Welcome to the returning weekly column Dynasty Dispatch. This will be my new weekly column on NBC Sports EDGE. D.J. Short began this column this spring but he has passed the keys on to me. My goal of this column will be to bring some dynasty love to the site. While I love re-draft leagues, dynasty leagues are my favorite leagues to play in. In my opinion, there is more strategy to building your championship contender.
In an ideal world, you want to be the Los Angeles Dodgers of your league. Always in the hunt for the title but also enough depth to move for that win-now player at the deadline. Sadly, we cannot all be the Dodgers. There might be times where you know that you have no shot at the title but have some older players to trade away to reload for next year, this year’s San Francisco Giants for example. Other times, you need to tear it to the studs in a massive rebuild. I’m looking at you Oakland.
All of these avenues. All of these choices. It reminds me of those choose your own adventure Goosebumps books I read growing up. Every time you picked the book up, the story ended differently.
While I’m not sure what this column will ultimately become, I’m glad you are joining me on the ride. The plan, for now, is to bring some different topics weekly and hope to add a mailbag post sometime before the end of the season. Now that I have properly introduced myself, let’s get onto the topic at hand: midseason risers and fallers. We recently returned from the All-Star Break and I thought it would be a good idea to take a look around at players who have ascended in the ranks or fallen to the lowest of lows. While every league is different, I’m will try to be as broad as I can be.
Fantasy Risers
Julio Rodríguez, OF, Mariners
It seems strange to have the top prospect entering the 2022 season on this list but here we are. I always believed in Rodríguez’s bat, but where did his stolen bases come from? Rodríguez swiped 21 bags over 304 plate appearances between High-A and Double-A last year. How many does he have now? The same 21 stolen bases. Maybe we should have seen this coming? Looking at him (6'4”, 228 lbs.) you would not think he was that fast but he is in the 97th percentile in sprint speed. Sprinkle in 115 MPH max exit velocity with an infectious love of the game, Julio is legit and is in my personal top ten dynasty players.
Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves
We are seeing what made Dansby Swanson a first overall pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015. As of this article, he is hitting .293/.351/.473 with 15 homers and 14 stolen bases and is having a breakout campaign. If I would have told you prior to the season that Swanson would go 20/20 this year, you would have called me crazy. He has moved up in the lineup, some of that due to the Ozzie Albies injury but his production is keeping him there for the defending World Series champions. But should you buy in? Can we believe in this? I think so because what changes he made this season, as reported by Maria Torres of The Athletic.. Swanson was in a major slump to begin this year but after seeing video of his swing, made a tangible change and has not looked back. He also seems to be a smarter thief. He has a 82% success rate (14/18 SB/attempts) but his sprint speed has remained the same. While sprint speed isn’t everything, seeing that he is more confident in himself makes me think double digit steals could stick around.
Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles
There hasn’t been a prospect that has moved up my board more than Gunnar Henderson. Henderson was drafted in the second round of the 2019 draft and only played in 29 games professionally before COVID-19 eliminated the 2020 minor league season. The Orioles have been extremely aggressive with his assignments and he has not fallen on his face. He started the 2022 season in Double-A where he slashed .312/.452/.573 with eight homers and 12 stolen bases across 208 plate appearances. He was promoted to Triple-A at the beginning of June and hasn’t missed a beat. He is hitting .268/.386/.496 across 153 plate appearances for Triple-A Norfolk and there is a no-zero chance we see him in the majors this year. Scouts think that he has the chops to stick at shortstop but the Orioles have split his time between short and the hot corner. Even so, Henderson skyrocketed up my personal dynasty list with this season.
Fantasy Fallers
Ian Anderson, SP, Braves
Danger Will Robinson! After having a breakout campaign in the shortened 2020 season, Anderson has fell precipitously down my ranks. Now, I am not even sure he will remain in Atlanta’s starting rotation. In 2020 he had a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 30% strikeout rate and was dominate in the postseason. As of this article, the right-hander has a 5.31 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 19% strikeout rate. Coming up through Atlanta’s system, Anderson’s biggest bug-a-boo was his lack of command. We are still seeing that but we are seeing everything back up. Taking a peek at Eno Sarris’ Pitching+ model, Anderson has a 80 Pitching+ rating. Keep in mind that an average starter is slightly below a 100 rating, due to filthy relief pitchers being ranked. Atlanta has been known to get the most out of their pitchers so maybe Anderson comes back next year as a different guy but I’d move on if I could.
Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals
While Carlson is having one his better seasons offensively, I’m a bit concerned. To date, the 23-year-old is hitting .256/.327/.410 with five homers and four steals across 306 plate appearances. While that won’t sink your team, there is not a lot of there there. Maybe I was fooled by the 2019 season where he smacked 26 homers and stole 20 bags between Double-A and Triple-A but only five home runs and four steals at the All-Star Break? C’mon man. Taking a deeper dive into the batted ball data, I’m doubtful we will see that level of power production from him. He barrels the ball 5% of the time and the major league average is sitting at 7.5%. He needs to get his barrel rate up if he wants to put more balls over the fence in Busch Stadium. While he is 4/4 on stolen base attempts, his 73 percentile sprint speed and lack of urgency has me wondering if he will ever have to double digit season.
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners
Speaking of being concerned, Kelenic is on a different tier than Carlson. The collective baseball world thought the young outfielder should have made the opening day roster prior to the 2021 season. The Mariners had a hole to fill and the then 22-year-old had spent most of the summer with the team since the minor league season was cancelled because of the COVID pandemic. Once he got the call in May, things have not gone well. In his initial call up, Kelenic .096/.185/.193 across 92 plate appearances and showed he was in his own head. He returned in July and while his back of the baseball card stats improved, he was still striking out too much. This year for Triple-A Tacoma, the 23-year-old is slashing .292/.354/.565 with 11 homers across 229 plate appearances but the same problem remains…too many strikeouts. The power upside is still there but I am afraid those strikeouts will be a part of his game for the long-term and we will never see that season of more than 30 homers.
