This week’s race: AAA 400
Traditional Name: Delaware 400
Other Notable Names: MBNA 400, Peak Antifreeze 500, CRC Chemicals 500
Last week the Statistically Speaking column started off with the comment, “it will take some effort for the Sylvania 300 to rival the MyAFibStory.com 400 in terms of raw excitement.”
The drivers put in the effort.
Fifteen cautions waved for a total of 63 laps, and it seemed that every time the field slowed, it affected one of the Chase contenders. Given that Chasers comprise nearly 50 percent of the competitive field and 37 percent of the overall entry list, that is not surprising by itself, but the cream is supposed to rise to the top. Last week, seven of the top-10 finishers were of Chase contenders, but the remainder finished outside the top 15.
Now the field rolls into Dover International Speedway, which alternates between one of the most predictable and treacherous tracks on the circuit. The straightaways are narrow on this concrete oval and an accident exiting one of the corners has the potential to block the entire track. “Big One” crashes are not only isolated to Talladega SuperSpeedway and Daytona International Speedway, so the playoff contenders will have some sleepless nights this week.
When an race at Dover settles into a rhythm, however, this track has been host to quite a few sweeps of the top 15. In 2011, 15 drivers swept the top 15 in Dover’s pair of races and seven scored two top-10s. In 2010 and 2012, 10 drivers swept the top 15, so fantasy players will want to look to the spring FedEx 400 to help set this week’s roster.
The AAA 400 will be a test for several teams that are listed among the top 10. This is their week to step up and run as well as expected or a question mark will hover over their pits for the remainder of the Chase.
10 best drivers at Dover
Over the past six races, these drivers have the best average finish.
1. Jimmie Johnson
Last six races average finish at Dover: 4.33
Career avg. finish: 8.4 in 25 attempts
Even while Johnson has strung six consecutive top-12 finishes together this fall, critics have noted that he does not seem like the championship contender of old. That is true, but the question remains as to whether he looks different because the rules have changed and it is not time to light the wick or whether this team is struggling by their standards. Dover should help answer that question, because if he fails to challenge for his third straight victory on the high banks, something is truly wrong.
2. Clint Bowyer
Last six races average finish at Dover: 7.00
Career avg. finish: 12.1 in 17 attempts
The No. 15 team is another group for whom the AAA 400 will be a trial of their ability to perform. Since Watkins Glen, Bowyer has earned only two top-10s and another top-15 in six starts, which is disappointing in light of the fact that he qualified for the Chase last year. If Bowyer does not challenge for a top-10 this week, it may be time for fantasy owners to forget about him for a while until he begins to string strong finishes together.
3. Jeff Gordon
Last six races average finish at Dover: 8.17
Career avg. finish: 11.7 in 43 attempts
Gordon once dominated this track like Johnson is currently. Three of his four career victories at Dover came in successive races in 1995 and 1996, and while he slipped outside of the top 10 for a while in the past four seasons, he came roaring back in the 2012 AAA 400 with a second to Brad Keselowski. He swept the top five last year and was on his way to another strong run this spring until the team went the wrong way on the final adjustment.
4. Kevin Harvick
Last six races average finish at Dover: 9.33
Career avg. finish: 15.3 in 27 attempts
Harvick has been the model of consistency on most tracks, but like Gordon that trait failed him this spring. He slipped to 17th when contact with another car knocked a valve stem off his tire—causing him to lose a lap—but he was leading at the time and should have contended for at least a top-five finish. At the moment, Harvick, Gordon, Keselowski, and Joey Logano seem to be the class of the field and there is no reason to believe that is going to change in the next few races.
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Last six races average finish at Dover: 10.00
Career avg. finish: 16.2 in 29 attempts
Dover is an evaluation race for several drivers. Johnson and Bowyer have already been profiled, but Earnhardt also has a lot at stake this week. His ninth-place result in the Sylvania 300 was the first time in five races that he cracked the top 10 and he was not overly dominant in route to that finish. At Dover, his worst result in the past five races ended in an 11th-place finish, so fantasy players will know precisely where this team is by their AAA 400 effort.
6. Joey Logano
Last six races average finish at Dover: 10.83
Career avg. finish: 14.7 in 11 attempts
Logano signed a multi-year extension to his contract this week. Details on the agreement were not revealed, but it is safe to assume that the Young Gun feels secure for the moment, especially after winning the Sylvania 300 to lock into the next round of the playoffs. Dover has long been one of his best tracks and he currently has the second-longest, top-10 streak behind Bowyer. Logano has not finished worse than eighth in his last five attempts and he has earned top-10s in 64 percent of his starts there.
7. Brad Keselowski
Last six races average finish at Dover: 12.83
Career avg. finish: 17.4 in 10 attempts
Keselowski has shown more raw strength than nearly any other driver in the past four races at Dover, but a fluid leak on his engine sidelined the car for a while last fall. He finished 35th, 45 laps off the pace, but that is counterbalanced by his victory in fall 2012 and a second this spring. His five wins this season certainly do not hurt his odds of finishing among the top five either.
8. Kasey Kahne
Last six races average finish at Dover: 13.83
Career avg. finish: 21.0 in 21 attempts
Races develop themes, and Kahne fits into the same category as Johnson, Bowyer, and Earnhardt. His success this week is even more important than the others, because a poor finish will not only impact his fantasy relevance for a while, it will end his championship hopes; he currently sits six points ahead of the cutoff to advance to the Contender round on a track that is packed with peril. More distressing still is that he makes this week’s top-10 based on a pair of strong runs back at the end of 2011 and 2012; his last four results have all been 13th or worse.
9. Marcos Ambrose
Last six races average finish at Dover: 14.67
Career avg. finish: 17.8 in 12 attempts
Ambrose’s opportunities to score a win an oval race before returning to his native Australia are diminishing. He has run strong on short tracks in the past and if one expands that track type to include one-mile courses, Dover provides a long shot. This is also the site of one of his 18 Cup top-fives since he finished third in the 2011 FedEx 400. His real benefit to fantasy owners this week lies in his consistency, however; his last eight efforts at Dover all ended in the top 20.
10. Aric Almirola
Last six races average finish at Dover: 15.40 (5 starts)
Career avg. finish: 15.4 in 5 attempts
Like his teammate Ambrose, Almirola has shown a lot of consistency at Dover. In five starts there, he has a worst finish of 22nd, but the remainder of his efforts landed in the top 20. With only one top-10 to his credit, he has an uphill battle to earn enough points to climb out of 16th in the championship standings, but he is coming off a solid sixth-place effort last week at New Hampshire.
Others of Note
11. Matt Kenseth (tied with Ky Busch)
Last six races average finish at Dover: 15.50
Career avg. finish: 13.0 in 31 attempts
Back-to-back bummers cost Kenseth his spot among the top 10 in this week’s rankings, but the weight of his efforts should land him firmly at the top of the charts. In his last 13 Dover races, he has scored one victory and nine top-fives. Add another seventh-place finish to that and he has been virtually unstoppable. Unfortunately, the word “virtually” gets added to that sentence because he has not been strictly perfect with crash damage in fall 2012 and a blown engine last spring.
11. Kyle Busch (tied with Kenseth)
Last six races average finish at Dover: 15.50
Career avg. finish: 14.4 in 19 attempts
Busch’s last five seasons mirror Kenseth’s. He has been almost perfect with one victory and seven results of seventh or better in his last nine attempts. A blown engine in spring 2012 and an accident this spring skew his six-race average, but it is his accident in the FedEx 400 that defines his personality. He crashed while battling Bowyer for a position in the top five and rarely shows enough patience to make him a solid fantasy pick.
14. Carl Edwards
Last six races average finish at Dover: 16.17
Career avg. finish: 10.2 in 20 attempts
Edwards finish 11th or better in 11 straight races from 2006 through 2011, but he sustained crash damage in Dover’s first 2012 race and finished only 26th. It appeared he regained his mojo that fall with a fifth-place finish. That has not turned out to be true; his last three efforts netted a best of 14th while his erratic 2014 season makes him hard to handicap.
15. Kurt Busch
Last six races average finish at Dover: 16.50
Career avg. finish: 18.2 in 28 attempts
“Those whom the Gods seek to destroy, they first make proud,” wrote Euripides. Some versions have “mad” as the last word of that sentence, and both character traits describe the elder Busch, when mad is defined as angry instead of insane. Busch won the 2011 AAA 400 and has not earned another top-10 in the five races that followed. In fact, he has only one top-15 in that span.
17. Denny Hamlin
Last six races average finish at Dover: 17.17
Career avg. finish: 19.6 in 17 attempts
It is rare when Hamlin puts a complete race together at Dover, but it happened this spring. Prior to finishing fifth in the FedEx 400, he had five top-10s there, but only two came after he qualified on one of the first five rows. Fantasy owners could be forgiven for not seeing his seventh-place effort in time trials as a precursor to a strong run. It is also difficult to use that finish to predict this week. Four of his previous top-fives came in pairs, but Hamlin is suffering through a stretch with minimal momentum.
19. AJ Allmendinger
Last six races average finish at Dover: 17.50 (4 starts)
Career avg. finish: 22.8 in 13 attempts
Allmendinger’s fate is in his own hands this week so long as he outruns the drivers who are ranked below him the Cup points. He currently sits 10th in the standings and two of the drivers he needs to finish ahead of have worse six-race records at Dover. Five of his last eight attempts on this track ended in a result of 16th or better, so if he can match that performance on Sunday, he should be able to qualify for the Contender round of the playoffs.
21. Greg Biffle
Last six races average finish at Dover: 19.33
Career avg. finish: 13.4 in 24 attempts
This would not be the track chosen by Biffle to make his last stand in the Challenger round. He has only one top-10 in the past eight races, but the good news is that it came in this event last year. His most immediate memory is suffering crash damage in the spring, however, and that could make him tentative in traffic. On a rhythm track like Dover, that is an easy way to lose a lap to the leaders.
23. Ryan Newman
Last six races average finish at Dover: 22.33
Career avg. finish: 13.6 in 25 attempts
Newman is in a slightly better situation than Biffle. He has only one top-10 in his last seven Dover attempts and it also came last fall, but he is currently 12th in the standings. His biggest concern should be that every other driver in the Chase field has outperformed him in past six races and he only needs to be overtaken by one of the four ranked below him to see his championship dreams die for another season.
Three-year average finish | |||
Rank | Driver | 3 Year Avg. Finish | Attempts |
1. | Jimmie Johnson | 4.33 | 6 |
2. | Clint Bowyer | 7.00 | 6 |
3. | Jeff Gordon | 8.17 | 6 |
4. | Kevin Harvick | 9.33 | 6 |
5. | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 10.00 | 6 |
6. | Joey Logano | 10.83 | 6 |
7. | Brad Keselowski | 12.83 | 6 |
8. | Kasey Kahne | 13.83 | 6 |
9. | Marcos Ambrose | 14.67 | 6 |
10. | Aric Almirola | 15.40 | 5 |
11. | Matt Kenseth | 15.50 | 6 |
11. | Kyle Busch | 15.50 | 6 |
13. | Tony Stewart | 15.60 | 5 |
14. | Carl Edwards | 16.17 | 6 |
15. | Kurt Busch | 16.50 | 6 |
16. | Martin Truex Jr. | 17.00 | 6 |
17. | Denny Hamlin | 17.17 | 6 |
17. | Paul Menard | 17.17 | 6 |
19. | AJ Allmendinger | 17.50 | 4 |
20. | Jamie McMurray | 19.17 | 6 |
21. | Greg Biffle | 19.33 | 6 |
22. | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 20.75 | 4 |
23. | Ryan Newman | 22.33 | 6 |
24. | Brian Vickers | 23.00 | 3 |
25. | Austin Dillon | 23.50 | 2 |
26. | David Ragan | 25.83 | 6 |
27. | Danica Patrick | 26.00 | 4 |
28. | Casey Mears | 28.67 | 6 |
29. | Ryan Truex | 32.00 | 2 |
30. | David Gilliland | 32.67 | 6 |
31. | Travis Kvapil | 33.00 | 5 |
32. | Dave Blaney | 33.33 | 6 |
33. | JJ Yeley | 33.50 | 6 |
34. | Landon Cassill | 34.83 | 6 |
35. | Reed Sorenson | 35.20 | 5 |
36. | Josh Wise | 35.50 | 6 |
36. | Timmy Hill | 35.50 | 2 |
38. | Cole Whitt | 36.50 | 4 |
39. | David Stremme | 36.60 | 5 |
40. | Joe Nemechek | 37.40 | 5 |
41. | Mike Bliss | 39.50 | 4 |
42. | Michael McDowell | 41.00 | 5 |
Exercise Caution
Most caution flags: 16, 1993 Splitifre Spark Plug 500
Fewest caution flags: 0, 1971 Mason-Dixon 500
Average number of caution flags per race: 7.0
Final Caution, last five races:
June 2014: Lap 394 of 400: debris
September 2013: Lap 371 of 400: debris
June 2013: Lap 378 of 400: 1-car accident in turn 1, (Denny Hamlin)
September 2012: Lap of 400: 1-car accident in turn 4, (Matt Kenseth)
June 2012: Lap 365 of 400: oil
Most caution laps: 103, 1993 Splitifre Spark Plug 500
Fewest caution laps: 0, 1971 Mason-Dixon 500
Average number of caution laps per race: 44.6
Leading the way
Most leaders: 13 (3 times), 2011 AAA 400, 2000 MBNA.com 400, 1997 Miller 500
Fewest leaders: 3 (5 times), 1982 Mason-Dixon 500, 1974 Mason-Dixon 500, 1971 Delaware 500, 1970 Mason-Dixon 300, 1969 Mason-Dixon 300
Average number of leaders: 7.6
Most lead changes: 29 (2 times), 1986 Budweiser 500, 1980 CRC Chemicals 500
Fewest lead changes: 3, 1971 Delaware 500
Average number of lead changes: 17.2
Victory Lane
Last five winners at Dover (starting position):
June 2014: Jimmie Johnson (4)
September 2013: Jimmie Johnson (8)
June 2013: Tony Stewart (22)
September 2012: Brad Keselowski (10)
June 2012: Jimmie Johnson (2)
Worst starting position for race winner: 37th, Kyle Petty Miller Genuine Draft 500
A race at Dover has been won by the pole sitter 13 times and from the front row 28 times in 89 races.
Races won from the pole:
September 2010: Jimmie Johnson, AAA 400
September 2009: Jimmie Johnson, AAA 400
June 2003: Ryan Newman, MBNA Armed Forces Family 400
June 1999: Bobby Labonte, MBNA Platinum 400
September 1998: Mark Martin, MBNA Gold 400
September 1997: Mark Martin, MBNA 400
June 1996: Jeff Gordon, Miller 500
September 1993: Rusty Wallace, Splitifre Spark Plug 500
September 1990: Bill Elliott, Peak Antifreeze 500
September 1979: Cale Yarborough, Delaware 500
May 1975: David Pearson, Mason-Dixon 500
September 1973: David Pearson, Delaware 500
June 1973: David Pearson, Mason-Dixon 500
Active winners at Dover
Jimmie Johnson: 9
Jeff Gordon: 4
Ryan Newman: 3
Tony Stewart: 3
Greg Biffle: 2
Kyle Busch: 2
Matt Kenseth: 2
Kurt Busch: 1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 1
Carl Edwards: 1
Brad Keselowski: 1
Martin Truex Jr.: 1
First time winners at Dover:
2007: Martin Truex Jr., Autism Speaks 400 by Visa
1981: Jody Ridley, Mason-Dixon 500
Running at the End
The following active drivers have been running at the end of every Dover race they started:
Jamie McMurray (23)
Carl Edwards (20)
Clint Bowyer (17)
Paul Menard (14)
Brad Keselowski (9)
Aric Almirola (5)
Danica Patrick (4)
Timmy Hill (2)
Austin Dillon (2)
Cole Whitt (2)
Justin Allgaier (1)
Michael Annett (1)
Kyle Larson (1)
David Ragan failed to finish his first race in 2006, but has been running at the end of the last 15.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had a 3-race streak of running at the end snapped this summer when he crashed on lap 131.
Great Starts
Active drivers with top-10s in their first start on this track:
Jimmie Johnson: 1 (both 2002 races)
Kyle Busch: 2 (both 2005 races)
Ryan Newman: 4 (2002)
Tony Stewart: 4 (1999)
Aric Almirola: 6 (2012)
Matt Kenseth: 6 (1998)
Kevin Harvick: 8 (2001)
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: 10 (2000)
