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This week’s ATP schedule features two indoor hardcourt tournaments in Sweden and Italy: the Stockholm Open and the Next Gen ATP Finals. Both have reached their respective semifinal rounds. Here is where you can find betting value:
Tommy Paul (+122) vs Frances Tiafoe (-157)
A crucial stat for predicting any tennis match is winners/unforced errors. When you isolate a player’s ability regardless of opponent, who has enough control to place the ball exactly where they want? Over the past year on hard courts, Frances Tiafoe ranks 12th on tour with a winners/unforced errors ratio of 1.462. Tommy Paul comes in 36th at 1.138. The disparity makes sense given Tiafoe’s ceiling: he nearly won in Vienna (upsetting Jannik Sinner in the process) and made the round of 16 at the U.S. Open. Tiafoe is undefeated against Paul in three matches and that trend should continue.
EDGE: Tiafoe (-157)
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Sebastian Korda (-176) vs Brandon Nakashima (+136)
Two Americans are facing off for the first time in this semifinal … for the right to play, in all likelihood, Carlos Alcaraz. Because Alcaraz is playing on another level, it’s difficult to diagnose recent form for Brandon Nakashima, as he was in Alcaraz’s group for the round robin stage.
Still, perhaps the biggest weakness in Korda’s game is his serve. Over the past year on this surface, Korda has an ace rate of 7.38% and a first serve effectiveness mark (first serve points won rate divided by second serve points won rate) of 1.394. Both of these marks barely crack the top 100 on tour. Nakashima may not have a stellar first serve either, but he does earn those easy points more often with a 1.402 first serve effectiveness mark and an ace rate of 9.98% (46th on tour). There’s value in the underdog.
EDGE: Nakashima (+136)
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