After a 5-1 Thursday Night Football slate, let’s start off with some winners on Sunday! Here are my best bets for the week with more to come on X and Instagram for Sunday Night Football!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Bills (-7) at Panthers: O/U 47.5
Buffalo is coming off the bye week and I expect a crisp offensive effort early in this outing. While Carolina ranks third in the NFL for defensive success rate, the four teams they beat are a combined 7-19-1.
When the Panthers did lose, the Jaguars and Cardinals scored 20 first half points, while the Patriots put up 28 on Carolina. When the Panthers lose this year, it’s because the defense is getting torched early. Despite beating the Dolphins, Cowboys, and Jets in the past three games, the Panthers allowed 17, 17, and 3 first-half points, so I like the Bills first half team total Over 13.5 at -122 odds. Buffalo averages 7.5 first quarter points per game (2nd), so I expect a quick start.
Tua Tagovailoa, Drake Maye, and Dak Prescott all had clean sheets versus Carolina, while Trevor Lawrence, Kyle Murray, Michael Penix, and Tyrod Taylor all threw interceptions. I know which group I am putting Josh Allen with. I will take Allen’s Under 0.5 interceptions (-146) after throwing four picks in the past three games and losing two straight entering the bye.
Pick: Bills 1H Team Total Over 13.5 (1 unit), Josh Allen Under 0.5 Interceptions (Risk 2 unit)
Bears at Ravens (-3): O/U 45.5
The Baltimore Ravens are lining up for a run to make a playoff push and win the AFC North. Oddsmakers say it can happen and I believe it will.
This is an ideal set up and I don’t think anyone wants to face Baltimore this week. I have loved Chicago over the past month and bet on the Bears in four out of six games so far this season, but it’s time to fade them. Chicago is riding a high of four consecutive wins with the past three coming against subpar quarterbacks (Jayden Daniels is excluded) or teams (Raiders, Commanders, Saints).
The Ravens get cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, linebacker Roquan Smith, safety Kyle Hamilton, OT Ronnie Stanley, FB Patrick Ricard back from injury, but not QB Lamar Jackson. Being at home off four consecutive losses, following a bye week, and getting back a bunch of starters is a bet on spot. Give me Baltimore’s first quarter ML (-110).
Pick: Ravens 1Q ML (1 unit)
Giants at Eagles (-7.5): O/U 43.5
Jaxson Dart and the Giants are coming off an epic loss in Denver and travel across the country to take on an Eagles team they beat at home on Thursday Night Football just two weeks ago. In the 34-17 win over Philly, New York got out to a 13-10 lead in the first quarter and scored in all four quarters.
Philadelphia blitzed Dart 45.5% of the time, which is the Eagles’ highest blitz rate in a game so far and the secondary gets good news with Quinyon Mitchell returning, so they can run more zone blitz schemes rather than man the second time around, which burned them.
I lost on both of these picks on their Thursday night matchup, so I am running it back here and backing the Eagles to get out to a better start at home this time around. I like Philly in the first quarter -1.5 (-106) to lead and shutout the Giants and keep them Under the 2.5 team total (+114).
Pick: Eagles 1Q -1.5 (1 unit), Giants 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (1 unit)
Dillon Gabriel O/U 20.5 Completions vs Patriots
I faded Dillon Gabriel last week in a rainstorm, but we’re backing him here. The Patriots rank 30th in completion rate and 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt, so Gabriel likely can move the ball a little through the air after finishing with 116 yards on 13-of-18 versus Miami.
The former Oregon quarterback is dink-and-dunk quarterback and will take the short yardage you give him, so I like his Over 20.5 completions (-130) after being on the Under 29.5 pass attempts last week.
Pick: Over 20.5 Completions (1 unit)
Rhamondre Stevenson O/U 63.5 Rush + Rec Yards vs Browns
After a monster 18 carries, 88 rushing yards, and a touchdown against the Titans, it’s time to fade Rhamondre Stevenson as he takes on the Browns. His rushing prop is 47.5 and receiving yards prop is 10.5, so the books are making you pay extra yardage at a 63.5 rushing and receiving, which makes no sense.
Stevenson has five games of 38 or fewer rushing yards and hasn’t gone back-to-back weeks over his rushing total since December of last year. Stevenson also has 13 or less receiving yards in five of seven games with two or fewer targets in four consecutive weeks. Cleveland is an elite defense and honestly, TreyVeon Henderson might be chomping at the bit since his former Ohio State teammate Quinhson Judkins is starting for Cleveland. I like Stevenson to go Under his 63.5 rushing and receiving total (-115).
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 63.5 Rush + Rec Yards (1 unit)
Tua Tagovailoa O/U 193.5 Passing Yards vs Falcons
Atlanta has held all six quarterbacks they faced to 180 or fewer passing yards, but we all know that can’t continue forever. While you may roll your eyes and say, but Tua Tagovailoa? Well, in my opinion, that’s how betting works — it’s never the ones you see coming.
It’s time to turn the tide and if Tua doesn’t have an outing of Mike McDaniels liking, this could be his final start of the season and with Miami. Both parties I am sure are aware of that and I think Tua does turn in at least 200 yards in a dome as a road underdog. Last week, the weather was horrid for any quarterback (100 passing yards), but Tua did reach 200 yards back-to-back weeks prior.
I found it interesting that in the last 10 games that Tua has not thrown an interception, he has tossed at least 200 yards in nine of those games. His head coach challenged him this week after six interceptions in the past two games and I think Tua responds.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa Over 193.5 Passing Yards (1u)
Season Record: 53-38 (58%) +9.9 units | 8.85 ROI%
Week 7 Record: 13-8 +2.97 units
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