Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet on the AFC West showdown between the Raiders and Chiefs, plus the Giants hosting the Patriots.
Chiefs (-9.5) at Raiders: O/U 43.5
Kansas City is coming off a home loss to the Eagles and I doubt they lose back-to-back games like most people in America.
The Chiefs are 9-1 on the ML and 6-4 ATS versus the Raiders with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB and get a Raiders squad that is 4-3 over its last seven games with a lot of changes.
The Raiders’ offense is struggling to establish the run, ranking last in explosive runs. The Vegas offense also turns the ball over an NFL-high 18.3% of its possessions. Aidan O’Connell has taken over and gone 40-of-68 passing (58.8%) with 2 TDs to 4 INTs in the last two games (MIA, NYJ).
O’Connell will have a hard day’s work ahead of him against the Chiefs. Kansas City has one of the better third-down defenses (2.9 yards per play on 3rd down, 1st) and forced three fumbles in each of their two games coming off a loss.
The Chiefs are a different beast in general and won by 7 and 8 points against the Jaguars and Dolphins coming off losses earlier this season.
I played Kansas City -9.5 at -108 odds and would go out to -10. Las Vegas is a team that Andy Reid and Mahomes have success against and when you look at the Raiders’ home games (NYG, NYJ, NE, GB, PIT), Las Vegas hasn’t hosted a real contender either.
Pick: Chiefs -9.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Patriots (-4.5) at Giants: O/U 34.0
Both of these offenses have scored points when starting in their own territory at the lowest rate in the league and rank last in the NFL with 14.1 PPG (NE) and 13.5 PPG (NYG).
The total is set at 34.0 and we are going Under in this matchup. It’s Tommy Devito and Mac Jones as the starting QBs, which is not inspiring if you want points.
The Giants rank last in the NFL with 6.8 PPG at home this season and it shouldn’t get better. DeVito completed 10-of-20 passes for 2.7 yards per attempt while taking 10 sacks against the blitz so far this season. New England should bring pressure and zone, which Washington failed to do last week.
Mac Jones is expected to start but had X-rays done after the loss to the Colts, so chances are Bailey Zappe could get some time under center and we have two backup QBs. New England ranks 31st with 11.6 PPG on the road this year, so a QB change might be needed.
I played the Under 34.0 at -108 odds and would go down to 33.0. The Patriots have scored 17 or fewer points in 8 out of 10 games, while the Giants posted 17 or less points in 9 of 11 contests this year.
Pick: Under 34.0 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 51-24-1 (68%) +24.45 units
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
