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The final match of the Women’s Olympic Basketball tournament in Tokyo features USA and Japan facing off for the gold medal at 10:30 pm ET tonight. The hosts are +975 underdogs on the Money Line at PointsBet Sportsbook and 17.5-point underdogs on the spread against the United States. The Total for this Group B rematch is 160.5, and I see value in betting that number, plus some props, for the Women’s Olympic Basketball gold medal clash between the U.S. and Japan.
USA:
Team USA goes for a seventh consecutive gold medal in Women’s Olympic Basketball and rides a 54-game winning streak into this matchup. The top team in the FIBA Women’s World Rankings runs a high-powered offense that led the tournament in points, field goal percentage and assists. The United States won all of their games in Tokyo and covered in two consecutive matches following an 0-3 start against the spread. Team USA defeated Serbia by 20 in a semifinal match to advance to the finals. The team’s strong interior defense and rebounding proved to be useful in the quarterfinals, as the U.S. outrebounded Serbia and recorded 36 points in the paint. Turnovers continued to be an issue for the United States, with the second-most turnover prone team in Tokyo allowing Serbia to score 19 points off of 17 U.S. giveaways. This could be problematic against Japan as the U.S. allowed the hosts to score 19 points off turnovers in their first matchup, an 86-69 win for the United States.
Star forward Breanna Stewart is averaging 15.2 points and 9.2 rebounds to go along with great defense and passing. Against Serbia, Stewart put up a double-double and grabbed five boards in the first quarter alone as Team USA got off to an early lead. Center Brittney Griner also had a double-double against Serbia with a team-high 15 points and 12 rebounds in the semifinals. Griner, tied for the tallest player in Tokyo, has eight inches on Japan’s tallest player, so she could be in for another big game tonight after scoring 15 points in her last game against Japan. Four-time Olympic gold medalist Sue Bird had eight points and four assists against Serbia and is leading the team in assists through the semifinals with 6.4 per game.
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Japan:
Japan earned a spot in the gold medal game thanks to hot shooting from beyond the arc. The No. 10 ranked team in the FIBA Women’s World Rankings led the Olympics in three-point percentage and three-point attempts. Six players on the Japanese roster shoot at least 40% from beyond the arc. Defensively, the hosts may struggle to contain the U.S. frontcourt after allowing their first four opponents to make 69% of their shots at the rim. Japan allowed the United States to grab 42 rebounds and score 40 points in their last matchup. The hosts entered their semifinal matchup as the worst offensive rebounding team in the tournament, but they managed to outrebound France by three in an 87-71 win. Japan shot 50% from deep and every active player scored in the victory.
Japan’s offense is a fast-paced, drive-and-kick system in which point guard Rui Machida uses dribble penetration to find open shooters on the perimeter. Machida set a new Olympic record for assists in a single game with 18 against France in the semifinals. The guard averaged 13.8 assists per game and has twice as many total dimes as Bird, the second-leading distributor in Tokyo. Center Maki Takada, Japan’s captain, leads the hosts in scoring and minutes per game. Takada scored a team-high 15 points in Japan’s last game against the U.S. and also led the squad in points and rebounds against France. Japan’s two other double-digit scorers are Saki Hayashi and Yuki Miyazawa. Hayashi made more total three-pointers than any other shooter in Tokyo, while Miyazawa led the field in three-point attempts per game.
Prediction:
Japan and the U.S. are the top-two scoring teams in the tournament, and my best bet for this Women’s Olympic Basketball gold medal game is on the Over. Team USA held opponents to only 25% on three-pointers, which could make life difficult for a Japan squad that relied heavily on threes to make it to the gold medal game. The hosts took 49% of their shots from beyond the arc and are the only team shooting above 40% from deep. Japan made only 10 of their 36 three-point attempts in their Group B matchup with Team USA, so positive shooting regression could make this a high-scoring affair. I also like Brittney Griner to exceed her points prop of 14.5 points, and sharpshooter Yuki Miyazawa to hit enough threes to surpass 12.5 points. Stewart grabbed 13 rebounds in the last matchup with Japan and she should get at least nine in this game.
EDGE:
Brittney Griner Over 14.5 points -113 (FanDuel)
Yuki Miyazawa Over 12.5 points -113 (FanDuel)
Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 rebounds -130 (FanDuel)
Total: Over 159 -120 (DraftKings)
