The WNBA season kicks off this Friday, May 16 with four extra games added to the schedule (40 to 44) and the anticipation for the best season yet.
Last season, A’ja Wilson won the MVP for the second time in her career (2022, 2024), while Napheesa Collier won her first Defensive Player of the Year award and Caitlin Clark took home Rookie of the Year.
Wilson (+225) is second in odds to repeat as MVP behind Caitlin Clark (+220), while Wilson is the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year (+130) ahead of Collier (+320), then there is a wide gap between the competition. For Rookie of the Year, much like last year, this season could be a runaway with Paige Bueckers as a -370 favorite.
Let’s dive into who to bet on for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, and Rookie of the Year, including some long shots to keep an eye on.
MVP: Caitlyn Clark (+220), A’ja Wilson (+225), Napheesa Collier (+400)
This market in a lot of people’s minds will come down to three players: Caitlin Clark, A’ja Wilson, and Napheesa Collier. All three players have significant cases, like Wilson being the best two-way player in the league and the reigning leading scorer, Collier led her team to the WNBA Finals last season, and Clark is becoming the face of the league and could lead the WNBA in points, assists, and made three-pointers per game (she finished fourth in voting last year).
The biggest factor in why I am making my pick is simple. The public and oddsmakers. BetMGM is reporting over 64% of the money for this award is on Clark, while FanDuel says they have taken 66% and 58% at DraftKings. Some report that they are taking 3-4 times the number of bets on Clark compared to other players — so simply put, any result besides Clark is a win for the sportsbook. I will side with fading Clark because the win total market and WNBA Champion are all dominated by bets on the Fever as well.
Last season, Wilson set the WNBA record for most points in a single WNBA season, and with four added games to the schedule, she will likely do it again. Wilson is second in terms of odds to lead the league in rebounding (+600) behind Angel Reese (-370) and Wilson is the favorite to lead the WNBA in scoring (-135) ahead of Clark (+370), while Collier is +1200 and +4000, respectively to lead the WNBA in either category.
I think Vegas could be laughing to the bank with all of the Clark bets and the player that wins MVP is right in their backyard. I like A’Ja Wilson to win the award and win back-to-back MVPs.
Pick: A’Ja Wilson to win MVP (2 units)
Defensive Player of the Year: A’ja Wilson (+125), Napheesa Collier (+320), Ezi Magbegor (+600)
The Defensive Player of the Year market comes down to two players who hold the best chance of winning: A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier with Ezi Magbegor gaining some late respect with +500 to +600 odds across all books. Wilson is the favorite (+125) and won twice (2022, 2023) with Collier (+320) trailing as last year’s winner. However, +125 and +320 odds are not great value for a 44-game season.
If either Wilson or Collier starts to look like a runaway, then I will grab them during the season, but I have my eyes on three players that are considered long shots.
The first two are teammates: Angel Reese (+1800) and Kamilla Cardoso (+5000). Reese was the NBA’s leading rebounder last year and contributed 1.3 steals per game, which was second on the Sky, while Cardoso recorded 1.4 blocks per game, ranking second in Chicago. Cardoso is a 6-foot-7 center who didn’t play a full season as a rookie out of South Carolina yet she nearly averaged a double-double (9.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG).
Cardoso is the longest shot of the three, but her defense and paint presence can make her All-WNBA one day (averaged at least 2.5 BPG twice in college), while Reese realistically can double her stocks (steals + blocks) in the lineup next to Cardoso.
I may be a little biased in backing Aliyah Boston (+3000) from the Fever to win the award since we worked together on multiple Women’s College Basketball pregame shows on Peacock, but the improvement is there. Boston spent the offseason playing in the unrivaled league against some of the best competition in the WNBA.
While it wasn’t your typical five-on-five basketball setup, it allowed players to work on their 1 on 1 offensive game and how to defend without help. Boston mentioned all of that to me in our off-camera conversations and with her being on the Fever, the national media attention will be on this team, which gives her a boost.
Let’s not forget Boston won Rookie of the Year too, so DPOY and Most Improved are two awards she could be in the running for, as well as Reese and Cardoso. Shop around on all three, because I found +2000 for Reese and +5500 on Cardoso.
Picks: Angel Reese +2000 (0.5 unit), Aliyah Boston +3000 (0.5 unit), Kamilla Cardoso +5500 (0.5 unit)
Rookie of the Year: Paige Bueckers (-370), Dominique Malonga (+550), Sonia Citron (+1400)
This year’s Rookie for the Year race is shaping up to look a lot like last year’s with Clark as the runaway favorite followed by Angel Reese, who had one heck of a season, but it just wasn’t enough. That feels a lot like Bueckers versus Dominque Malonga.
Bueckers was the No. 1 recruit in the 2020 class ahead of Clark, Reese, and others. Bueckers is beloved by the basketball community and coming off a national championship with UConn, while Malonga is an international player who stands at 6-foot-6 and should make an immediate impact after winning a silver medal with France in 2024.
If there is any bet to be made outside of Bueckers, it has to be Malonga. However, over the last 17 years, 12 of the No. 1 picks have won Rookie of the Year, so history is on Bueckers’ side. If Bueckers gets injured, then I will have a play in this market, but even a bet on Malonga right now at +550 feels like a donation until we see how she adjusts with Seattle.
Clark opened at -750 last year and went wire-to-wire for the award as the favorite gathering 66 out of 67 first-place votes. The last three No. 1 overall picks won and with Buckers listed at -370, this feels like another year of the same result. The price of -370 is too large for most people to lay, so I say use it as a parlay piece unless you have the bankroll to lay the hefty price.
Pick: Paige Bueckers -370 (parlay piece)
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