Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his two best bets on the College Basketball slate, featuring Rutgers at Wake Forest, and Vermont taking on Northeastern.
Rutgers at Wake Forest (-3.5): O/U 140.5
Rutgers will make its first true road start of the year and that normally does not bode well for the Knights.
Rutgers is 3-7 in its first true road game of the year over the past 10 seasons and lost to Miami and DePaul over the past two years. Wake Forest and Rutgers met last season and the Knights won 81-57 at home, so payback is in order for the Demon Deacons.
Wake Forest is 3-0 at home with a victory over Florida this season and started last year on a 10-game home winning streak. Rutgers is not a quality road team and Wake Forest is much better at home, so I am not surprised to see the Deacons favored despite a 24-point loss last year.
The Demon Deacons hit 79.7% of its free-throw attempts (13th) and own a top 100 offense (57th in efficiency) compared to Rutgers who is hitting 64.7% from the free-throw line (313th) and ranks 293rd in effective field goal percentage (45.9%), plus 179th in offensive efficiency.
Give me Wake Forest -3.5 (-110) at home versus Rutgers out to -4. This opened at -2. It’s worth noting that Rutgers gets 23.3% of its points from the free-throw line (47th-most) and shooting below 65% from the charity stripe on the road isn’t a good mix.
Pick: Wake Forest -3.5 (1u)
Vermont (-2.5) at Northeastern: O/U 138.5
The Vermont Catamounts and Northeastern Huskies have not met since the 2018-19 season and Vermont has been the cream of the crop in their conference over that span, while Northeastern is coming off 10 or fewer wins in three straight seasons.
Vermont is coming off an insane four-point play at the buzzer to beat Yale (ranked 93rd) and I believe that momentum can carry over at Northeastern.
Vermont attempted a 3-pointer on 47.3% of its field goal attempts against DI opponents thus far, which is the 17th-highest rate in the country and has a positive matchup here.
The Huskies’ defense allows 56.1% from two-point range (314th), they cannot defend the three at 35.2% (266th), and does not force turnovers (16.3%, 258th). Northeastern has yet to win back-to-back games this season and is coming off an 81-68 win versus Old Dominion (ranked 206th).
Northeastern is 0-4 versus teams ranked in the top 200 and has one win versus a team with a winning record (East Carolina). Vermont’s two losses came to Liberty and Bradley, who are both atop their conferences and ranked in the top 110, per Kenpom.
Give me the Vermont Catamounts -2.5 (-110) out to -4.
Pick: Vermont -2.5 (1u)
Season Record: 12-3 (80%) +8.58 units
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