Twenty-year-old Harrison Burton is being fast tracked to the Cup series after two full seasons in Xfinity and one full season in the Camping World Truck Series. Only time will tell if he is ready for the move, but there are reasons to be hopeful because the ongoing relationship between Team Penske and the Wood Brothers makes this one of the most powerful satellite teams.
The announcement that Burton would replace Matt DiBenedetto in July generated a lot of interest because it came soon on the heels of the announcement that Brad Keselowski would move to RFK Racing with an ownership role. Since Austin Cindric was previously designated as the driver of the No. 21, DiBenedetto and his fans were hopeful Cindric would take over the No. 2 and leave him in the 21.
They were partly right. Cindric will move into the better-supported No. 2 car next year, but despite solid runs all season by DiBenedetto, the Wood Brothers decided to look forward with a Young Gun.
Despite his tender age of 20, Burton has spent five seasons in the support series – six if you count a single start in one of Kyle Busch‘s trucks in 2016. His first top 10 came while he was 16 on his home track of Martinsville Speedway – in fact that was also his first top-five. He finished eighth the following spring on that same track and was third in his 10th start at Iowa Speedway in 2018
Burton has not yet won in the Truck series, but he followed that third-place result at Martinsville with five more on a wide variety of tracks. All his truck starts came with KBM.
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In 2019, the only year he ran full-time in the Truck Series, he made nine starts in Xfinity. He was immediately successful with a fourth-place finish at Iowa in his second race and his first win came early in 2020 at Auto Club Speedway. Burton went on to win three more races that season and earn a total of 15 top-fives. He made the playoffs and finished eighth in the standings.
Last year, despite going winless in 2021, Burton made the playoffs again – and again finished eighth driving for Joe Gibbs Racing. Burton has always been in superior equipment and he has regularly been able to get the most out of it. Success in NASCAR often means getting more out of the car than it wants to give up – and that has simply not been a problem for Burton.
What will happen when he is challenged with equipment that has finished outside the top 10 for the past two years? DiBenedetto qualified for the playoffs in 2020 and finished 13th. Last year, he failed to make the Championship 16 in no small part because of the huge number of unique winners, but he placed the No. 21 second-best among the non-contenders (18th).
Burton has the raw talent to contend, but lacks the experience to make the playoffs as a rookie. Last year, the No. 21 team was regularly ranked outside the top 15 at PointsBet Sportsbook. All but one of the 32 events outside of the carburetor-restricted superspeedways boasted odds of +5000 or greater.
It is likely that Burton will be given even longer odds for much of first half of 2022 and that should drag his top-10 line to a plus area. If you guess correctly, he will be relevant and could add to your kitty because we predict a couple of top-10s in the first 20 or so events.
One of Burton’s four career Xfinity wins came on the paperclip-shaped bullring of Martinsville, but the other three were on unrestricted, intermediate speedways. He won at Texas Motor Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, and Auto Club.
Podium finishes in that division came at Daytona International Speedway, Darlington Raceway, Phoenix Raceway, Charlotte Motor Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and Nashville Superspeedway.
Since Nashville will host only their second Cup race next year, Burton has almost as much experience as anyone and that could be a profitable run.
Wagering on Burton could entail some risks, but you should bookmark the tracks listed above and take notes about his progress.
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