Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how to bet the lowest total on the board between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints.
Buccaneers at Saints (-3): O/U 40.0
The Bucs and Saints meet for an expected dogfight as we have a lowly total of 40.0, in fact, the lowest total of Week 4.
The Saints can become the first team since the 1994-95 Cleveland Browns to start the season by permitting their opponent to allow 20 or fewer points in 12 straight games. New Orleans has allowed 15, 17, and 18 points so far this season (16.6 ppg) and only scored 16, 20 and 17 themselves (17.6 ppg).
New Orleans’ defense is permitting a ridiculous 54% completion percentage (2nd-best) through three games and both Tampa Bay and New Orleans rank top five in interceptions with nine combined (TB 5, NO 4).
This series has been low-scoring dating back to three seasons or the past six matchups with the total going Under in five of six. The winner of the past three meetings has scored 20 or fewer points between the Bucs and Saints.
This is the lowest total on the board for a reason and I think both teams struggle to reach 20 points. I grabbed the Under 40.0 at -110 odds and would go down to 38.0.
The Saints’ Derek Carr also is playing through a shoulder injury, which doesn’t help the Saints offense against a stout Bucs’ defense.
Pick: Under 40.0 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Cardinals at 49ers (-14): O/U 44.0
The Cardinals are looking for two-straight upset wins as double-digit underdogs, while the 49ers are looking for a 4-0 start, which one is more likely?
Since the Cardinals are coming off a shocking upset home win versus the Cowboys and are now the road team, I like the fade on the Cardinals (duh). As a Steelers fan, I respect Josh Dobbs, but facing the NFL’s toughest defense on the road will be a challenge he isn’t prepared for.
Historically, the loser of the last five meetings has scored 13 or fewer points four times and the winner has scored 30-plus three straight. The 49ers team total is 28.5 and the Cardinals is 14.5, right on the numbers I expected.
The 49ers’ defense has five interceptions (T-2nd), allows 4.6 yards per completion (T-2nd), and gave up a total of 159 rushing yards (3rd) through three games. San Francisco allowed 7, 23, and 12 points in that span for 14.0 points per game and four total touchdowns permitted.
I played the Cardinals team total Under 14.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 13.5 for +100 or better. I grabbed the 49ers -14 at -110 odds as well.
Pick: Cardinals Team Total Under 14.5 (-110), 49ers -14 (-110)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 14-11-1 (56%) +3.63 units
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
