Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why he is backing a trio of player props on Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, and Derrick Henry, plus team totals in Jaguars vs. Chiefs and 49ers vs. Rams.
Joe Burrow O/U 265.5 Passing Yards vs. Ravens
Joe Burrow has played in two regular season home games against the Ravens and won them both (27-16, 41-21). However, Lamar Jackson did not play in either contest, which is why I laid off the spread or ML.
Week 2 is a major bounce-back week for the Bengals who couldn’t do anything offensively in Week 1 at the Browns. Cleveland won 24-3 and Burrow was held to a career-low 82 passing yards.
I expect Burrow to be aggressive and to take shots often in a game with better weather than Week 1. This contest is in Cincy and over Burrow’s last 11 home games, he has gone Over 265.5 Passing Yards in nine out of 11 games (81.8%).
You better believe Burrow will have a bounce-back performance on his mind at home after missing the entire preseason and showing rust in Week 1. I am going Over 265.5 Passing Yards at -110 odds for Burrow against Baltimore.
Pick: Joe Burrow Over 263.5 Passing Yards (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Jaguars Team Total O/U 23.5 Points vs. Chiefs
This will be the third time that the Jaguars have played the Chiefs in the last 13 overall games, so these teams are getting really familiar with one another.
The Chiefs won both games, with both coming in Kansas City. This time the matchup is in Jacksonville and the door is open for the Jaguars to end their seven-game losing streak against the Chiefs. However, Kansas City is in a bounce-back spot coming off a loss, which is not an ideal fade for the Chiefs.
In the two meetings with Kansas City, Jacksonville has scored 17 and 20 points. Jacksonville has the ability to run with Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, plus air it out to targets like Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram.
With this being the third meeting in the last 13 games for the Jags, I expect the offense to click better, plus they are at home. Lastly, this is the type of game in which teams have to opt for touchdowns and fourth-down attempts rather than field goals or punts, so expect points.
Give me Jacksonville to go Over their Team Total of 23.5 points at -110 odds. I like a sprinkle on the Jaguars’ ML at +130, but it’s more of a lean.
Pick: Jaguars Team Total Over 23.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Derrick Henry O/U 18.5 Rushing Attempts vs. Chargers
In 2022, the Chargers allowed the second-highest yards per carry (6.0) and the fifth-most rushing yards per game (145.8).
In Week 1 of this season against the Dolphins, Miami ran for 70 yards on 20 carries and a touchdown on Los Angeles, but let’s be honest, the Dolphins have one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL.
The same cannot be said for the Titans. Henry finished with 1,538 rushing yards on 349 carries (4.4) at 28 years old. In Week 2, Henry still has enough left in the tank for a 20-plus carry game, especially after 63 yards on 15 carries (4.2 ypc) versus the Saints’ tough rush defense.
The last two times Henry faced the Chargers, he ran for 90 and 104 yards with a touchdown in each game on 21 and 22 carries. I can see similar touches at home where King Henry is 8-2 to the Over 18.5 rushing attempts.
I played Henry Over 18.5 rushing attempts at -115 odds and would go up to 19.5 for -115.
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Dak Prescott O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs. Jets
Dak Prescott will make his home debut versus the Jets’ defense, which will cause plenty of problems, ask Josh Allen (one TD, three INTs).
Prescott has thrown a pick in five straight home games and six of the past seven. The Cowboys QB tied the Texans’ Davis Mills with a league-worst 15 interceptions thrown last season and had more interceptions at home (8) than on the road (7).
The Jets’ defense is a top-five unit and they proved themselves to be just that in a Week 1 win over the Bills. Allen posted 272 total yards on 29 completions and six carries but was a turnover-machine.
Prescott tossed 24 passes in Week 1 and completed 13 for 143 yards and no touchdowns or picks. Prescott will air it out more often against the Jets D. For +105 odds, Prescott throwing at least one pick versus the Jets is a value play to -110 odds.
Pick: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Interceptions (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
49ers (-7.5) at Rams: O/U 45.0
Matthew Stafford had one of the most impressive individual performances of Week 1 going for 338 passing yards against the Seahawks and stealing a road win (30-14) without a touchdown pass or interception thrown. All of that without Cooper Kupp.
For the 49ers, the defense had the best overall unit performance of Week 1 holding the Steelers to 7 points and 239 total yards, which mostly came in the second half.
Looking at this matchup historically, the 49ers own the Rams and I expect that to continue. Los Angeles scored 9 and 14 points in the two meetings with San Francisco.
The 49ers held eight of the past 10 regular season opponents to 17 or fewer points (80%). The Rams were held to 17 or fewer points in 11 out of 17 games last year (64.7%).
The constant pressure on Stafford will be too much, so I am fading the Rams’ offense at home. This is my best bet for the week. Give me the Rams Team Total under 18.5 points at -110 odds. I’d play this to -140 and down to 17.5.
Pick: Rams Team Total Under 18.5 (1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
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