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We find ourselves in the part of the season where some matches matter and others do not. Tracking motivation is difficult for those matches that don’t matter, luckily for us, we have one that has major implications. Arsenal sit four points clear of Tottenham for the fourth and final Champions League qualification spot. To say this match matters is quite an understatement. For this bet, I will be using PointsBet Sportsbook for my odds.
Tottenham vs Arsenal (Thursday, 2:45 pm ET)
Arsenal +0.5 (-145) 0.5un
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This is quite possibly the biggest North London derby in quite some time. If Arsenal are able to come away with any points here, they all but solidify their Champions League qualification. Backing Arsenal on the road in any capacity is daunting. For much of the season Arsenal had been losing the xG battle on the road often. However, if you dig a bit deeper you notice this trend started to shift around mid-January. Since mid-January, they have actually won the road xG battle 6-1. In those matches they are 5-2. A few of those matches were against bottom half teams, so that that with a grain of salt.
I expect Arsenal to back it in and limit the amount of chances Tottenham. The Hotspurs have the home field advantage, but this is a derby. The fans on both sides will be up for this match. When looking at Tottenham tactically, you notice most of their success comes from the counter. That’s why the struggle against teams like Brighton and Brentford. Both teams want to stay compact against the better side. That’s exactly what Arsenal will try to do.
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