Marlins and Padres advance to NLDS
Marlins Finish Sweep of Cubs
The Miami Marlins have never lost a playoff series in their 28 years of existence. Never.
In 1997 -- in just their fifth season -- they made their first playoff appearance. There, they swept the Giants in the NLDS, knocked off the Braves 4-2 in the NLCS and then defeated the Indians 4-3 in one of the most memorable World Series’ of the past few decades.
They blew up their roster after the championship in 1997, then finally made it back to the postseason in 2003. Again, they beat the Giants in the NLDS (3-1 this time). Then they knocked off the heavy-favorite Cubs 4-3. The Marlins then beat the Yankees in six games to capture their second World Series title.
Now, 17 years later, the Marlins are finally back in the postseason tournament. So far, so good. After rallying to beat the Cubs 5-1 in Game 1 on Thursday, the Marlins squeaked out a 2-0 victory on Friday on the back of a tremendous pitching performance from rookie right-hander Sixto Sanchez.[[ad:athena]]
The 22-year-old right-hander racked up six strikeouts while allowing just four hits and two walks over five scoreless innings. He threw 89 pitches on the afternoon -- 56 of them for strikes. Sanchez fired 27 pitches at 99 mph or higher in the game -- the second highest total in for any pitcher in a single game this season.
Even with five scoreless frames from Sanchez though, the Marlins were still in a dogfight. Yu Darvish was on his game as well, and after Brad Boxberger came on to work a scoreless sixth inning behind Sanchez, this game entered the seventh inning in a 0-0 tie.
After getting the first two outs in the seventh, Darvish had Garrett Cooper in an 0-2 hole. Cooper took a couple of pitches outside the zone though, then clobbered a go-ahead solo homer over the wall in left field. Darvish then got ahead of Matt Joyce 1-2, before Joyce smacked a double into center field. After an intentional walk to Miguel Rojas, Magneuris Sierra lined the first pitch that he saw into right field for an RBI single -- chasing Darvish.
Those two runs would be all that the Marlins would need. Boxberger stayed on to get the first out in the seventh inning before Richard Bleier came on and retired the only two hitters that he faced.
Yimi Garcia worked a scoreless eighth inning to keep the lead intact. Brandon Kintzler then surrendered a leadoff double to Jason Heyward in the ninth, but battled back to strike out the side to complete the shut out.
The Marlins have now won each of their first seven postseason series. If they’re going to extend that streak to eight consecutive series, they’ll need to get through the Braves in the NLDS beginning on Tuesday in Houston.
Padres Oust Cardinals
The Padres came into their Wild Card series against the Cardinals very short-handed in their rotation with the recent injuries to Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet. They were forced to roll with Chris Paddack in Game 1, and were put in a massive hole after he was blown up in a losing effort.
They then rolled out Zach Davies in a must-win Game 2. All he did was allow four runs in two innings of work, forcing their offense to make a massive comeback while the Padres bullpen had to log seven innings just to force Friday’s decisive Game 3.
So on Friday, manager Jayce Tingler turned to right-hander Craig Stammen to serve as an opener. He responded in a major way, getting five outs while allowing just one hit. Tim Hill was then summoned to get the next three outs and Pierce Johnson followed him to get the final out of the third inning. Adrian Morejon took over to start the fourth, and he got five outs as well without giving up a run before turning it over to Austin Adams to get the final out of the fifth.
At that point, the Padres and Cardinals were locked in a scoreless tie, as Jack Flaherty was pitching a gem of his own on the other side of the diamond. Finally, in the home half of the fifth, the Padres were able to break through. Fernando Tatis got things started with a one-out double, and Eric Hosmer cashed him in with an opposite-field RBI double with two outs in the inning.
Tingler then turned to rookie right-hander Luis Patino who was able to work a scoreless sixth inning. He was followed by Emilio Pagan, Drew Pomeranz and Trevor Rosenthal -- each of whom pitched a scoreless inning to close out an improbable shutout.
The nine pitchers that the Padres used were the most by any team in a nine-inning shutout since at least the 1901 season -- regular or postseason.
Now, there’s hope that they may have one -- or both -- of their aces back before they begin their National League Division Series against the Dodgers.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Padres are “cautiously optimistic” Mike Clevinger (elbow) will be available for the NLDS. Dinelson Lamet (biceps) played catch without issue on Friday and could also be available as well for the NLDS.
Having three days off before they begin their series against the Dodgers on Tuesday can only benefit their cause. The next few days will be very important to see how those two progress, but the Padres chances of winning that series drastically improve with Clevinger and/or Lamet in the fold.
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First Draft of 2021
While there are still a couple of weeks remaining in the postseason as Major League Baseball looks to crown a World Series Champion to culminate the 2020 season, fantasy players should be turning their attention to prep work for the 2021 season.
The biggest challenge in draft preparation for next season is going to be determining how much weight to put into the small sample that was the 2020 sprint season. For me personally, I’ll be paying close attention to the Statcast data for hitters, as they tend to normalize more quickly and should give us something tangible to work off of while making projections. For pitchers, I’ll be focusing on velocity and pitch-mix or usage changes.
I’ll also be considering 2019 results -- probably weighted toward the second half of the 2019 season -- as well as assigning a weight to what happened during the 2020 campaign. I’m only a hundred or so players deep into my projections so far, but that doesn’t mean I’m not already out there drafting.
Every season, once our final lineups are set on the Friday of the final weekend, a dedicated group of NFBC veterans gets together and starts the Premature Draft, which is the first paid draft of the 2021 season. This isn’t a mock draft, this is an actual draft where each player put up their own money, for a league that will be played out this season.
There is no average draft position data to work off of, everyone is drafting off the cuff and from their own personal rankings, projections or feelings -- depending how much prep work each drafter has completed already.
This draft usually becomes the basis for the initial average draft position. Last season, 13 of the 15 players that wound up going in the first round on average in NFBC Main Event drafts in July were selected in the first round of the Premature league.
This draft is done as a slow draft through E-mail and a Google sheet and usually takes a couple of weeks to complete. I was in the unfortunate position of getting my 14th draft slot preference via KDS, which had me wind up with the 11th pick.
Since things are slow today with no MLB postseason games to look forward to over the weekend (Seriously MLB, what’s the deal here?), I’ll give a quick look at the first six rounds of this draft as a whole, and then explore and explain the first 10 picks that I have made.
Round 1
1.01 (1) - Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF)
1.02 (2) - Fernando Tatis Jr. (SS)
1.03 (3) - Shane Bieber (P)
1.04 (4) - Mookie Betts (OF)
1.05 (5) - Mike Trout (OF)
1.06 (6) - Jose Ramirez (3B)
1.07 (7) - Gerrit Cole (P)
1.08 (8) - Juan Soto (OF)
1.09 (9) - Christian Yelich (OF)
1.10 (10) - Trevor Story (SS)
1.11 (11) - Jacob deGrom (P)
1.12 (12) - DJ LeMahieu (1B/2B/3B)
1.13 (13) - Trea Turner (SS)
1.14 (14) - Freddie Freeman (1B)
1.15 (15) - Manny Machado (3B)
Round 2
2.01 (16) - Cody Bellinger (1B/OF)
2.02 (17) - Francisco Lindor (SS)
2.03 (18) - Bryce Harper (OF)
2.04 (19) - Corey Seager (SS)
2.05 (20) - Trevor Bauer (P)
2.06 (21) - Jack Flaherty (P)
2.07 (22) - Yu Darvish (P)
2.08 (23) - Max Scherzer (P)
2.09 (24) - Bo Bichette (SS)
2.10 (25) - Lucas Giolito (P)
2.11 (26) - Aaron Judge (OF)
2.12 (27) - Alex Bregman (3B)
2.13 (28) - Walker Buehler (P)
2.14 (29) - Clayton Kershaw (P)
2.15 (30) - Aaron Nola (P)
Round 3
3.01 (31) - Zac Gallen (P)
3.02 (32) - Jose Abreu (1B)
3.03 (33) - Tim Anderson (SS)
3.04 (34) - Nolan Arenado (3B)
3.05 (35) - Kenta Maeda (P)
3.06 (36) - Whit Merrifield (2B/OF)
3.07 (37) - Luis Castillo (P)
3.08 (38) - Adalberto Mondesi (SS)
3.09 (39) - Xander Bogaerts (SS)
3.10 (40) - Gleyber Torres (SS)
3.11 (41) - Luis Robert (OF)
3.12 (42) - Kyle Tucker (OF)
3.13 (43) - J.T. Realmuto (C)
3.14 (44) - Anthony Rendon (3B)
3.15 (45) - Marcell Ozuna (OF)
Round 4
4.01 (46) - Brandon Woodruff (P)
4.02 (47) - Eloy Jimenez (OF)
4.03 (48) - Trent Grisham (OF)
4.04 (49) - Tyler Glasnow (P)
4.05 (50) - Rafael Devers (3B)
4.06 (51) - Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B)
4.07 (52) - Starling Marte (OF)
4.08 (53) - Luke Voit (1B)
4.09 (54) - Ozzie Albies (2B)
4.10 (55) - Cavan Biggio (2B/3B/OF)
4.11 (56) - Eric Hosmer (1B)
4.12 (57) - Blake Snell (P)
4.13 (58) - Keston Hiura (2B)
4.14 (59) - Teoscar Hernandez (OF)
4.15 (60) - George Springer (OF)
Round 5
5.01 (61) - Jesus Luzardo (P)
5.02 (62) - Max Fried (P)
5.03 (63) - Dinelson Lamet (P)
5.04 (64) - Michael Conforto (OF)
5.05 (65) - Zach Plesac (P)
5.06 (66) - Stephen Strasburg (P)
5.07 (67) - Austin Meadows (OF)
5.08 (68) - Sonny Gray (P)
5.09 (69) - Brandon Lowe (2B)
5.10 (70) - Corbin Burnes (P)
5.11 (71) - Mike Clevinger (P)
5.12 (72) - Jeff McNeil (2B/3B/OF)
5.13 (73) - Hyun-Jin Ryu (P)
5.14 (74) - Sixto Sanchez (P)
5.15 (75) - Josh Hader (P)
Round 6
6.01 (76) - Lance Lynn (P)
6.02 (77) - Liam Hendriks (P)
6.03 (78) - Carlos Carrasco (P)
6.04 (79) - Zack Wheeler (P)
6.05 (80) - Javier Baez (SS)
6.06 (81) - Pete Alonso (1B)
6.07 (82) - Dominic Smith (1B/OF)
6.08 (83) - Jose Berrios (P)
6.09 (84) - Chris Paddack (P)
6.10 (85) - Yoan Moncada (3B)
6.11 (86) - Salvador Perez (C)
6.12 (87) - Dylan Bundy (P)
6.13 (88) - Mike Yastrzemski (OF)
6.14 (89) - Charlie Blackmon (OF)
6.15 (90) - Matt Olson (1B)
My Draft - First 10 Rounds:
1.11 (11) - Jacob deGrom (P)
To be honest, I was shocked that both Trea Turner and deGrom were available for me to choose from at 11. The hope all along was that one of those top three SP or Turner would be there for me, I never expected two of those options. Either one would have been a great pick in this spot, but for this particular build I wanted to start out with two strong SP.
2.05 (20) - Trevor Bauer (P)
I don’t know if selecting Bauer as the SP4 will wind up being controversial or not, but that’s where he grades out on my board and I was thrilled to land him to give me the best 1-2 punch in the league. There are rumblings that the Reds may allow Bauer to work every four days in 2021, and if that indeed comes to fruition he’ll wind up in the first round.
3.11 (41) - Luis Robert (OF)
I was hoping that Adalberto Mondesi would fall to me in this spot, but I have long been a Luis Robert truther and a poor final month in his rookie season isn’t going to dissuade me. Yes, he has contact issues, and swings and misses at everything -- both inside the zone and out. But he also clubbed 11 homers, swiped nine bases and had 33 runs and 31 RBI in his first exposure to big league pitching as a 22-year-old, and did most of that while hitting in the bottom third of the White Sox lineup. I’m banking on the plate discipline improving and him making adjustments heading into 2021. This is the last year you’re going to get him outside of the first round.
4.05 (50) - Rafael Devers (3B)
2020 was a tale of two seasons for Devers. He got off to an absolutely miserable start -- slashing .183/.239/.317 with just two homers, five RBI and a 26/4 K/BB ratio through his first 21 games. He hit .307/.350/.573 with nine homers and 38 RBI over his final 36 games. I think the slow start was a product of the unusual off-season and that Devers is going to wind up back in the second round again this season. He’s still only 23-years-old.
5.11 (71) - Mike Clevinger (P)
This one may wind up as a bit of a reach, but given how strong my first two SP are I felt like I could gamble on the upside here if Clevinger is ultimately healthy for the start of the 2021 season. He was the 25th SP taken in this draft.
6.05 (80) - Javier Baez (SS)
While some fantasy players will be putting all of their stock into what happened during a 60-game sprint in 2020, I’ll be on some of the falling boring veterans who drastically under-performed this year. There’s no denying that Baez had a terrible 2020 season, slashing .203/.238/.360 with a 75/7 K/BB ratio in 59 games. I’m just not ready to write him off at the ripe old age of 27. While most of his indicators are pointing in the wrong direction, he did actually increase his hard-hit rate compared to 2019 and did post a higher max exit velocity.
7.11 (101) - Aroldis Chapman (P)
I’m the type of person that usually likes to invest early draft capital in two strong closers, rather than chase them through FAAB the entire season. I considered breaking the seal at the position with Liam Hendriks in round five, but ultimately landed on Clevinger. I was more than happy to take the Yankees’ fire-balling left-hander here as the third closer off the board. In terms of stability and job security, this position falls off a cliff in a hurry -- especially this early in the draft season with so much uncertainty.
8.05 (110) - Tommy Pham (OF)
Best pure power/speed combo left on the board at this point, health is the only major concern. As long as he stays healthy, he should provide 20+ homers and steals with ample counting stats batting in a stacked Padres lineup.
9.11 (131) - Jose Altuve (2B)
This wasn’t an expected pick for me, as I faded Altuve entirely heading into the 2020 season. Regardless of how bad he was this year though -- and how much not having signs fed to him in the middle of his at-bats hurt him -- I still thought that this was way too far of a drop. If he can get 20 homers, five swipes and solid counting stats -- while returning to being an asset in batting average -- he’ll provide plenty of profit from this spot.
10.05 (140) - Nick Anderson (P)
As I mentioned above, my preference is always to lock in two studs if possible, and Anderson certainly qualifies. Even if he’s used in a hybrid role and doesn’t get all of the saves for the Rays, the elite ratios and huge strikeout numbers will make up for it. He was drafted as the RP10 in this draft (Hendriks, Hader, Chapman, Diaz, Jansen, Hand, Colome, Iglesias, Pressly).
American League Quick Hits: Austin Meadows (oblique) was seen doing light cardio work in the outfield on Friday. They’re hopeful he’ll take live at-bats on Saturday and it sounds like he should be ready to rock for the start of the ALDS starting on Monday against the Yankees… Rays manager Kevin Cash said that he’ll announce his Game 1 starter for the ALDS on Saturday, though it’s expected to be left-hander Blake Snell… Tigers general manager Al Avila said that he’ll consider both Alex Cora and A.J. Hinch for their managerial vacancy… Avila also noted that Willi Castro should be an everyday player for the team in 2021. He certainly earned that right, hitting .349/.381/.550 with six homers and 24 RBI in 36 games as a 23-year-old… Jordan Romano (finger) said during an interview on Friday that he would have been activated from the injured list had the Blue Jays advanced to the ALDS.
National League Quick Hits: The Diamondbacks sent left-hander Joe Mantiply outright to their alternate training site after he cleared waivers… Anthony Rizzo said he’s not focused on whether or not the Cubs will exercise his $16.5 million option for next season, saying “Everything will take care of itself the way it’s supposed to”... Cardinals manager Mike Shildt said after Friday’s loss to the Padres that he hopes Yadier Molina returns for an 18th season in 2021.
