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Postseason Records to Date:
Record: 15-12
Units +2.32
Chris Kreider, New York Rangers Player Prop, 8:00 PM ET (Game 5)
When it’s difficult to pick a winner for a pivotal Game 5, it’s time to look at player props. I believe the Lightning are the better team, but the Rangers are an amazing 8-1 at home these playoffs, so for tonight I am going to pass on sides and Totals and hit the prop market!
No one has left their fingerprints on the Rangers’ season and playoff run more than Chris Kreider. He shocked the hockey world with 52 goals in the regular season and through 18 postseason games he has collected 10 goals and 16 points. He is also 12th overall in total shots on goal these playoffs just behind Steven Stamkos with 47. That means Kreider is averaging 2.6 shots per game, and his prop line tonight is set at 2.5. The sportsbooks know how to set a line, but the question is why is the prop priced at +100 even-money? The Rangers star has topped this line in 10/18 postseason games which gives him a hit rate of 56%, which should make the odds hold negative juice, but over on DraftKings Sportsbook they are throwing the public a bone. This rate holds steady if you just look at his home game stats this postseason as well. Kreider has gone Over 2.5 shots in 5 of 9 home games for a hit rate of 56%. The Rangers’ winger has also seen a big uptick in minutes this series as he has topped 19 minutes in the last three games. By comparison, he only topped that mark once the entire Carolina series.
The Rangers as a team have averaged 31.75 shots on goals this series, so assuming they maintain similar production tonight, it’s a good bet that Kreider is involved in a measly 10% of that output. Take Kreider at even-money odds of +100 to continue chipping away this postseason.
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The Pick:
Chris Kreider Over 2.5 SOG (+100 on DraftKings)
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