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It’s hard enough to handicap a 500-mile race, but this week the limits will be exceeded with an extra 100 miles. And as strange as it may sound in NASCAR’s longest race of the year, the Coke 600 can often go to a driver and team that employs the best strategy.
If that is not enough to keep you on your toes, there is still the not-so-little matter of the NextGen car that has created parity in the first half of the 2022 regular season to an almost unparalleled level. And brought with it sleepless nights and headaches for those of us charged with predicting outcomes.
Charlotte Motor Speedway can be home to some decent streaks but, entering this weekend, only three drivers have back-to-back top-10s on the oval as some of the conventional favorites fell to a few dark horses like Austin Dillon, Tyler Reddick, and Chris Buescher in last year’s 600. We tend to put a lot of emphasis on experience on the unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, but that doesn’t mean you should avoid longshots outright.
As we continue to try and decide exactly how the newly-configured Atlanta Motor Speedway fits with other tracks, we have separated the 2022 results from our 1.5-mile Power Ranking script. For now, the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks include Charlotte, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Kansas Speedway, and the inactive Chicagoland and Kentucky Speedways.
1. Chase Elliott
Elliott’s Charlotte win in 2020 came in a shortened, 500-kilometer race, but he is almost as strong at the full distance with five top-fives in his last six attempts. (78)
2. Kyle Larson
The Hendrick mates Larson and Elliott could almost be considered co-favorites this week, but Larson has experienced a little more recent bad luck. Still, his last four efforts on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks were firsts or seconds. (7)
3. Kyle Busch
Busch has been almost perfect on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks recently. In his last 14 attempts, he has been outside the top 10 only once and the top five on four occasions. (11)
4. William Byron
Byron has been mostly strong on this track type in the past two seasons with eight top-10s in 11 races. His other three ended outside the top 15, but we have high hopes for him after his fourth in this race last year. (46)
5. Alex Bowman
Bowman has been all over the board at Charlotte in the past few years with two top-10s in 2018/2019, two results worse than 15th in 2020, and a fifth in last year’s Coke 600. (60)
6. Ryan Blaney
In his last 11 attempts on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, Blaney has finished sixth or better five times and outside the top 10 six times. (75)
7. Christopher Bell
In the past two seasons, Bell’s average finish on this track type has been 14.4, but we think he will challenge for a top-10 since five of his last six efforts ended that well. (38)
8. Ross Chastain
This was not a particularly good track type for Chastain last year, but his 2022 potential cannot be judged through that lens. He’s capable of a top-10 on any given week. (9)
9. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin’s fourth-place finish in the AdventHealth 400 was only his second top-10 of the year, but anyone wanting to jump on his bandwagon before it gets crowded should do so now. (5)
10. Martin Truex, Jr.
Thirteen of Truex’s last 15 races on this track type ended in top-10s, but we will place him on the cusp of 10th since the last four have been outside the top five. (30)
11. Austin Dillon
Dillon is a perennial dark horse on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks to finish in the top 10. He came close a couple of times this year with an 11th at Las Vegas and a 13th at Kansas. (18)
12. Kevin Harvick
Since it wasn’t a points’ payer, the All-Star Race won’t negatively impact his 1.5-mile stats - but we expected so much more from the driver of the No. 4 last week in Texas. (50)
13. Brad Keselowski
The RFK Racing organization still has a lot of work to do, but Keselowski’s impact is slowly being felt. He finished 14th in the latest 1.5-mile race at Kansas and could challenge for another top-15. (41)
14. Tyler Reddick
Six of Reddick’s nine efforts on 1.5-mile tracks ended in top-10s last year with three other results in the 20s. He backed that up with a seventh in the Pennzoil 400, but slipped to 30th in the AdventHealth 400. (22)
15. Kurt Busch
It seems that Busch always turns in one performance per year like he had at Kansas two weeks ago, but now that he’s won, there’s no certainty he will do that again in 2022. (25)
16. Austin Cindric
The book is still being written on Cindric, so this handicap could be way off. In two starts on unrestricted 1.5-milers this year, he has a 19th and 11th, which gives us hope that he’ll challenge for a top-15. (84)
17. Chris Buescher
Buescher has a handful of top-10s on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks in the past few years with three of them coming at Charlotte in his last four attempts. (44)
18. Joey Logano
Team Penske should be much stronger on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways, but that has not shown up in Logano’s recent 1.5-mile attempts. He has only two top-10s on the unrestricted “cookie-cutter” tracks. (63)
19. Michael McDowell
In the past two seasons, McDowell has been consistent on the unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks with a best of sixth and worst of 27th. His average on this track type is about 19th. (80)
20. Chase Briscoe
Briscoe has not yet earned a top-10 on the unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks but he has been consistent with all but one of his attempts landing between 14th and 24th. (33)
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21. Bubba Wallace
With Wallace’s 10th-place finish at Kansas added to Ku. Busch’s victory, there is reason to be hopeful that 23XI Racing is starting to come into their own. If that happens, look for more top-15s from the No. 23 team. (88)
22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
The AdventHealth 400 at Kansas produced several surprisingly strong runs from otherwise mid-pack teams including Stenhouse in eighth. (53)
23. Harrison Burton
The 1.5-mile tracks are not typically kind to rookies, but Burton finished just outside the top 15 at Las Vegas and just outside the top 20 at Kansas. (35)
24. Noah Gragson
After finishing 18th in the most recent similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track race at Kansas, Gragson deserves to be on a few rosters if he fits that last niche in the lineup. (19)
25. Aric Almirola
With only one top-10 on the unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks in his last 14 races, it’s hard to get excited about Almirola for the Coke 600. The good news is that his single strong run came at Vegas this spring. (86)
26. Cole Custer
With strong runs from Chastain, Briscoe, and Reddick this season, Custer’s status as an up-and-comer has diminished. That is not entirely his fault, however, because Stewart-Haas Racing is struggling right now. (82)
27. Ty Dillon
In his two starts on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks, Dillon finished 20th at both Las Vegas and Kansas. With the extra 100 laps of the Coke 600, he could fall a little outside that mark this weekend. (69)
28. Todd Gilliland
There is not a lot of data for Gilliland on this track type, but what is there paints a pretty picture: He finished 23rd at Las Vegas and 25th at Kansas and should contend for another top-25. (72)
29. Corey LaJoie
LaJoie will not anchor many rosters, but if you build lineups from the bottom up, he should be one of your first choices with a best of 12th and worst of 23rd in his last four Charlotte attempts. (66)
30. Daniel Suarez
All it takes to turn a corner sometimes is a strong run like Suarez had last week in the All-Star race, but fate often has a different idea and Suarez finished in the 30s on the last two unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. (27)
31. Erik Jones
Jones has four top-10s this season and he’s been strong enough to earn a couple of others. His two results on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks were in the 30s, however. (57)
32. Kaz Grala
Grala will make his third points’ paying start of 2022 this week in The Money Team No. 50. In his two previous starts, he’s finished in the mid-20s, which could make him relevant in certain situations, but the data pool is not deep enough to warrant a higher seed. (12)
33. Justin Haley
All of Haley’s 1.5-mile races last year ended outside the top 25. It appeared things were turning in his favor with a 17th in the Pennzoil 400, but he fell to 35th at Kansas. (15)
34. Josh Bilicki
With some luck, Bilicki will beat this prediction and earn his third consecutive top-30 on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. (79)
35. Ryan Preece
Preece has the tenacity and skill to give the No. 15 a strong effort, but it will be practically impossible to stay within a couple of laps of the leader in the 600-mile affair. (59)
36. BJ McLeod
McLeod has five top-30s and another pair of 31st-place finishes in his last 11 races, but since that has mostly come from attrition, it’s hard to know who to handicap him above. (91)
37. Cody Ware
Most of Ware’s efforts on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks ended in the 30s, but he almost cracked the top 25 at Las Vegas this spring with a 26th. (90)
The number in parentheses after the handicap refers to our confidence level for that driver compared to the field. A low number does not necessarily mean we do not have confidence this week, but that contrasted with the others in the field in previous races, we have missed more often in their handicaps.
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Cheat Sheet: AdventHealth 400 [Kansas 1]
Pennzoil 400 [Las Vegas 1]
Wise Power 400 [Auto Club]
