Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
Tomorrow night the Stanley Cup Final begins in Denver when the Colorado Avalanche face-off against the 2-time defending Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning. Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon lead the favored Avs (-180) into the Final against Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, and the Lightning (+150).
PointsBet has two Avs as the favorites to claim the Conn Smythe Trophy. Cale Makar has the shortest odds (+180) followed by Nathan MacKinnon (+225) with Tampa’s Andrei Vasilevskiy (+350) in third.
NBC Sports EDGE NHL Analysts Matt Bernier and Josh Wagner off a quick overview of the Final. Yes, they will have breakdowns nightly for each specific game. This article is simply a taste of what they expect to see from Tampa Bay and Colorado.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche
Matt Bernier (@bernier_matt) Tampa Bay Lightning in Six Games
Statistically there are numbers that would suggest these two teams are very evenly matched. When a deeper dive is done, however, the clear edge (in my opinion) goes to the Lightning in this series. One statistical category that is worth monitoring is the power play, specifically in relation to Colorado. The Avalanche have seen a dramatic uptick in their power play success, converting at 31.1% this postseason. This is a seven-point increase over their regular season power play rate of 24%, leading one to wonder if a regression is due against the Lightning’s solid penalty kill (82.5% during the playoffs, 80.6% during the regular season).
Another element that must be factored into one’s handicapping of this series is the path each team took to get to this year’s Cup Final. Colorado was fortunate to take on a backup netminder in their first round series against Nashville, a backup netminder for the majority of their second round series with St. Louis, and a 40-year-old goalie who came back down to earth in the Western Conference Final against Edmonton. Tampa, on the other hand, had to run through two of the best teams in all of hockey in Toronto and Florida before prevailing over the Rangers and the juggernaut that is Igor Shesterkin in the Eastern Conference Final. The Lightning’s path to this year’s Stanley Cup Final has been decidedly more difficult than Colorado’s, causing me to believe they are the more battle-hardened of the two sides.
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly for $9.99. Click here to learn more!
Colorado has an immense amount of talent on their roster, as does Tampa. Cale Makar may be the best player in the series, but the Lightning have the playoff-proven horses in Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov that have excelled at the highest level in the past compared to the relative inexperience the Avalanche bring to the table (at this stage, at least). The goaltending matchup is a no-contest, as Andrei Vasilevskiy towers over either Darcy Kuemper or Pavel Francouz for Colorado. Kuemper has been cleared to play, but Avalanche Head Coach Jared Bednar was non-committal over the weekend when it came to which goalie would get the nod in Game 1 of the Final.
In the end, I look at it like this: either team can win a track meet, but I believe just one side can win a low scoring battle – and that is Tampa Bay. I think the Lightning become the first team to win three consecutive Stanley Cups since the New York Islanders in the early 1980s.
Josh Wagner (@jwaggs10): Colorado Avalanche in Six Games
This was the matchup the hockey world wanted to see! I don’t know many that rooted for Tampa Bay to go back to Stanley Cup Finals but there is no denying they were the best team in the East these playoffs. This is what it is all about, the actual best teams from each conference squaring off for eternal glory and I would not have it any other way!
Even though they are back-to-back defending Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning will start the series as underdogs. On the surface, this is bizarre. I cannot remember the Patriots ever being underdogs in the Super Bowl or a team led by LeBron James either so having a team that’s dominated hockey since the pandemic started is weird. I do not think the sportsbooks are wrong in terms of the odds, though as the Lightning do have some warts and some significant injuries. The Lightning will not win if Brayden Point is out for more than a few games. He is too important. They knocked off New York without him, but the Avalanche are an exponentially better group than the Rangers. The Lightning do have a shot if he returns and make no mistake their goaltender makes them the team to beat even if they are underdogs. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been fantastic these playoffs going 12-5 with a 2.27 GAA and .928 SV%. On those stats and his track record the Lightning will stay close in every game, I just do not know how to pick against the Avalanche.
Let us talk more about those Avalanche, who were undoubtedly the best team in the regular season. They can beat you in several ways, by racking up the goals, playing shutdown defense or just plain out smothering teams with their speed. I have not seen a more complete team all season. Colorado is the real deal. One issue for them, however, is the injury to Nazem Kadri, who is an integral piece of their puzzle. He provides depth down the middle and scoring that the Avs will need to beat the defending champs. If Kadri does not play the scales are close to even in my opinion even with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and company. I also do not fully trust Darcy Kuemper in net, but he has gotten the job done to this point with help from Pavel Francouz.
This series will be an instant classic but at the end of the day, give me the best team with home ice advantage to dethrone the champs in six games as the Lightning hold court while at home but cannot get the job done in the Rockies.
Enjoy the Cup Final. Enjoy the Sweat.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. CO, IL, IN, IA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, WV, and VA. only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
