Editor’s Note: Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news and updates. Plus, it allows you to easily track your favorite players. Get it here!
All eyes will be on Old Trafford on Sunday, as Manchester United get set to host Liverpool in a battle of top-six clubs in the English Premier League.
Manchester United’s midfield play continues to be suspect, and Liverpool heads to Manchester hoping to maintain their unbeaten Premier League record.
While it may be the game that draws the most attention, it is not one I am particularly interested in from a betting perspective.
Below you will find an overlay to consider at PointsBet from a match that I am interested in – Brentford v. Leicester City.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
[[ad:athena]]
BRENTFORD v. LEICESTER CITY – MATCH RESULT – BRENTFORD WIN (currently +160 at PointsBet)
A case can be made that the most impressive team in the EPL this season outside the usual suspects has been Brentford, a club that is getting a taste of topflight English football for the first time in three-quarters of a century.
While every result has not gone Brentford’s way, they have given teams like Liverpool and Chelsea all they can handle, indicating just how well the Bees have played this season.
Sunday they will host a Leicester City side that is riding high following a 4-2 victory at Old Trafford against Manchester United last weekend.
Led by Jamie Vardy’s seven Premier League goals, the Foxes have displayed an ability to keep pace with the larger clubs when it comes to scoring, however their success boils down to how many goals will they concede on any given day.
Leicester City rank in the bottom-quarter of teams in the Premier League when it comes to goals allowed (14), illustrating the struggles they have had defensively.
Although Brentford is not a club that features a high-flying offense, forwards Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo present legitimate threats to score at any moment.
Coupled with the home side’s stifling defense, one is led to believe Brentford are the more likely winners of Sunday’s match.
Based on my projections, Brentford defeats Leicester at home 46.1% of the time (odds of +117).
This projection indicates a solid overlay when considering Brentford’s win odds are currently +160 (implied probability of 38.5%).
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code WELCOME10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
