Even though most teams have only played three games since we last convened, the pace of home runs has increased yet again. After hitting 134 home runs over the break-shortened week, the leaguewide pace is up to 6,679 home runs.
I recently investigated the upper minors for potential pitching reinforcements for a different article. The ranks aren’t just thin – they’re very nearly empty. Major league pitchers will continue to flock to the injured list. Meanwhile, there simply aren’t quality replacements available. For instance, in all of Triple-A, only eight qualified pitchers have below a 4.00 ERA. What’s worse, ERA estimators like FIP expect most of those top eight to regress. In a bad way. Unsurprisingly, the current wave of pitching call ups has mostly come from Double- and Single-A.
[[ad:athena]]
What does this mean for home runs? Well, it should be obvious – hitters are going to continue launching baseballs at an unprecedented rate.
Shall we dive right in?
Editor’s Note: Stay ahead of the competition from wire to wire with rankings, customizable projections, trade evaluator, exclusive columns and more in our Season Pass. And start using optimized with our DFS Toolkit!
Weekly Leaders
Mike Trout, 3 HR
Ramon Laureano, 3 HR
Josh Donaldson, 3 HR
Yuli Gurriel, 3 HR
Jay Bruce, 3 HR
Despite a week foreshortened by the All Star Break, five players managed to reach the three homer plateau in as many games. This shouldn’t actually come as a shock. Throughout the season, the weekly home run leaders frequently do their damage in brief bursts.
Trout and Gurriel are on particularly robust hot streaks. Going back to the previous week, Trout has hammered seven home runs in his last six games. Nothing surprising there. He’s Mike Trout. The bigger shock is Gurriel. Since June 23, he’s hit 10 home runs – that’s two-thirds of his power output for the season in just over 15 percent of his plate appearances. Usually a ground ball hitter, Gurriel is suddenly lofting the ball at a career-high rate. It’s worth noting that he’s gone on torrid streaks in the past – probably spurred by minor adjustments in mechanics or approach. Pitchers will eventually counter-adjust.
Laureano’s inclusion here is a welcome sign. The gifted defender had a slow start to the season. Since mid-May, he’s hitting .307/.347/.591 with 12 home runs and seven stolen bases in 193 plate appearances. He’s a solid across-the-board contributor. Donaldson has now reached the 20 home run plateau without much fanfare. The Braves gambled on a healthy season from the third baseman. While he hasn’t performed at his peak level, he’s still provided a valuable mid-lineup presence.
Bruce remains a home run or bust hitter. Over half of his contact is a fly ball – he’s basically a more aggressive, less powerful Joey Gallo. There are cracks in the façade – his career is likely teetering on the brink. Worsening plate discipline and increasing swinging strike rates usually portend the end for players over the age of 30. Still, he’s managed 24 home runs to date and is within reach of a career-best home run total.
My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders
Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers: 31 HR, 53 HR projected
Pete Alonso, New York Mets: 30 HR, 51 HR projected
Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers: 30 HR, 51 HR projected
Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres: 27 HR, 49 HR projected
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 29 HR, 47 HR projected
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers: 21 HR, 45 HR projected
Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates: 27 HR, 44 HR projected
Mike Moustakas, Milwaukee Brewers: 25 HR, 43 HR projected
Franmil Reyes, San Diego Padres: 25 HR, 43 HR projected
Jay Bruce, Philadelphia Phillies: 24 HR, 43 HR projected
The above projections are the result of a home-brewed projection system specifically designed to predict home run totals. This week, I finally implemented an adjustment to home run per fly ball rate (HR/FB) projections to account for the juiced baseball. Previously, I had not accounted for the new baseball.
My adjustments are most clearly seen in the projections for Yelich, Alonso, Bellinger, Moustakas, and Bruce. At the top end of the scale, the most elite sluggers were simply breaking the system. An external explanation was required to model their historic home run paces. Yelich has the seventh highest HR/FB rate over the last 100 years (minimum 350 plate appearances). Alonso ranks 11th while Bell and Bellinger are merely 39th and 40th all time. Gallo would rank first on the list if he had another 81 plate appearances. A perusal of the list reveals it’s extremely heavily populated by sluggers of the last half decade. A full 24 of the top 50 HR/FB seasons have occurred since 2015.
Injured
***C.J. Cron, Minnesota Twins (shoulder inflammation, late-July return)
Tommy La Stella, Los Angeles Angels (right tibia fracture, September return)
Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics (right knee sprain, late-July return)
David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks (shoulder inflammation, mid-July return)
Ji-Man Choi, Tampa Bay Rays (left ankle sprain, mid-July return)
Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays (shin contusion, mid-July return)
Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals (finger fracture, unknown return)
Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates (shoulder inflammation, early-July return)
Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins (ankle sprain, mid-July return)
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox (high ankle sprain, early-August return)
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (PCL knee strain, mid-August return)
Hunter Pence, Texas Rangers (right groin strain, mid-July return)
Jedd Gyorko, St. Louis Cardinals (wrist injury while rehabbing, unknown return)
Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners (ruptured testicle, late-July return)
Kendrys Morales, New York Yankees (calf strain, return unknown)
Andrew McCutchen, Philadelphia Phillies (torn ACL, out for season)
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros (fractured rib, mid-July return)
Ryon Healy, Seattle Mariners (lower back inflammation, late-July)
Mitch Moreland, Boston Red Sox (quad strain, mid-July return)
Miguel Andujar, New York Yankees (labrum team, out for season)
Greg Bird, New York Yankees (left plantar fascia tear, mid-July return)
Steven Souza Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks (multiple knee ligament tears - out for season)
Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets (broken ankles, out for season)
Mark Trumbo, Baltimore Orioles (knee surgery with June setback, mid-July return)
*** denotes new injury
The Dodgers welcomed back a couple cornerstones on Friday. With Corey Seager and A.J. Pollock back in the fold, the Los Angeles roster crunch is sure to create some last-minute lineup confusion. Luke Voit is in the lineup for the Yankees today. He missed only a minimal amount of time for his abdominal strain. Matt Carpenter also only needed a short stint on the sidelines to nurse his sore back.
Peralta is expected to return on Sunday. Polanco has been ready to be activated for close to a week. The Pirates have shown a pattern of sending their players on long rehab stints. Pence, Moreland, Choi, and Lowe will also be back any day now.
Cron is the only player to be added to the injured list in the last week. That happened shortly after the previous Homer Report was sent to the presses. It’s possible he’ll also return after a minimal 10-day stay on the shelf.
Power Spotlight
If you’re in need of a power infusion, the safest choices are always going to be expensive. Good luck prying away a guy like Gallo, Alonso, or Bell. You’d need to be preying upon a truly hapless owner or else overpaying for the privilege. Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes might be more affordable solutions, but they’ll still cost an arm and a leg in most leagues. There’s one power hitter who has a premium rest-of-season projection and might actually be easy to acquire – Miguel Sano.
The Twins third baseman has rebounded from an appalling power outage in 2018. His plate discipline and batted ball profiles are something like a budget Gallo with fewer fly balls. Thus, it was concerning to witness his 2018 campaign in which he struggled to supply his characteristically elite HR/FB ratio. He’s rebounded in 2019. Lately, he’s been particularly locked in, having hit six home runs, three doubles, and a triple over his last 65 plate appearances.
Per my above methodology, Sano projects to hit 19 home runs over the rest of the season. That’s seventh-best in the league, behind some guys named Gallo, Yelich, Renfroe, Alonso, Bellinger, and J.D. Martinez. You could plausibly offer power-lite players like Adam Eaton or Jeff McNeil in a one-for-one trade proposal – thus upgrading your expected end of season total by over 10 home runs.
