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The Paris Masters are here, which means it’s time to make some money before the tennis season comes to a close. Tuesday features a loaded card which will take up almost the entire day, and I see several opportunities to profit. I’ll get to a couple of them now.
Filip Krajinovic (+100) vs. Reilly Opelka (-122)
While it’s tough to stomach a bet on Opelka here given his five losses in six tries entering the tournament, you have to love him on these surfaces in Paris. These are very quick and will favor big servers this week, and Opelka is certainly one of those.
The bigman has also lost to a murderer’s row in his last six matches. Jannik Sinner could be a top-five player in the world right now, Jenson Brooksby and Grigor Dimitrov have had incredible closes to the year, Casper Ruud was one of the biggest risers this season and Lloyd Harris was as well. Prior to that point, the tall American had been on a roll.
He can get back rolling against Krajinovic, who may be an even worse player at the moment. He’s lost three straight matches and admittedly is a better player on the slower surfaces. I don’t think he has it in him to produce the breaks necessary to get to Opelka.
Edge: Opelka -122
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Lloyd Harris (-157) vs. Alex De Minaur (+127)
Speaking of Harris, I’m not his biggest fan in this matchup. I actually think De Minaur is incredibly underpriced in this spot and enters playing some pretty good tennis.
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The Aussie has been playing some pretty good tennis dating back to his loss to Taylor Fritz at the U.S. Open, and his breakthrough was inevitable. He was once a top-15 player and is still just 22, possessing insane speed and return skills that can take down even the best in the sport. He took a set off of Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alex Zverev just last week and was close to winning those matches.
De Minaur isn’t at home on the slow surfaces, where he played the last couple of weeks, and should actually get an advantage here pushing the ball back to the baseline. He’s done very well here in Paris with two straight trips to the Round of 16 in the last two years, and I love his prospects in this match.
Harris is very one-dimensional and should wilt under the constant pressure of De Minaur. I don’t think he has the rally tolerance to win this match.
Edge: De Minaur +127
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