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The final day of the Premier League season is upon us, and as tradition dictates, all 10 matches will be played simultaneously on Sunday.
That provides the perfect opportunity to unleash some of that additional bankroll you’ve (hopefully) accumulated since the beginning of September.
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But let’s be honest for a second - not all Matchday 38 fixtures are created equal. Thus, there are some that simply don’t deserve your betting attention.
So without further ado, here are my best bets for the final day of the season. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook.
Bet One - Arsenal Moneyline (-167) vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
Even though the previous meeting in December was the first time the Gunners claimed all three points against the Seagulls in the last five meetings, there’s good historical precedent with Arsenal Sunday.
Not only have Arsenal won four straight heading into this fixture, but they also haven’t lost on the final day of the season since 2004-05.
That includes a nine-match winning streak on Matchday 38.
Plus, Arsenal are one of the remaining sides that have a motivation to win on the final day. A win -- and draws/losses by both Everton and Tottenham -- will see Mikel Arteta’s squad qualify for next season’s Europa Conference League.
Even though Arsenal have been a far superior away team this season, expect the return of 10,000 fans to the Emirates to boost the Gunners against an injury-riddled Brighton side.
Bet Two - West Ham Moneyline (-143) vs. Southampton
The Hammers only need a single point to guarantee a Europa League spot for next season, but I like them to grab all three against the Saints.
Although West Ham have lost two straight home fixtures, they’re 6-2-1 against the bottom half at home this year (their sole loss came back in September).
Southampton, on the other hand, have lost nine of their last 10 road fixtures and have yet to claim all three points against a top-half side on the road this season.
Finally, West Ham are unbeaten in the last five meetings (4W-1D) and 10-0-3 in their last 13 home meetings vs. Southampton.
If you prefer to get a bet in-play here that protects against a draw, I like a three-team parlay of West Ham Draw, No Bet/Liverpool Moneyline/Leeds United Moneyline (+109). This would go down to two teams if West Ham draw, but you’re still getting -158 with the latter two legs.
Bet Three - Leeds United Goal-Line (-1) vs. West Bromwich Albion (-160)
Speaking of Leeds - a win for Marcelo Bielsa’s side against West Brom would see them go 6-0-0 against the three teams that have been relegated this season.
Even though Sam Allardyce is unbeaten in his managerial career at Elland Road, Leeds are 6-0-3 against teams in the bottom half at home this year.
West Brom, meanwhile, have only won twice away from The Hawthorns this season -- once while up a man at Chelsea -- and bring the second-worst EPL away record into this fixture.
Leeds also finally have a full complement of attacking options available for selection. Seeing as only three points would help the Baggies move up a spot in the final table, a treacherous Leeds counter-attack should prove too much for a team that will be “going for it.”
Lastly, you’re getting some solid push-protection with this bet as Leeds don’t need to win by multiple goals to cash. Rather, should it finish 1-0 or 2-1 in favor of the hosts, there’s no risk of losing on a hook.
Bet Four (Parlay) - Man City/Everton Under 3.5 Goals & Liverpool Moneyline (-144)
I’ll start with the latter leg because it’s easier to justify -- if Liverpool are to qualify for Champions League, they’re in a virtual must-win situation.
The Reds have won five straight against Palace and are unbeaten in their last nine games (7W-2D) dating back to mid-March, so don’t expect to sweat that leg.
As for City-Everton, I’m ultimately relying on Everton’s stellar road form to continue at the Etihad. The Toffees have played seven straight matches to under 2.5 goals and have only seen two road matches finish over 3.5 goals.
In road matches against Big Six opposition, Carlo Ancelotti’s side have played four of five to under 2.5 goals.
Finally, seeing as Everton are the side with something to play for -- they’ll hop into seventh if they top Tottenham’s result and Arsenal fails to win against Brighton -- and with City more focused on the Champions League final, I expect a low-scoring contest.
The only reason I’m electing for under 3.5 goals is to protect against this match finishing on three goals, the second-most popular total number in the EPL this season.
Bet Five (Parlay) - Chelsea Moneyline & Wolves-Man United Under 3.5 Goals (+100)
Much like the last parlay, there’s some similar thinking in this one. However, I’ll qualify this as lean-only until lineups are revealed.
A win for Chelsea at Villa Park guarantees their spot in the Champions League next season. They’re not out if they draw or lose, but I’m guessing they won’t want to rely on losses/draws from Liverpool & Leicester or making the Champions League Final a must-win.
Even though Villa have shown positive signs since Jack Grealish came back into the Starting XI, the fact is that Chelsea have won three straight on the road and are unbeaten in their last eight on the road (6W-2D).
The question mark on this parlay, for me, comes down to the Wolves-United total.
What I think you’ll see is United resting some key players with the Europa League Final coming on Wednesday, but if you don’t, I would stay away altogether.
However, a combination of young-guns from United with a Wolves lineup sans Daniel Podence, Owen Otasowie, Pedro Neto, Johnny & Raúl Jiménez could produce a very cagey affair.
Finally, in the eight meetings between these sides since Wolves’ promotion in 2018, only 12 goals have been scored. And not once in the last five meetings have these sides combined for more than three goals.
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