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The slate of Premier League matches set to take place on Saturday features intriguing options that are sure to appeal to the betting public.
An all-around disappointing betting weekend in Matchweek 4 (1-3 overall, -1.4 units) brings the early season totals down a bit while still landing squarely in the black (4-3 overall, +3.82 units).
A subpar weekend of results illustrates just how vital it is to identify and take advantage of overlays, as successful wagers at overlaid prices can both bolster a bankroll as well as mitigate losses over the long run.
Below you will find two wagers from Saturday’s Premier League contests that are currently offered at overlaid prices at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability. For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100. If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
WOLVES v. BRENTFORD – TOTAL GOALS – UNDER 1.5 (currently +155 at PointsBet)
Both Wolverhampton Wanderers and Brentford have highlighted their defensive prowess over the course of the first four matches of the ’21-’22 campaign, allowing five goals combined in eight games. The start has been exceptionally satisfying for Brentford, who are amid their first season in England’s top-flight in 74 years.
As impressive as each side has been defensively, they have been equally as unremarkable when it comes to scoring goals themselves. Wolves have scored just two goals to date, while Brentford has only registered three goals. The combination of robust defending and anemic goalscoring could result in this contest featuring few quality opportunities.
PointsBet currently has under 1.5 goals listed at odds of +155 (implied probability of 39.2%). While the percentage may sound a bit overzealous, my model predicts that a 0-0 draw, a 1-0 Wolves win, or a 1-0 Brentford win will occur 78.04% of the time. That percentage equates to odds of -355, highlighting an enormous overlay.
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MANCHESTER CITY v. SOUTHAMPTON – TO WIN TO NIL – MANCHESTER CITY (currently -121 at PointsBet)
Following a 1-0 defeat on the road at Tottenham to begin the season, Manchester City have gone on a tear, outscoring their opponents 10-0 over the course of their three-game win streak in the Premier League. Pep Guardiola’s side have dominated possession in all four league contests to start the year, and there is no reason to think things will not continue that way at Etihad Stadium on Saturday.
While Manchester City have enjoyed a strong start to their EPL campaign, Southampton have had their share of difficulties to this point. Winless in the Premier League so far, the away side have earned points in three of their four matches so far, however it must be said that none of the draws have come in convincing fashion (if a draw can be categorized as “convincing”). Their form on the road this season leaves something to be desired, as they have conceded five goals in their two road contests.
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Given the form City has shown and the defensive shortcomings Southampton have displayed when playing on the road, there is every reason to believe Manchester City will emerge with all three points Saturday. From a wagering standpoint, the match result odds of -667 for City are far too short to recommend. Conversely, the -121 odds (implied probability of 54.75%) available at PointsBet on Manchester City winning without surrendering a goal offers tremendous value, as my model suggests this result will happen 75.24% of the time (odds of -304).
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