Without an unexpected turn of events, the Kansas Jayhawks will be the No. 1 overall seed when the 2016 NCAA tournament field is announced on Sunday night. That really shouldn’t be a surprise. The remaining No. 1 seed lines are still up for grabs. Virginia, Villanova, and Oklahoma are in those slots today. The next most likely candidates are Michigan State and North Carolina.
More volatile debates will be centered around teams on the bubble. Wichita State is a prime example. Reasonable people can view the Shockers’ profile differently. I imagine the same will be true of Selection Committee members when then convene in Indianapolis. One on hand, you can point to the Shockers lack of quality wins (per the RPI) and the fact their most recent losses came with a healthy roster. On the other hand, WSU is a team that won the Missouri Valley by four games, posting a 16-2 league record. They were also good on the road (9-4), played a Top 25 non-conference schedule, and currently sit 11th on the Ken Pom rankings. It’s all in the eye of the beholder, which is why it’s going to be a long week for the Shockers.
We’ll have additional updates as we move through Championship Week. In particular, keep an eye on these conference tournaments: the Atlantic 10 and American - both have multiple teams sitting along the cutline.
UPDATED: March 7, 2016
Now that we’ve reached Championship Week, teams in CAPS represent the AUTOMATIC bid. The other automatic bids are noted by the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament (as eligible). Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (ex: UCLA)
Several new bracketing principles were introduced a couple of years ago. You can read them for yourself at www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.
FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS - Dayton (First Round)
- Wichita State vs. VCU | East Region
- St. Bonaventure vs. Connecticut | Midwest Region
- Texas-Southern vs. AUSTIN PEAY | Midwest Region
- Wagner vs. FLORIDA GULF COAST | South Region
BRACKET PROJECTION ...
| MIDWEST - Chicago | EAST - Philadelphia | |
| Des Moines | Raleigh | |
| 1) Kansas | 1) Virginia | |
| 16) Tx-Southern / AUSTIN PEAY | 16) Hampton | |
| 8) Providence | 8) Seton Hall | |
| 9) Pittsburgh | 9) Saint Joseph’s | |
| Providence | Denver | |
| 5) Texas AM | 5) Maryland | |
| 12) Valparaiso | 12) Chattanooga | |
| 4) Purdue | 4) Iowa State | |
| 13) Stony Brook | 13) YALE | |
| Brooklyn | Des Moines | |
| 6) Baylor | 6) California | |
| 11) UConn / St. Bonaventure | 11) Wichita State / VCU | |
| 3) Miami-FL | 3) Indiana | |
| 14) Akron | 14) S.F. Austin | |
| Spokane | St. Louis | |
| 7) Dayton | 7) Notre Dame | |
| 10) Syracuse | 10) USC | |
| 2) Oregon | 2) Xavier | |
| 15) Weber State | 15) IPFW | |
| SOUTH - Louisville | WEST - Anaheim | |
| Brooklyn | Oklahoma City | |
| 1) Villanova | 1) Oklahoma | |
| 16) Wagner / FLA GULF CST | 16) Lehigh | |
| 8) South Carolina | 8) Saint Mary’s | |
| 9) Oregon State | 9) Butler | |
| Denver | Oklahoma City | |
| 5) Texas | 5) Iowa | |
| 12) Ark-Little Rock | 12) San Diego State | |
| 4) Duke | 4) Kentucky | |
| 13) Hofstra | 13) NORTHERN IOWA | |
| Providence | Spokane | |
| 6) Arizona | 6) Wisconsin | |
| 11) Monmouth | 11) Temple | |
| 3) West Virginia | 3) Utah | |
| 14) UAB | 14) Hawaii | |
| St. Louis | Raleigh | |
| 7) Colorado | 7) Texas Tech | |
| 10) Cincinnati | 10) Vanderbilt | |
| 2) Michigan State | 2) North Carolina | |
| 15) New Mexico State | 15) NC-ASHEVILLE |
NOTES on the BRACKET: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Virginia, Oklahoma, Villanova. Next in line: Michigan State, North Carolina, Xavier, Oregon
Last Four Byes (at large): USC, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati
Last Four IN (at large): Wichita State, Connecticut, St. Bonaventure, VCU
First Four OUT (at large): Tulsa, Gonzaga, Florida, Michigan
Next four teams OUT (at large): Florida State, Houston, George Washington, Georgia
Breakdown by Conference ...
ACC (7): NORTH CAROLINA, Virginia, Miami, Duke, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Pac 12 (7): OREGON, Utah, California, Arizona, Colorado, Oregon State, USC
Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas, Baylor, Texas Tech
Big 10 (6): INDIANA, Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin
Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Seton Hall, Providence, Butler
SEC (4): KENTUCKY, Texas AM, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
Atlantic 10 (4): DAYTON, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure, VCU
American (3): TEMPLE, Cincinnati, Connecticut
Missouri Valley (2): NORTHERN IOWA, Wichita State
West Coast (1): SAINT MARY’S
Mountain West (1): SAN DIEGO STATE
ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), UAB (C-USA), Ark-Little Rock (SBELT), Yale (IVY), Weber State (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), Stephen F. Austin (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), Hawaii (BWEST), Akron (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Austin Peay (OVC), Hofstra (CAA), UNC-Asheville (BSO), Hampton (MEAC), IPFW (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Stony Brook (AEAST), Lehigh (PAT), Wagner (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)
