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The following is Part One of a Two-Part Series breaking down my first NFBC Main Event team from this season. It’s a deep dive from draft day straight through strategy from every week during the season. Hopefully it will provide some insight on managing a roster over the course of a long season and provide some valuable lessons going into draft prep for 2022.
One thing that I like to do at the end of every season, is take a look back at how each of my teams performed -- both in the draft and on a week-by-week basis, to see what type of knowledge and information I can gain to improve my process for next year.
What went right -- and more importantly why did it go right? Was the process correct, or did I happen to fall on the right side of luck and variance. What went wrong? Were there particular skillsets or profiles that I was too high on in retrospect? Was I too risky at any particular point in the draft, or too risk-averse as a whole? How well did my overall draft plan play out over the course of the season? How much of my production came from working the free agent wire? Did I waste FAAB on players that I really shouldn’t have, or miss premium opportunities that I should have pounced on? Did poor lineup decisions hinder me in any way? These are just a few of the many questions that I attempt to figure out when doing these reviews after the season.
I’ll generally go through this process with each of my main teams, then there have also been years where I’ve done these reviews on other teams that reached out and asked me to take a look for them -- seeing if my outside perspective could bring anything to the table. At this point in the year, anything that you can do to say focused and improve your skills going forward is a very valuable and rewarding exercise.
This season I drafted two teams in the NFBC Main Event. If you’re unfamiliar with the competition, it’s widely considered to be the top of the line, premium event in the fantasy baseball industry. The quality of competition is extremely high and the entry fee ($1700) ensures that most owners take their teams incredibly seriously and manage them to their fullest abilities for the duration of the season. The competition is broken out into individual 15-team leagues, and then is also part of an overall competition against all teams from all leagues. This year there were 645 teams in total.
The scoring is standard 5x5 roto with AVG, R, HR, RBI and SB on offense and W, SV, K, ERA and WHIP on the pitching side.
Each team has a 30-man roster -- 23 starters and 7 bench spots. The starting roster spots are broken out as: 2 Catchers, 1 First Baseman, 1 Second Baseman, 1 Third Baseman, 1 Shortstop, 5 Outfielders, 1 Middle Infielder, 1 Corner Infielder and 1 Utility spot on offense, then 9 Pitchers.
To pick up free agents for the season, each team has a $1000 Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB), in which each team submits blind bids weekly on Sunday night, where the highest bid wins that particular player. The lowest bids are $1, there are no $0 bids, so once you spend through your $1000, you can no longer add additional players.
Now that we’re up to speed on the format, the first team that I’m going to break down this season is the first of my two Main Event entries -- Dynamic Inertia ME1.
Draft Review
First, let’s take a look back at the draft and see what I had to work with (or needed to fix) heading into the season. I picked 4th in this particular league.
Round 1, Pick 4 (4): Gerrit Cole – I went into this draft -- and most of my drafts this season -- wanting to lock up an elite starting pitcher in the first round. Preferably, I wanted two aces to anchor my staff in the first three picks. While Jacob deGrom was the top target on my board (he went first overall), I was also very high on Cole and thrilled to land him as my ace.
Round 2, Pick 12 (27): Luis Castillo – Starting pitching always seems to get pushed up in the Main Event, and this draft was no different. I had hoped that Max Scherzer or Walker Buehler would fall here, but they went picks 24 and 25 respectively. I also had interest in Luis Robert if he was available here, but he went pick 21. Castillo was the top SP on my board at the time, though I acknowledge that he came with risk in the WHIP department.
Round 3, Pick 4 (34): Clayton Kershaw – The plan coming in most certainly wasn’t to start with three straight starting pitchers, that’s just how this particular draft unfolded. After nabbing Castillo in 2, I understood that my team had risk in WHIP -- and a ton of K’s through the first two rounds. Adding Kershaw -- this particular player -- seems like a great balance to smooth out that ratio risk while giving me a massive starting pitching base. The one bat that I would have taken in this spot was Kyle Tucker, but he went at the turn (pick 30) in between my picks.
At this point, my belief was that I had a very strong base in starting pitching, but couldn’t afford to dedicate any more early draft capital to the position -- especially since my preferred draft plan also called for nabbing an elite closer. Going three rounds without a hitter is an uncomfortable place to be, and I knew that the focus for the next four rounds would have to be three hitters and my premium closer.
Round 4, Pick 12 (57): Randy Arozarena – If having no hitters through the first three rounds wasn’t uncomfortable enough, compounding that by making my first hitter an unproven rookie who had played just 42 regular season games at the big league level before bursting onto the scene in the postseason was a serious gamble. He was a target of mine going in though, as I didn’t see many players that offered his combination of power and speed available in the fourth round or later. Had Liam Hendriks or Josh Hader been available here, I would have taken the elite closer first and hoped that Arozarena would make it back on the short turn.
Round 5, Pick 4 (64): Aroldis Chapman – Hader and Hendriks were the only two closers off the board at this time (at picks 47 and 52 respectively), and Chapman was the next highest on my board. There were only a handful of elite closers that I believed were sure things heading into the season, and all of them would likely be gone before I pick again in round six. The goal coming into the draft was to get one elite closer, and then another from the next tier (or two from the third tier). The goal, was to not be chasing saves in FAAB all season as it can be a maddening endeavor and isn’t a guarantee to be fruitful. I felt great locking in Chapman in this spot.
So through five rounds I’ve got three strong SP, an elite closer and a dynamic outfielder who should provide 20+ homers and 20+ steals. The plan of attack for the next five rounds would be to bolster the offense -- likely with five hitters in a row -- making sure to add as much power and speed as I can.
Round 6, Pick 12 (87): Jose Altuve - Not a player that I had specifically targeted heading into the draft, but not one that I had crossed off my draft board either. With Arozarena as the only hitter on my squad, I just needed some solid, stable production. I was willing to write off the poor 2020 season from Altuve and liked what I saw from him in the spring. Was hoping for a bounce-back to around 20 homers, a helpful batting average, solid counting stats and somewhere in the 6-10 range for stolen bases.
Round 7, Pick 4 (94): J.D. Martinez – Speaking of being willing to write off a poor 2020 season, enter J.D. Martinez. I’ve been a big believer in his skillset for a long time and got to watch him in a nightly basis in Detroit for several years. I knew how important being able to review video during the game was to him and bought into the narrative that not having it in 2020 was a major reason for his decline. There usually aren’t many players on the board around pick 100 that are capable of providing .300/30/100, and I thought the upside of him returning to form was worth the gamble -- and worth locking up my utility spot. The other player I considered in that spot was Paul Goldschmidt, and in hindsight that would have worked out even better.
Heading into round 8 I felt better about my offense as a whole, now that I added a couple of solid (boring) capable veterans. That helped to even out the risk from depending so much on Arozarena. The problem though, is that neither Altuve or Martinez could be counted on for stolen bases. Speed was becoming a problem and needed to be a focus in the next few rounds.
Round 8, Pick 12 (117): Andres Gimenez – Oof. I’m not usually one to buy into preseason hype, but I got caught up in it this time. Coming off a strong debut in 49 games with the Mets, it appeared as though Gimenez was going to be the team’s starting shortstop and hit near the top of the lineup. Given my lack of stolen bases at this point, I liked the upside that he would bring to the table in that category.
Round 9, Pick 4 (124): Ke’Bryan Hayes – Hayes was another target of mine in many drafts, as I believed he was poised for a major breakout season. I also liked the fact that since I wasn’t getting many stolen bases out of my second base spot (Altuve), I would be able to add some speed from a non-traditional position at third base to make up for it.
At this point, I felt really good about where my team stood through nine rounds. I was still lacking a bit in stolen bases -- and would need to keep that in mind -- but the core was coming together nicely. In my predraft plan, I had already mapped out rounds 12-14 as a spot where I wanted to secure three of my favorite targets all at or above their earliest ADP -- Mitch Haniger, Willi Castro and Ty France. With that in mind, that only gave me the next two picks to deviate and fill in elsewhere. I still needed a fourth SP and waiting until round 15 would see a major drop at the position. I’m also a major proponent in getting two quality catchers and would be looking to grab one in the next two rounds if I liked what was available.
Round 10, Pick 12 (147): Shohei Ohtani – This is an interesting pick for a variety of reasons. Ohtani was a player that I liked coming into the draft, and he was usually off the board already by this spot. If taking him here, the idea would have to be to use him primarily as my SP4, since my utility spot was already locked up by J.D. Martinez. I also believed in his sprint speed and overall upside in stolen bases though, and felt that with my current roster construction, perhaps I could platoon him and Martinez some weeks depending on whether I had a bigger need for power or speed. There was also a decent chance -- especially with several interleague series in National League parks -- that Martinez could gain outfield eligibility (10 games needed), which would allow me to play both together at some point. Thankfully, I pulled the trigger here, even with my UTIL spot already filled.
Round 11, Pick 4 (154): Christian Vazquez – Still feeling like I was chasing stolen bases, combined with the fact that I wanted to lock up a strong catcher early on, this pick made perfect sense for me in this spot.
Round 12, Pick 12 (177): Mitch Haniger – This was the plan going into the draft, pounce on Haniger before anyone else had the chance to do so. His average Main Event ADP ended up being 194, with a min pick of 167. He looked healthy and strong during the spring and I felt as long as he could stay healthy, he was capable of providing 20-25 homers with great counting stats, a handful of steals and a plus batting average. That kind of five-category contribution is difficult to find in the middle rounds.
Round 13, Pick 4 (184): Jarred Kelenic – This one irks me a little bit, as I’m never the one to buy into the hype of the top prospects, yet I still deviated from my plan (Willi Castro) and took the can’t-miss Mariners outfielder here. It probably had something to do with the allure of his stolen base potential and my belief that I was still chasing in that category.
Round 14, Pick 12 (207): Willi Castro – Fortunately for me (or unfortunately as it would turn out), Castro was still available for me in the next round. The predraft target that I had here though ( Ty France) was also available. With Altuve and Gimenez already in tow, I only had room for one middle infielder and I’d have to pick which one I preferred. Once again I sided with the speed and took Castro.
Round 15, Pick 4 (214): Andrew Benintendi –This was a good time to pivot and grab a fourth outfielder, as I knew that Kelenic wouldn’t be available for the first couple of weeks of the season and I would need depth at the position. I liked his chances of bouncing back and providing some power and some speed -- thinking maybe 15 homers and 5-10 SB. I did consider grabbing Richard Rodriguez here as a second closer, but thought there was a chance he could make it back around.
We’re now halfway through the draft. I’ve secured a catcher, second baseman, third baseman, shortstop, middle infielder, four outfielders, utility, four starting pitchers and one elite closer. That means I still had to find a second catcher (preferably soon as I wanted two solid guys at the position), a first baseman, corner infielder, at least two outfielders (since Kelenic wouldn’t be available to start the year), plus I still needed a second closer and a couple of starting pitchers (preferably with high strikeout upside).
Round 16, Pick 12 (237): Richard Rodriguez – Still needing a second closer in round 16 wasn’t a position that I wanted to be in, so I was thrilled to see Rodriguez still on the board at this point. There was a good chance that he would be dealt mid-season, so I would still have to look for a third closer in the draft, but the expectation was that he’d provide solid and reliable production through July.
Round 17, Pick 4 (244): Robbie Ray – Talk about looking for the right thing at the right time. I’ve always been a big believer in Ray’s strikeout upside and he was atop the list of my pitching targets at this particular point in the draft. His average Main Event ADP was pick 260, so I jumped a full round to grab him here. The reason that it made sense though, is that I felt I built up such a strong ratio base with my first four SP (three aces and Ohtani), that I could take on the WHIP risk from Ray as long as he could deliver the big strikeout totals we’ve become accustomed to.
Round 18, Pick 12 (267): Jeimer Candelario – This was another predraft target of mine. I felt the first base position was incredibly deep and had hoped to grab Candelario or Jared Walsh as my first baseman around this stage of the draft. Walsh went much earlier in this draft (pick 235), so I was happy to lock in Candelario in this spot.
Round 19, Pick 4 (274): Buster Posey – I waited longer than I wanted to in order to lock up my second catcher spot, but was still able to land a high-quality option. The hope was that Posey would provide a help in batting average -- especially compared to the drain that many fantasy managers get from the second catcher spot -- while delivering around 10 homers and decent counting stats for a catcher.
Round 20, Pick 12 (297): David Dahl – Still needing a fifth (and sixth) outfielder, this seemed like a great spot in the draft to target those positions. Dahl had a tremendous prospect pedigree and an impressive blend of power and speed. The feeling was that as long as he could avoid the injured list, he could deliver ample profit from this spot from the middle of the Rangers lineup.
Round 21, Pick 2 (304): Justin Upton – This would usually be a bit early to lock in my sixth outfielder, but again with Kelenic representing a dead spot for at least a few weeks, I wanted to make sure my bases were covered here. The hope had been to get Robbie Grossman and his 12/12 upside in this spot, but he was snaked on the turn at pick 301. Upton had a Main Event ADP around 270 though and I was happy to take the falling value there for a player I thought would drive in tons of runs hitting behind Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon.
Round 22, Pick 12 (327): Ian Kennedy – With Rich Rodriguez likely to be dealt mid-season, I was in the market for a third closer to secure my position in saves. Kennedy had not yet been named the closer in Texas, but the writing looked to be on the wall based on preseason usage and talk from manager Chris Woodward.
Round 23, Pick 4 (334): Casey Mize – Perhaps this is part of the homer in me shining through, as I had already targeted and drafted Willi Castro and Jeimer Candelario -- while missing out on another target in Robbie Grossman. I went back to the Tigers well again though, hunting for upside with my SP6.
Round 24, Pick 12 (357): Jonathan Villar – Once a player displays a skill, he owns it, right? Villar performed as a first round fantasy pick in both 2016 and 2019, and he looked to be in line for fairly regular at-bats with the Mets -- in addition to having multiple positions of eligibility. Seemed like a nice bench bat that could add some speed if necessary.
Round 25, Pick 4 (364): Brandon Belt – While I had a tremendous amount of confidence in Jeimer Candelario at first base, I waited a long time at the position -- and even longer to secure my starting corner infielder. Belt represented a solid, stable veteran bat who should be in the lineup every day -- and that has value at this point in the draft.
Round 26, Pick 12 (387): Jake Arrieta – This wasn’t necessarily a vote for Arrieta and his long-term outlook, this was merely using this spot to stream a starting pitcher for the first few weeks of the season. Arrieta was set to begin the year with two starts against the Pirates. The plan would be to use him for those two starts, then cut bait.
Round 27, Pick 4 (394): Jay Bruce – With a preseason injury to Luke Voit, it looked as though Jay Bruce was set to see everyday at-bats in the Yankees lineup to begin the season. That was enough for me to justify a pick in round 27.
Round 28, Pick 12 (417): Jonathan India – A hot riser on fantasy draft boards in mid-March, India was likely to open the season as the Reds starting second baseman -- though it hadn’t been named yet. I liked the skillset and the upside at this point of the draft. He also came in with third base eligibility (in addition to gaining second base early in the season), meaning he could be used at corner as well.
Round 29, Pick 4 (424): Mike Foltynewicz - Was set to open the season in the Rangers starting rotation, had flashed plenty of upside and potential in the past -- worth a look that he could recapture that magic in Texas.
Round 30, Pick 12 (447): Julio Teheran– Teheran found a mechanical flaw that led to decreased velocity and effectiveness over the last few seasons and felt that changing his arm slot would correct the problem. The early results in the spring seemed to back that up -- including increased velocity, so I felt it was worth a look.
Coming out of the draft, we have…
C – Christian Vazquez, Buster Posey
1B – Jeimer Candelario
2B – Jose Altuve
3B – Ke’Bryan Hayes
SS – Andres Gimenez
CI – Brandon Belt
MI – Willi Castro
OF – Randy Arozarena, Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi, David Dahl, Justin Upton
UTIL- J.D. Martinez
SP –Gerrit Cole, Luis Castillo, Clayton Kershaw, Shohei Ohtani, Robbie Ray, Jake Arrieta
RP - Aroldis Chapman, Richard Rodriguez, Ian Kennedy
Bench – Jarred Kelenic, Jonathan Villar, Jonathan India, Jay Bruce, Casey Mize, Mike Foltynewicz, Julio Teheran
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In-Season Review
To remind everyone, When trying to compete for the overall title in the NFBC, your goal should be to finish in the top 20% of every category. Through analyzing past data and trying to predict rough final numbers for 2021, we set our target numbers that we would need to achieve this at .269 AVG / 1150 Runs / 360 HR / 1107 RBI / 125 SB on offense and roughly 94 W / 1476 K / 73 Saves / 3.845 ERA / 1.202 WHIP on the pitching side of the ledger.
This would equate to roughly .269/44 R/13.8 HR/42.5 RBI/4.8 SB per week on offense and 3.6 Wins / 57 K / 2.8 Saves and 3.845/1.202 per week pitching.
Week 0 FAAB: Since this league drafted during the first weekend of Main Event drafts, there was a FAAB period before the season actually began. During that first FAAB run I swapped out Julio Teheran for Chris Archer for $2 (runner up bid of $1). The thought was that Archer, if healthy, had a much higher ceiling than Teheran and a better matchup in his first start.
Period 1: (Half Week)
(153 AB) .301 AVG / 34 R / 6 HR / 18 RBI / 0 SB
The first period is only a half week’s worth of games, so we’re looking to hit half of those hitting targets. The at-bats are solid and the runs scored total is huge, but we came up a bit short in both home runs and RBI while taking a goose egg in stolen bases. Jose Altuve hit .375 and scored eight runs over the first weekend to lead the way while Buster Posey smacked a pair of home runs. David Dahl also got off to a nice start hitting .385 with five runs scored, while Justin Upton homered and drove in four. Shohei Ohtani homered twice and stole a base, but we used him as a pitcher instead.
(29.0 IP) 1 W / 29 K / 1 SV / 6.52 ERA / 1.72 WHIP
Not at all how you draw it up -- digging yourself into a huge hole in ratios to begin the season. Luis Castillo was the main culprit, getting blasted for eight earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, while Clayton Kershaw was also knocked around. Richard Rodriguez picked up a save. My lone victory came from Jake Arrieta streaming against the Pirates. Chris Archer pitched poorly in two innings then went on the IL.
FAAB: Heading into week two I was still looking to solidify my standing in saves, as any time a potential closer becomes available in FAAB they’re highly sought after. I also wanted to upgrade the Brandon Belt spot on my roster as it looked as though he would sit against left-handed pitching and I wanted someone with more secure at-bats.
I added Kevin Ginkel ($33 to $19) and Miguel Rojas ($16 to $8) with Archer and Belt as the drops. Julian Merryweather ($231), Cesar Valdez ($207), Yermin Mercedes ($201), Chris Flexen ($18) were among the interesting names added elsewhere.
Period 2
(296 AB) .267 AVG / 40 R / 13 HR / 49 RBI / 4 SB
Pace: +.010 / +8 R / -1.7 HR / +3.25 RBI / - 3.2 SB
Another solid at-bat total. The RBI made up for the poor number in the category in the first scoring period, everything else was a little light. We’re already 3.2 steals behind the pace that we’re looking for -- which could just be an early-season aberration, or it could be a warning sign that we’re majorly deficient there. J.D. Martinez led the way hitting .458 with eight runs, four homers and 13 RBI. Christian Vazquez had a monster week, hitting .370 with two homers, two steals, seven runs scored and five RBI. Arozarena homered twice and stole a base. Jonathan India drove in nine runs without hitting a homer. FAAB addition Miguel Rojas swiped a base. Jay Bruce went just 1-for-17 and could be a drop. David Dahl went an empty 2-for-16. Ohtani homered, drove in five and stole a base, but we again used in the pitcher’s spot.
(51.1 IP) 6 W / 59 K / 2 SV / 1.58 ERA / 0.90 WHIP
Pace: +1.6 W / +2.5 K / -1.2 SV / +0.77 / +0.11
Now this is the type of performance you’re looking for when drafting three aces to lead your staff and goes a long way to correcting the ratio damage from the first weekend. Clayton Kershaw allowed just one run over 13 frames while winning both of his starts, Cole and Castillo each fired seven shutout innings and earned wins -- Cole with 13 Ks. Foltynewicz pitched well in two starts, striking out 10, but didn’t earn a win. Jake Arrieta once again beat the Pirates. Both saves came from Ian Kennedy. Shohei Ohtani was scratched from his scheduled start, giving us a zero in that roster spot.
FAAB: Ke’Bryan Hayes went to the injured list with a wrist injury and is expected to miss several weeks. With Villar, Castro and India I have the flexibility to cover third base, but bench depth will become an issue carrying two zeroes in Kelenic and Hayes. On the pitching side, the plan was to ride Arrieta for the two starts against the Pirates and then move on -- don’t get attached they were just good matchups.
The lone pickup of the week is Amed Rosario ($57 to $17) with Miguel Rojas as the drop. With Andres Gimenez struggling, it looked as though Rosario would take over as the everyday shortstop. Adding Rosario would at least give us coverage as one of them should keep full-time at-bats there. Other interesting adds around the league were Lou Trivino ($188), Travis Shaw ($133), Taylor Rogers ($88), Tyler Naquin ($47) and Brandon Belt ($13).
Period 3
(267 AB) .228 AVG / 39 R / 6 HR / 31 RBI / 4 SB
Pace: -0.009 / +3 R / -9.5 HR / -8.25 RBI / -4 SB
Yuck. This is a miserable week offensively and could be a sign of serious trouble on the horizon. Only getting 267 at-bats is a problem. Only getting half of the home run total that we need to keep pace is a problem, while falling further behind in both RBI and stolen bases. Mitch Haniger was the bright spot, hitting .429 with seven runs, two homers and eight RBI. Gimenez -- playing to keep his job -- hit .308 with a homer and two stolen bases. Jeimer Candelario hit .370 and scored four runs. Everything else was pretty bleak. Justin Upton had just eight at-bats for the week, Jay Bruce had just seven and announced his retirement. Ohtani homered again and drove in four, still using him in the pitcher’s spot though with J.D. Martinez at UTIL.
(57.1 IP) 4 W / 64 K / 2 SV / 2.67 ERA / 0.98 WHIP
Pace: +2 W / +9.5 K / -2 SV / +1.06 / +0.20
At least the pitching made up for the bad week out of the offense. Gerrit Cole was the horse that we drafted him to be, striking out 18 over 12 1/3 innings in his two starts while winning a game. Kershaw fired six shutout innings and earned a win. Casey Mize pitched well in double starts and picked up a victory, and Richard Rodriguez earned a win in relief. Luis Castillo was clobbered for the second time in three starts though, which is discouraging. We reluctantly held onto Jake Arrieta and threw him against the Brewers with predictably poor results.
FAAB: We’re carrying two zeroes on offense in Kelenic and Hayes while bleeding at-bats. Bruce obviously needs to be replaced. Also, Posey is banged up and could hit the IL, so we need to add a catcher to be on the safe side. We’re falling way behind in stolen bases and in homers and have a small deficiency in RBI as well. The pitching has been good, but we’re already two saves off the pace, even with three closers.
We make four additions this week - Willie Calhoun ($68 to $21), Joe Ross ($54 to $28), Josh VanMeter ($3 unopposed) and Kurt Suzuki ($3 unopposed). The drops are Bruce, Ginkel, Foltynewicz and Villar who isn’t seeing consistent enough at-bats. Calhoun has a strong pedigree and is in line to get everyday at-bats in the Rangers outfield. Could be a difference maker.
Other interesting additions around the league are David Peterson ($125), Zach McKinstry ($120), Miguel Rojas ($64), Giovanny Gallegos ($43), Kyle Gibson ($17),
Period 4
(259 AB) .232 AVG / 35 R / 12 HR / 28 RBI / 2 SB
Pace: -.017 / -6 R / -11.3 HR / -22.75 RBI / -6.8 SB
The poor offensive results continue. The low at-bat total for the second straight week is a major red flag that massive changes need to be made here. Once again we’re way short on RBI and stolen bases while missing the mark on the front three categories as well. Andrew Benintendi homered and stole a base while scoring five runs. J.D. Martinez scored six runs, homered twice and hit .285. Kurt Suzuki added a homer in the front half of the week while covering for Posey, but Posey wound up returning Wednesday and homered twice on the bench. Willie Calhoun hit .364 and homered in his Dynamic debut. Josh VanMeter belted a three-run homer in his only game in our lineup. Ohtani blasted three homers and stole a base on the bench.
(57.0 IP) 3 W / 55 K / 6 SV / 4.58 ERA / 1.21WHIP
Pace: +1.4 W / +7.5 K / +1.2 SV / +0.53 / +0.13
The ERA is a bit inflated, but you’ll take that pitching week without question. The six saves are massive and put us back ahead of the number there. Aroldis Chapman tallied three of those, with two from Rodriguez and one from Kennedy. Jake Arrieta stayed on the roster as he was in line for two starts, and he allowed only one run in each while earning a victory. Joe Ross got clobbered in his double, giving up 11 runs in 10 1/3 innings, but did earn a win. Cole and Kershaw pitched well, Castillo got hit hard in two starts. Robbie Ray returned from the IL and struck out nine over six innings on the bench.
FAAB: With Posey back, Suzuki looks like an easy drop. It’s probably time to upgrade Dahl, as he has struggled and is now losing at-bats to Calhoun in the Rangers lineup. Once again, now is the time to sell high on Arrieta -- we’ve gotten everything that we can expect to get out of him.
We wind up making a pair of big additions this week, adding Domingo German ($141 to $128) and Tyler O’Neill -- who was dropped the week prior -- ($44 to $41). The drops were VanMeter and Suzuki. Other interesting adds around the league are Adolis Garcia ($325), Jake Diekman ($84), Alex Wood ($84), Foltynewicz ($25), Flexen ($18), Daulton Varsho ($1).
Period 5
(276 AB) .264 AVG / 32 R / 12 HR / 33 RBI / 7 SB
Pace: -.014 / -18 R / -13.1 HR / -32.25 RBI / -4.6 SB
Good news Indians fans! For the first time in weeks, the offense seems to be showing signs of life!! The at-bat total is improved -- still not where we want it -- but better. The seven swipes are a very welcomed sight. The other numbers still aren’t what we’re looking for, but they’re at least in the neighborhood. We’re well behind the pace in all five offensive categories. Buster Posey hit .588 for the week with a pair of homers and five RBI, Willie Calhoun homered again and scored four runs. J.D. Martinez homered twice and plated five runs. Amed Rosario homered and stole a base. Arozarena swiped two. The real hero, was Tyler O’Neill who homered twice, stole two bases, scored six runs, drove in five and hit .393. Welcome to the squad. Jonathan India was banged up and totaled just four at-bats on the week. David Dahl hit .105 on the bench and should have been dropped last week.
(39.1 IP) 4 W / 53 K / 6 SV / 1.60 ERA / 0.69 WHIP
Pace: +1.8 W / +3.5 K / +4.4 SV / +0.97 / +0.24
Once again, the pitching absolutely killed it. Getting four wins and six saves in only 39 1/3 innings is crazy efficient, with unbelievable ratios to boot. Cole led the way by striking out 12 over six scoreless. Domingo German fired seven shutout innings with six strikeouts and a victory in his team debut. Kershaw also hurled seven scoreless and earned a win. Joe Ross was scratched from his start, giving us a zero. Ian Kennedy tallied three of the six saves. Shohei Ohtani picked up a win. Robbie Ray hurled another gem on the bench -- maybe it’s time to start using that guy. Arrieta (who is still rotting on the bench for some reason) was clobbered again.
FAAB: With India banged up and losing playing time to Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel, perhaps we should be on the lookout for an upgrade in playing time. Arrieta and Dahl should have been gone two weeks ago, it’s time to cut the cord.
All of these available drops, and what do I do? Add Niko Goodrum ($14 to $5) and drop Arrieta. It’s great that I pulled the trigger there, but there were missed opportunities for other upgrades here. Notable pickups this week include: Stefan Crichton ($219), Shane McClanahan ($191), Nico Hoerner ($163), Luis Garcia ($41), Harrison Bader ($26) and Tyler Naquin ($9).
Period 6
(278 AB) .284 AVG / 50 R / 9 HR / 42 RBI / 6 SB
Pace: -.009 / -12 R / -17.9 HR / -32.75 RBI / -3.4 SB
The at-bat total is solid again, and most of the production across the board followed suit -- but we fell even further behind in home runs. The catchers both did work, Vazquez hitting .444 with four runs, six RBI and a swipe, Posey hitting .636 with five runs and a pair of homers. Jose Altuve hit a pair of bombs. New acquisition Niko Goodrum hit .381 with four RBI and two swipes. J.D. Martinez homered, drove in five and scored a whopping nine runs. India and Gimenez split the week in my CI slot and totaled just 10 at-bats. That Ohtani fellow had another two homers and six RBI on the bench. Martinez has logged five games in the outfield -- halfway to earning eligibility there.
(52.1 IP) 2 W / 54 K / 6 SV / 4.13 ERA / 1.20 WHIP
Pace: +0.2 W / +0.5 K / +7.6 SV / +0.77 / +0.21
Man, I could get used to these six save weeks. It was Kennedy with three again, Rodriguez with two and Chapman with just one, but he also earned a win. Joe Ross pitched decently in double starts, getting 10 K’s, but no wins. Domingo German pitched very well in his double, tallying 12 strikeouts, but again no win. Luis Castillo was bombed yet again and looks like a real problem. Robbie Ray struck out nine in our lineup, but did not record a win.
FAAB: Still need to cut the dead weight in David Dahl. It’s not going to work out. Could also use an additional starting pitcher, but don’t have an obvious drop. Casey Mize isn’t working that deep into games and isn’t striking many guys out. He could go for the right opportunity.
We made two additions this week. Bringing back Jonathan Villar ($36 to $31) -- who is now seeing everyday at-bats with J.D. Davis and others sidelined for the Mets, and adding Luke Weaver ($13 to $12). Dahl and Mize were the drops.
Other interesting adds from this week: Marco Gonzalez ($89), Hunter Renfroe ($48), Brandon Crawford ($27), Tarik Skubal ($10), Gallegos ($1). Fun note, I had Crawford next on my bid list as the conditional behind Villar.
Period 7
(275 AB) .247 AVG / 43 R / 12 HR / 32 RBI / 6 SB
Pace: -.011 / -13 R / -19.7 HR / -43.25 RBI / -2.2 SB
We’d like to see the weekly at-bats closer to 300, but can’t complain about starting to hit 275 consistently. The power numbers are still a touch short, we’ll gladly take the six swipes though. We’re making up ground in speed, but falling further off the pace in home runs. Two of those swipes came from Goodrum, who also scored five runs on the week. Welcome back Jonathan Villar who homered and stole a pair of bases. Mitch Haniger crushed four long balls and scored seven runs. Jose Altuve hit .391 with a homer, five runs and four RBI. Jonathan India homered and stole a base in an effort to stay in good standing. Another rough week for both Willi Castro and Andres Gimenez. Jarred Kelenic finally arrived with a homer and three RBI. Tyler O’Neill homered twice and drove in four in the first half of the week, but then went on the IL with a fractured finger.
(56.0 IP) 6 W / 72 K / 2 SV / 2.25 ERA / 0.86 WHIP
Pace: +2.6 W / +15.5 K / +6.8 SV / +1.02 / +0.27
Another really sexy pitching week across the board. Massive strikeout total, six victories, elite ratios and still a pair of saves. And to top it off, Luis Castillo had another disaster (eight earned in 3 2/3), but this one was on the bench. Robbie Ray fanned 19 and won a game in his double start week. FAAB addition Luke Weaver threw 10 1/3 shutout innings and earned a win in his two starts, but also left his second start with an injury and looks to be IL-bound. Shohei Ohtani fanned 10 over seven brilliant innings. Gerrit Cole whiffed 12 over eight scoreless in a win. Domingo German won again, striking out six over six innings of one-run ball. Both saves this time came from Chapman.
FAAB: Things have been looking up as a whole over the last few weeks, but there’s still plenty of work to be done. Gimenez and Castro are major disappointments and both losing playing time. Having Villar and his eligibility makes both of them potential drops. India is still losing time and hitting at the bottom of the lineup. Luke Weaver and Joe Ross both could be drops as well. Just can’t cut Castillo at this point, have to think he turns it around eventually. Even with O’Neill on the IL, he isn’t a drop. He should be back in a few weeks and possesses the kind of power/speed combo that you just can’t usually find via FAAB.
It wound up being another light week for FAAB. Added Spencer Howard ($11 to $3) and Mike Brosseau ($2 unopposed), dropping Weaver and Ross. Interesting adds around the league included Jake Odorizzi ($100), Jose Alvarado ($100), Casey Mize ($70), David Dahl ($24), Jake Arrieta ($11), Jonathan Schoop ($5). I’d wind up kicking myself for weeks for not cutting some of the dead weight in the middle infield and adding Schoop here. That’s two big misses with him and Crawford from the week prior.
Period 8
(321 AB) .252 AVG / 45 R / 14 HR / 42 RBI / 7 SB
Pace: -.012 / -12 R / -19.5 HR / -43.75 RBI / +0 SB
Awesome at-bat number for the first time all season. Notice how the added at-bats push the rest of the counting stats right to where they need to be. Maximize at-bats people, it’s that simple. Randy Arozarena had a monster week, hitting .345 with nine runs, three homers, eight RBI and a swipe. J.D. Martinez homered twice, Villar homered twice and stole a base. Kelenic went 2-for-19 with no runs, no RBI, but he did steal a base. Goodrum swiped another bag. Jose Altuve hit .355 and scored seven runs. Amed Rosario hit .417 and stole a base, and looks to have rendered Andres Gimenez useless on the Indians roster as he was demoted to Triple-A. Ohtani with two more bombs and six RBI while being used as a pitcher.
(56.0 IP) 5 W / 65 K / 3 SV / 3.05ERA / 1.11 WHIP
Pace: +4 W / +23.5 K / +7 SV / +1.05 / +0.26
Man I love this pitching staff so far. Gerrit Cole struck out 14 and won a game in his double start week. I rolled the dice and used Castillo for his double, and got 16 strikeouts from him, along with a miserable 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Robbie Ray was terrific again, with seven K’s over seven innings but didn’t win. Domingo German did win again, this time with seven shutout innings. Aroldis Chapman was a monster with two wins and two saves.
FAAB: Brosseau was only added last week because he had four lefties on tap for this week. He looks like an easy drop. I continue to waffle on India. He’s still hitting in the bottom of the lineup and had another empty week offensively. Gimenez has been demoted, and though his upside remains high, we simply need at-bats from that spot. Willi Castro continues to struggle, and we’re still carrying a dead spot in Ke’Bryan Hayes, so the rest of the bench hitters need to be capable. We added Spencer Howard last week, but didn’t use him -- though he’s tentatively lined up for two starts next week.
We wind up making two moves this week -- regrettably. The big addition was Danny Santana ($78 to $25) and Corbin Martin ($37 to $16) with India and Brosseau as the drops. I have long been a Danny Santana truther and thought that his immense upside in power and speed was worth the big gamble if he was going to play fairly regularly for the Red Sox. He had just come up that weekend, homering and stealing a base in his first game, then leaving the yard again on Saturday. I don’t necessarily regret the addition, because the process was sound, what I regret was the drop. Cutting India instead of Gimenez or Castro was a terrible move in hindsight, as Gimenez had been demoted and wasn’t likely to return any time soon, and Castro had simply been terrible. India was at least still playing several times a week.
Other interesting additions from this week were Brady Singer ($109), Taylor Walls ($44), Joey Votto ($33), Eric Haase ($9). It certainly would have been nice to have been shopping for a corner infielder this week and found my way to the incoming Votto power surge. Oh wait, I was shopping for a corner infielder this week and went big on Danny Santana instead ::facepalm::
Period 9
(269 AB) .238 AVG / 39 R / 10 HR / 40 RBI / 6 SB
Pace: -.014 / -17 R / -23.3 HR / -46.25 RBI / +1.2 SB
The at-bat total falls back down a tick, and the counting stats fall right along with it. The big spend from this past FAAB, Danny Santana, goes 1-for-6 with an RBI and gets hurt halfway through the week. Tyler O’Neill returned over the weekend to smack a pair of homers and drive in five runs. J.D. Martinez finally gained eligibility in the outfield, allowing us to deploy Ohtani for the first time. He responded with a homer and three RBI in half a week. Jarred Kelenic homered and stole a base, but did so while batting just .107. Villar hit .375 with a homer and a steal and continues to produce. Justin Upton smacked a pair of home runs. Willie Calhoun had another rough week on the bench, while Willi Castro homered and drove in seven on the bench -- showing just enough to keep the faith.
(42.1 IP) 1 W / 36 K / 0 SV / 4.89 ERA / 1.25 WHIP
Pace: +4 W / +23.5 K / +7 SV / +1.05 / +0.26
Ugh. Just when you think that you really have something with your pitching staff, a brutal week like this brings you right back down to earth. Our second lowest innings total of the season, and along with it just pure garbage across the board. FAAB addition Corbin Martin -- who had been scheduled for two starts -- gave up six runs in four innings then was demoted before his Sunday start. Robbie Ray was hit hard in his start, Richard Rodriguez gave up three runs in three innings, Ian Kennedy didn’t pitch. Spencer Howard pitched well, but only went four frames. The lone victory came from Kershaw who struck out 12 in his double starts.
FAAB: Looking at the roster now, it looks like Calhoun and Gimenez should be easy drops. Not only is Gimenez toiling at Triple-A, he’s struggling badly there and it doesn’t appear he’ll return any time soon. Corbin Martin can be chalked up as a complete disaster and should be axed immediately. Castro probably showed enough this week to hold his spot for now. We spent so much FAAB on Danny Santana it would be hard to cut bait after just one bad week, but it should probably be considered.
We wind up making just one move this week -- though it was a big one -- adding German Marquez ($113 to $47) with Martin as the drop. We did make a few other sizeable bids this week on Alek Manoah and Ty France, falling way short on Manoah and finishing as the runner-up on France.
Interesting bids this week were: Manoah ($314), France ($137), Justus Sheffield ($80), India ($9).
Period 10
(325 AB) .255 AVG / 49 R / 11 HR / 35 RBI / 9 SB
New Weekly Targets: .258 AVG / 40.24 R / 11.53 HR / 38.82 RBI / 4.94 SB
New Pace: -.003 / +23.8 R / -4.5 HR / -18.8 RBI / +4 SB
We’re now a little over two full months into the season, which is when I made the change to focus on the actual top 20% in each category, rather than the preseason projections. As you can see, it made a major change on both sides, lowering the offensive projections (except for SB) and increasing what was needed on the pitching side. The most dramatic changes were in ratios. At this point in the season, this team ranks 12th overall in the Main Event Standings out of 645 teams.
We hit our highest at-bat total of the year and set a new high for stolen bases as well. The runs totals look great, but even with the new target we’re still a bit behind in power. Jose Altuve had a monster week, hitting .333 with three homers, six RBI, seven runs and a stolen base. Niko Goodrum and Arozarena each stole two bases, but didn’t do much else. Ke’Bryan Hayes finally returned over the weekend with a homer and three RBI. Tyler O’Neill and Amed Rosario each hit over .300 with a pair of homers and a stolen base. Justin Upton hit .455 with two bombs and six RBI in half a week. Jarred Kelenic went hitless and looks lost at the plate. Danny Santana played the first half of the week, going an empty 1-for-12, before hitting the IL.
(53.2 IP) 3 W / 65 K / 3 SV / 3.69 ERA / 1.06 WHIP
New Weekly Targets: 3.76 W / 56.9 K / 3.65 SV / 3.246 ERA / 1.103 WHIP
New Pace: -0.76 W / +11 K / -3.64 SV / +0.22 / +0.14
Just a solid pitching week across the board. The ERA is a touch high, and we’re now chasing a small number in saves and wins against the new pace, but we’ll live with this every week. We rolled the dice with Ohtani as a pitcher this week as he was lined up for two starts, he only wound up going once, but he did win and strike out 10 in that start (though he also homered and stole a base). German Marquez burst onto the scene with a terrific double, posting a 1.38 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 13 Ks in 13 innings while earning a win. Robbie Ray struck out nine and allowed just one run while nabbing a victory. Domingo German pitched very well in two starts, but came away empty-handed. Each of the three closers recorded one save. Luis Castillo showed signs of life on the bench, allowing one run over six innings and earning a win.
FAAB: For the love of God, please get rid of Andres Gimenez and Danny Santana. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Willie Calhoun go either if there’s a viable upgrade. Spencer Howard looks like an easy drop as well.
Just one addition again this week, and it’s on the pitching side, grabbing Zac Plesac ($37 to $9) with Howard as the drop. Plesac was currently on the injured list but tentatively expected to return in 3-4 weeks. Given the overall quality and depth of the pitching staff, this type of risk made sense to me. What I’m again not understanding looking back on this is why Gimenez is still on the roster. I can somewhat understand giving Santana another week, as it was a minor injury and he’s expected back when first eligible.
Interesting additions for the week: Jo Adell ($44), Patrick Wisdom ($34), Kevin Pillar ($25), Carlos Carrasco ($9).
Period 11
(261 AB) .276 AVG / 54 R / 15 HR / 32 RBI / 4 SB
New Pace: -.001 / +37.53 R / -1.06 HR / -25.65 RBI / +3.1 SB
The at-bat number fell off a cliff, which is very discouraging, though we still performed well in runs and home runs. RBI are starting to look like a real problem. Gave some ground back in SB as well. Jeimer Candelario went on the injured list on Monday, which caused us to take a zero at 1B for the first half of the week. Anytime you have to take a zero in your lineup it’s a crushing blow. Santana returned over the weekend to fill that spot, but went hitless in only five at-bats. Arozarena hit .375 with a homer, seven RBI and a swipe. Villar hit .313 with a homer and a stolen base. Jose Altuve hit just .185, but swatted three solo homers. Tyler O’Neill again homered twice. Amed Rosario hit .500, scored six times and stole a base. Andrew Benintendi and Mitch Haniger each left the yard twice. Willi Casto hit an empty .118 for the week. Jarred Kelenic was demoted back to Triple-A.
(40.0 IP) 3 W / 57 K / 0 SV / 6.08 ERA / 1.45 WHIP
New Pace: -1.5 W / +11 K / -7.29 SV / +0.11 / +0.13
Just a brutal week for pitching. We have started three closers the entire year, and getting weeks with zero saves while running only six starters are crushing. We’re now over seven saves off the pace despite three closers. We also gave back a lot of the cushion that we had in ratios. Cole, Kershaw and Ray (in double starts) all pitched very well and each earned a win. Ohtani pitched well and fanned eight, but did not win (he homered and stole a base again on offense). Marquez and German each got clobbered. Chapman gave up four runs in 1/3 of an inning. Kennedy didn’t pitch. Castillo pitched decently on the bench.
FAAB: Alright, we’re bleeding at-bats now. We’re now carrying two empty spots on the bench on offense with Kelenic demoted. It’s time to make some changes. We should be done holding Gimenez, Santana should be dropped, Calhoun is a somewhat functional extra outfielder, but we should be on the lookout for an upgrade. At this point, the same goes for Willi Castro. Niko Goodrum is hanging around to chip in speed when needed, but isn’t doing anything else. He could be cut as well. We’re also holding a zero on the pitching side in Plesac, so if we want to move Ohtani over to offense we’ll have to add another arm, or trust Castillo again.
It wasn’t the wholesale changes that I was hoping for, but we did make two moves, adding Daniel Vogelbach ($13 unopposed) and Albert Pujols ($6 to $3) with Gimenez and Santana as the drops. With Candelario’s status up in the air, that at least gave us coverage at 1B and CI for the upcoming week while cutting some dead weight.
Interesting adds from around the league were Jake Fraley ($77), Bobby Bradley ($31), Sammy Long ($25), Vladimir Gutierrez ($9), LaMonte Wade Jr. ($9).
Period 12
(331 AB) .254 AVG / 45 R / 12 HR / 40 RBI / 6 SB
New Pace: -.001 / +42.3 R / -0.6 HR / -24.47 RBI / +4.2 SB
It wasn’t the strongest overall week on offense, but by hitting a season-high in at-bats we bludgeoned our way to just hitting each of the offensive targets. Jose Altuve led the way, hitting .375 with four homers, eight runs scored and nine RBI. Arozarena homered twice and stole a base. Willi Castro (knowing he was on thin ice) blasted a pair of homers and stole a base, but did so while hitting .208. Niko Goodrum homered and swiped a bag in half a week. Jeimer Candelario returned to action, while FAAB pickup Daniel Vogelbach crushed a homer. Andrew Benintendi went on the IL on Monday. Shohei Ohtani went absolutely nuclear -- while we used him as a pitcher -- crushing six home runs with nine RBI and a stolen base. Ugh.
(54.1 IP) 3 W / 53 K / 5 SV / 2.48 ERA / 1.21 WHIP
New Pace: -2.3 W / +7.1 K / -5.9 SV / +0.15 / +0.11
Thankfully the pitching bounced back in a big way this week. Once again, Ohtani was scheduled to start twice, so we rolled the dice there instead of using him as a hitter. And once again, one of his starts got pushed back taking the double away. He did pitch well and win his lone start, but as you saw above, he crushed six homers with nine RBI and a swipe that would have been immensely helpful to the offense. He’s probably locked in as a hitter going forward (and should have been weeks ago). German Marquez rebounded with six shutout innings and a win. Gerrit Cole also earned a victory. Luis Castillo dominated in double starts, posting a 1.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 14 Ks, though he didn’t win. Four of the five saves came from Aroldis Chapman with Rich Rodriguez nabbing the other.
FAAB: If we’re going to keep Ohtani as a hitter going forward, then we’ll need to add another starting pitcher to the stable. Benintendi has shown enough that we would like to hold him through the injury, which makes things tight since we’re already carrying Plesac and Kelenic. That means Pujols is an easy drop while Calhoun and Goodrum are expendable if upgrades are available.
We wound up making two additions this week -- both starting pitchers -- though one of them was yet another stash. Carlos Carrasco ($28 unopposed) and Brett Anderson ($2 unopposed) with Pujols and Goodrum as the drops. Anderson was scheduled to start twice the following week, which makes sense if we needed someone to throw while shifting Ohtani back to utility. Carrasco is intriguing in a vacuum, but he’s still several weeks away and we’re already holding zeroes in Kelenic and Plesac, plus Benintendi on the IL.
Interesting adds around the league: Jameson Taillon ($62), Abraham Toro ($17), Nicky Lopez ($14), Jesus Sanchez ($12), Daulton Varsho ($9).
Period 13
(236 AB) .280 AVG / 40 R / 7 HR / 29 RBI / 4 SB
New Pace: +.001 / +42.1 R / -5.1 HR / -34.3 RBI / +3.2 SB
This one is entirely on me and can be chalked up to poor management, plain and simple. Carrying too many zeroes and stashes and trusting a short bench backfired in a big way, leading to a pitiful at-bat total of 236 and minimal production to go along with it. Vogelbach went on the IL during the first half of the week after only six at-bats. Jonathan Villar got hurt, and we had no replacement available as he totaled just four at-bats for the week. The Willi(e)'s -- Calhoun and Castro -- each were forced to play all week, but each had only 15 at-bats. Ohtani carried the offense, hitting .353 with two homers, five RBI and a swipe. Ke’Bryan Hayes hit .400 with five runs, four RBI and a stolen base. Christian Vazquez had a jack and a bag as well. Justin Upton suffered an injury, totaling just two at-bats on the bench.
(54.1 IP) 5 W / 60 K / 3 SV / 2.98 ERA / 0.98 WHIP
New Pace: -1 W / +10.2 K / -6.5 SV / +0.19 / +0.12
At least we were able to pitch well this week, because a disaster on both ends would have been unbearable. Clayton Kershaw led the way, striking out 20 over 14 innings in his stellar two starts, earning a win in the process. Marquez, Robbie Ray and Castillo each had dominant starts and earned victories. Aroldis Chapman was hit hard again, but earned a win in relief. Rodriguez tallied two saves with Kennedy nabbing one. Cole struck out 12 in middling two starts without a win. FAAB addition Brett Anderson got hurt in the second inning of his first start and went to the IL. Domingo German pitched poorly on the bench.
FAAB: Well Brett Anderson certainly is a must-drop, as we’ll likely need a pitcher to use for the upcoming week. At this point we need healthy hitters getting everyday at-bats. Vogelbach should go, Upton should probably go, can’t really afford to keep Villar if he’s going to be out for a while. Calhoun is playing, but we could certainly stand an upgrade there. Same with Willi Castro.
We were active in shopping the bargain bin this week, making three additions -- Jake Bauers ($8 unopposed), Harrison Bader ($6 unopposed) and Miguel Cabrera ($2 unopposed) with Calhoun, Anderson and Vogelbach as the drops.
Interesting adds around the league: Nico Hoerner ($53), Cal Quantrill ($34), Garrett Cooper ($26), Eric Lauer ($16). This could just be the hindsight talking here, but Quantrill looks like a missed opportunity. He was poised to step into a role in the Indians rotation, and I certainly had a need for another starting pitcher at this point, as I was relying on every healthy body that I had while waiting on Plesac and/or Carrasco to return. Not sure I would have bid enough if looking there, but I probably should have been in the market.
Period 14
(290 AB) .238 AVG / 46 R / 14 HR / 43 RBI / 7 SB
New Pace: -.001 / +47.8 R / -2.6 HR / -30.1 RBI / +5.2 SB
You see what juicing that at-bat total back up does? Even with a poor week in batting average, we get to every other offensive target. This time, we captured the monster week from Ohtani, as he clobbered six homers with eight runs scored, eight RBI and a stolen base. Miguel Cabrera jumped into action by hitting .348 with a pair of homers and six runs scored. Harrison Bader did the same, with two homers, six RBI and a swipe over the weekend. J.D. Martinez homered twice, scored six and drove in nine runs. Tyler O’Neill hit .444 with five runs and a swipe. Ke’Bryan Hayes stole a base, but went just 1-for-22 (.045). Altuve hit .190, but homered, drove in six and stole two bases. Willi Castro totaled just 13 at-bats for the week at MI. Villar and Benintendi each returned from the IL on Sunday.
(49.0 IP) 2 W / 50 K / 2 SV / 5.88 ERA / 1.29 WHIP
New Pace: -2.8 W / +3.3 K / -8.2 SV / +0.02 / +0.10
Certainly not what you’re looking for from the pitching side, as our entire surplus in ERA was gobbled up here. German Marquez continued to do his thing, posting a 1.20 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 16 Ks and a win in 15 innings. Robbie Ray also tallied 16 K’s and a win in his double starts. Aroldis Chapman gave up seven runs while recording only one out and could be on the outs of that closer’s job. Gerrit Cole doesn’t look to be the same guy sans sticky stuff, and he’s knocked around again. Domingo German was hit hard and lasted just three innings in his start. Kennedy and Rodriguez each picked up a save.
FAAB: Absolutely need another starting pitcher, and it looks like Domingo German has possibly worn out his welcome. Still carrying zeroes from Plesac and Carrasco in the hopes that they’ll pay off big later. Still carrying the Kelenic zero on offense, and now another with Upton on the IL. One of them probably needs to go. It’s time to upgrade Willi Castro. Though it has been time at least six other occasions this season. Jake Bauers struggled in his first week on the squad, though the 1B/OF eligibility is nice and he’s playing pretty regularly for the M’s. He’s on the fence. Same goes for Cabrera, who hit well in his first week with us, but is also expendable with Villar and Benintendi returning. Also, and perhaps most importantly, Aroldis Chapman looks cooked. We obviously can’t drop him just yet, but it’s hard to throw him out there next week. Combine that with the fact that we expect Kennedy and Rodriguez to be dealt before the trade deadline, and we could very easily go from three closers to none very quickly. Need to start speculating on saves.
We went out and made two additions this week -- both speculating on saves -- in Ranger Suarez ($17 to $8) and Anthony Bender ($11 to $4) with Bauers and Cabrera as the drops. Castro survives the purge yet again. Suarez had held a 0.85 ERA, 0.69 WHIP and 29/8 K/BB ratio over 31 2/3 innings for the Phillies and picked up his first save with a perfect ninth inning against the Padres on Saturday, the day before FAAB. With the Phillies bullpen in flux, it seemed like a good place to speculate. Bender had also been dominating for the Marlins and seemed like he could be the next in line should Yimi Garcia get dealt at the deadline.
Interesting adds from around the league: Heath Hembree ($48), Scott Barlow ($48), Tylor Megill ($33), Chad Green ($8), Patrick Wisdom ($7), Logan Webb ($1). That’s right. Logan Webb, for $1, unopposed. Chalk that up as another missed opportunity, especially since I even just told myself that I should have been looking for a starting pitcher here. No guarantee I would have wound up on Webb, but yikes.
Period 15
(275 AB) .244 AVG / 39 R / 14 HR / 41 RBI / 2 SB
New Pace: -.002 / +46.6 R / -0.2 HR / -27.9 RBI / +2.3 SB
Kind of a meh week overall on offense, though the lack of stolen bases really dug into our surplus there. Buster Posey went on the injured list on Monday, forcing us to take a zero for the week. Very few teams carry a third catcher to cover for a mid-week injury, and if you’re going to lose at-bats somewhere, that’s not a terrible place to do it. Jonathan Villar went 3-for-18 (.167) in his return to the lineup, but it was with three solo homers. Ohtani, Benintendi, Haniger and Altuve each homered twice, with Altuve driving in eight runs. O’Neill and Rosario supplied the stolen bases. Willi Castro gave 16 empty at-bats of .125 average. J.D. Martinez homered and drove in six.
(48.2 IP) 4 W / 58 K / 3 SV / 1.29 ERA / 0.72 WHIP
New Pace: -2.6 W / +4.3 K / -8.9 SV / +0.16 / +0.13
On the surface, it certainly looks as though the pitching fired on all cylinders this week and is in a great position overall heading into the All-Star break, but that wasn’t quite the case. Clayton Kershaw was scratched from his start with an arm issue, forcing us to take a zero for the week. Aroldis Chapman continued to struggle, though at least it was on the bench. Domingo German delivered another poor start, though he did strike out seven. Now, onto the good. Ranger Suarez picked up a save and looks to have secured the closer’s gig in Philadelphia. Kennedy and Rodriguez each tallied one as well. German Marquez with another gem, nine K’s over seven scoreless to earn a win. Gerrit Cole struck out 12 in a complete game shutout. Robbie Ray fanned 11 over seven scoreless to earn a win. Luis Castillo pitched very well over his two starts, but came up empty-handed again.
FAAB: Heading into the All-Star break, let’s take a real hard look at where this roster is at and what it’s lacking. On offense, we’re way ahead of the pace in runs scored, but way behind in RBI. We should start to try to balance that out where we can. On the pitching side, we still have a big deficit in saves, and we’re likely to lose a couple of closers. We feel like maybe we just gained one or two though in Suarez and Bender, but there’s still reason to speculate if we see anything appealing. For the love of God, let’s upgrade Willi Castro if we can. Also, Upton is tentatively expected back next week, giving us a surplus of outfielders. One should probably go. Can we please upgrade Domingo German if we can? Posey is expected back right after the break, so there’s probably no reason to add another catcher.
We wind up making two additions this week -- Rodalfo Castro ($2 unopposed) and Mike Moustakas ($6 unopposed). The drops were Willi Castro finally and Harrison Bader. Bader had performed well, but Upton offered more power potential, so I can understand why I stuck with him there given how we were tracking against our targets. Moustakas was yet another stash, as he was currently on the injured list but expected back in a couple of weeks. He made sense as a target to make up that deficit in home runs -- especially at a middle infield position.
Interesting adds around the league: Vidal Brujan ($219), Triston McKenzie ($57), Bobby Dalbec ($37), Huascar Ynoa ($19), Austin Nola ($5), Elias Diaz ($2).
This takes us through the All-Star break, so Part Two of this review will include in-season analysis from the second half of the season as well as final standings and takeaways. Stay tuned.
