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We’ve got two more tournaments on the ATP Tour to bet on this week, and I’ve got some ideas as to how we can make some money on Wednesday morning. Let’s get into it.
Jenson Brooksby (+105) vs. Ugo Humbert (-130)
In theory, this bet makes little sense. You have an expert defender in Jenson Brooskby going against a guy who’s made his mark on the tour this season by donating errors to his opponents and doing a whole lot of losing.
Well, the tide has turned for both men. After losing a whole host of ranking points thanks to a disappointing grass season, Humbert returned to the Challenger level this year where he racked up 11 wins in 15 matches prior to the US Open, and after an epic five-set clash with fellow countryman Benjamin Bonzi in Queens he went right back to the Challenger Tour where he took home the crown in Rennes with a win over Dominic Thiem.
Humbert reached the Round of 16 in Sofia (an ATP-level event) and a semifinal at another Challenger last week. After coming through qualifying here in Basel, we can say with confidence he’s in form, and these fast indoor conditions should really suit him considering the power he plays with.
Humbert is now 97-57 indoors across all levels, and I think he has a clear edge here over Brooksby, whose season has fallen apart following the North American hardcourt swing. He’s now lost three matches in a row, two of which came against big-serving, big-hitting lefties. This is another big-serving, big-hitting lefty who he should lose to.
Edge: Humbert -130
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Denis Shapovalov (+110) vs. Taylor Fritz (-140)
This is quietly one of the most fun rivalries going on tour right now. Shapovalov is 4-2 against Fritz in his career, and ever since their epic five-setter at the US Open in 2020 every single match has seemed to deliver something. The series has been clearly dominated by Shapovalov, who even in defeat managed to take a set off of the American and push him to three sets.
Fritz has made the top 10 for the first time in his career and is likely biding his time until the final big tournament of the year which takes place next week in Paris. Shapovalov, meanwhile, has found a mean streak late in the year with a trip to the final in Seoul and a semifinal appearance in Tokyo, where he would lose to Fritz.
These matches mean everything to Shapovalov, who has had a disastrous 2022 campaign, and he appears to be regaining that confidence that he so sorely needs. Fritz has played a lot of tennis over the last month and may appear a bit burned out or disinterested in this one. I’ll take the guy who owns this career head-to-head who has more to play for at plus money any day.
Edge: Shapovalov +110
