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We’ve got two more tournaments on the ATP Tour to bet on this week, and I’ve got some ideas as to how we can make some money on Friday morning. Let’s get into it.
Alex De Minaur (-115) vs. Denis Shapovalov (-105)
The last time Shapovalov traveled to Stockholm for this tournament, last year, he went to the final. Prior to that, he won the tournament in 2019. He obviously loves the conditions here, and for many reasons I’m a fan of backing him against Alex De Minaur.
Shapovalov had a nightmare season, but has done well to recover with a strong finish. He’s found some form with six wins in eight matches since the US Open, going to the final in Seoul and the semis in Tokyo. He’s locked in, brimming with confidence and hitting his spots with his overwhelming power.
Backing Shapovalov when his confidence is sky high is always a good play, but it’s particularly exciting considering how poorly De MInaur is playing. He’s come through some rather easy competition, but had a tough loss to Soonwoo Kwon in Tokoyo and struggled at the US Open a bit back in August. I am not seeing it here with the Aussie.
Edge: Shapovalov -105
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Frances Tiafoe (-150) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori (+115)
The oddsmakers here surely didn’t watch Tiafoe’s match on Thursday. He looked to be disengaged from the start, playing a lazy match and struggling physically as it went on. Eventually Elias Ymer, who is a far inferior player, started to make some errors and donated some breaks to Tiafoe. Seeing the match right there in front of him, he took it.
Ruusuvuori is an incredibly solid baseliner who is not going to be quite as relenting as Ymer. He’s playing some pretty inspired tennis at the moment and is going to really make Tiafoe work on the court with some long exchanges. Tiafoe should just about be out of gas in this one given his brutal last month and half, which saw him go to the semifinals of the US Open, grind out some long Laver Cup matches and go to the Tokyo final.
Tiafoe can leave Stockholm and feel great about what he’s accomplished this season, and in truth could just pack it up and end his season now if he really wanted to. Ruusuvuori is still grinding away and stands to gain a lot here from a run in Stockholm, trying to improve his ranking.
I think we’ll see another rather flat match from Tiafoe and some discipline and consistency from the Fin.
Edge: Ruusuvuori +115