efficient passers in the NFL, hitting 67.5% of his passes and a 65% or better completion percentage in five out of six games (Cleveland lone Under).
Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and a few others should be locked in enough to get Purdy over 20 completions and the QB is a good candidate to go Over 239.5 passing yards. The Vikings permit the second-highest completion percentage in the NFL (75.2%), so Purdy shouldn’t have many issues.
Minnesota allowed four out of six QBs to hit 20-plus completions with Jalen Hurts and Tyson Bagent (first career appearance, played second half) being the two Unders.
Alex Mattison is one player who has a negative matchup on MNF. The Vikings RB has gone Under 45.5 rushing yards four out of six times this season with the lone Overs against the Panthers and Chargers. In Mattison’s four Unders, he posted 132 yards on 45 carries (2.9 ypc).
The 49ers will be a challenge for Mattison, who allow the second-fewest rushing yards (481) and 4.0 ypc. I expect the 49ers to sniff out the ground game early and force Cousins to air it out.
I played Mattison Under 45.5 rushing yards at -110 odds and Purdy Over 19.5 completions at -115 odds. Shop around for the best lines. I would go to Under 40.5 rushing yards on Mattison and Over 20.5 completions for Purdy.
Pick: Alex Mattison Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (1u), Brock Purdy Over 19.5 Completions (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 30-19-1 (61.2%) +7.2 units
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