In this week’s “By The Numbers” breakdown, the analysis will focus on elite starting pitching parameters from last season. The goal will be to identify players that have shown the ability to generate whiffs while limiting contact within the strike zone. This is a lethal combination that all but guarantees positive results over time.
The advanced metrics we will be measuring will be O-Swing%, Z-Contact%, SwStr% (swinging strike percentage), and K-BB%. Below is a brief explanation of each statistic:
- O-Swing%: Swings at pitches outside of the zone divided by pitches out of the zone
- Z-Contact%: Contact made on pitches within the zone divided by swings within the zone
- SwStr%: Swings and misses divided by total pitches
- K-BB%: Strikeout rate minus walk rate
The parameters for O-Swing%, Z-Contact%, and SwStr% will be cut off at the league average for each measurement. This is to say that every pitcher on the list will carry an above-average rate in every statistic. Below are the league average rates for each metric:
- O-Swing: 31.3%
- Z-Contact: 84.6%
- SwStr: 11.2%
The list will be further narrowed down by only including starting pitchers to post a K-BB rate of at least 16 percent (league average is 14.5 percent), so that you can be certain that every player on this list is well-deserving of your attention.
2021 Starting Pitcher Standouts
Below is a chart that showcases starting pitchers that have hit all of the parameters listed above during the 2021 season:
There are 37 names that made the cut, including many of the usual suspects you would expect to see. In fact, 24 of the 37 starting pitchers who qualified are currently being drafted in the top-150 picks in fantasy drafts. There are also several names that stand out, including perennial underachiever Andrew Heaney, bounce-back candidate Chris Paddack, and Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy.
What if we made this list just a bit tougher though. How about we limit the parameters to starting pitchers who were able to also limit opposing batters to a less than eight percent barrel rate, in addition to hitting our plate discipline goals. What will remain is a group of pitchers that generate swings & misses both in and out of the zone, limit contact within the zone, and are difficult to square up.
The new criteria changed the list of qualified pitchers from a group of 37 to just 24. This time 18 of the 24 starters left are being drafted within the top-150 picks in fantasy drafts, leaving six outliers (minus Kenta Maeda and Domingo German who are injured). Those seem like names worth exploring, wouldn’t you say?
2021 Parameter Outliers
Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants
2021 Stat Line: 93 1/3 IP, 8-3, 3.76 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 24.9% K rate, 1.26 WHIP
Current ADP: 237
Remember Alex Cobb? The 34-year-old has been around for years and was once considered a potential ace for the Rays early in his career. Between 2011-2014 Cobb posted a 3.27 ERA in Tampa over nearly 500 innings and still ranks as fifth all-time on the Rays wins list with 48. Unfortunately, in 2015 the right-hander was diagnosed with a partial tear of his UCL and had to undergo Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss nearly two full seasons.
Cobb was able to bounce back in 2017, posting a 3.66 ERA over 177 frames, but he was no longer the same pitcher. The right-hander abandoned his four-seam fastball in lieu of his sinker, which he tossed over 50 percent of the time and increased the usage of his curveball. The performance was enough to entice the Orioles into signing Cobb that offseason to a four-year $57 million contract. As you already know, this did not turn out the way Baltimore was hoping for.
Injuries held Cobb back for the next several years between hip surgery, groin strains, lumbar issues, and blisters. Even when on the mound the right-hander was not effective, developing a serious home run problem over 217 innings with the Orioles. The veteran carried an abysmal 6.71 ERA over three seasons with a 6.1 K/9.
The good news for Cobb, which would turn out to be a possible career-saving turning point, is that Baltimore traded him to the Angels before spring training in 2021. The move would result in career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.9%), chase rate (34.6%), in-zone contact (84.2%), and swinging-strike rate (11.2%). Cobb would also lower his barrel rate against from 28 percent in 2020 to just 4.2 percent.
So what changed? For starters, Cobb had a vastly superior sinker last season compared to 2020. The pitch improved from a positive five Run Value on Baseball Savant to a neutral zero. This metric measures the value of a pitch by digging into the variables that make it effective during different game situations (pitch count, outs, and balls in play). You think to yourself that a pitch with zero Run Value is not very impressive, but try to think of it as a net gain of five instead. After all, Cobb threw his sinker 42 percent of the time last season.
From 2020 to 2021 Cobb’s sinker gained an extra inch in vertical movement and almost an inch of horizontal break. The results led to a massive bump in strikeout percentage (11.3% to 26.1%) due to a 7.8 point gain in chase rate.
Cobb saw similar gains in pitch movement on his splitter, which gained an inch over vertical drop and over an inch or horizontal movement, while his curveball became a more of a north-to-south weapon with less lateral break. The veteran uses both of these offerings to generate ground balls, but both have plenty of swing and miss potential. The curveball alone saw a jump from 10 percent to 31.3 percent in O-Swing (swings generated outside of the zone).
This offseason Cobb signed a two-year $20 million contract with the Giants, who have a tremendous track record of fine-tuning a pitcher’s arsenal. It remains to be seen if San Francisco will be able to improve upon Cobb’s 2021 season considering most of his success comes from an already solid sinker/splitter combo. However, given his new home environment, there is at minimum a solid chance of a repeat performance from last season, which would be more than acceptable in fantasy leagues. The righty is coming from one of MLB’s worst defensive teams last season (Angels) as someone who relies on ground balls, so the upside in 2021 may result in a career-best season.
Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Stat Line: 87 IP, 3-6, 3.62 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 25.9% K rate, 1.21 WHIP
Current ADP: 195
Sandoval is a popular sleeper pick this offseason due to his jump in swinging-strike rate and standout performance versus the Twins on July 24th when he struck out 13 over 8 2/3 innings. Yet, the 25-year-old is barely being drafted within the top 200. Why is that?
A lack of track record is most likely the primary reason, but the southpaw has also yet to pitch an entire season in the majors. In fact, the 87 frames Sandoval tossed last year are a career-high in the majors with 121 1/3 being his high mark in the minor leagues. One more complication is that the left-hander had his season end early due to a back injury in August. However, the results are hard to ignore though with Sandoval posting a 3.39 ERA (3.63 FIP) and a 1.18 WHIP after being moved into the Angels rotation last season.
If Sandoval threw enough innings to qualify, he would have finished with the sixth-highest swinging strike rate among starting pitchers. Although, you may notice that the southpaw posted a similar overall strikeout percentage in 2019 as he did last season. This begs the question: “Why such a drastic difference in results?” The answer is command, location, and arsenal adjustment.
Sandoval threw his four-seam fastball nearly half as much last season in order to prioritize his changeup and add an entirely new sinker. The changeup itself is an amazing pitch with a negative seven Run Value, 51.4 percent Whiff rate, 42.4 percent strikeout rate, and an astounding 57.9 percent Z-Contact rate (contact within the strike zone). The contact rate is so low due to its 28.7 percent swinging-strike rate and 38.1 percent Zone rate. This low zone rate is perfectly acceptable because opposing batters have been eager to chase it out of the strike zone (41.5 percent O-Swing).
If you have a fantastic pitch, throw it more. This may seem like a simple concept, but it is one often ignored by many in order to have a more “traditional” pitch mix.
The newly added sinker certainly seemed to be a benefit overall, but the individual pitch metrics are somewhat pedestrian. A neutral Run Value, 6.5 percent swinging-strike rate, and 50 percent ground ball rate made the sinker a serviceable high-contact weapon designed to change eye level and generate ground outs. However, the offering did manage to produce a 16.5 percent whiff rate ‘in’ the zone, which was the sixth-best mark in baseball. This modest addition to Sandoval’s arsenal may have played a pivotal role in his improved performance against left-handed hitters.
Nicklaus Gaut did a great job of explaining how seam-shifted wake may have played a positive impact on how Sandoval attacked left-handed hitters. The spin-based movement versus observed movement deviates due to aerodynamic forces on the left-hander’s sinker and end up improving the effectiveness of both the four-seam fastball and sinking fastball, especially when properly tunneled. Look at the chart below and notice the orange (sinker) tabs.
The southpaw now has an effective weapon against left-handed hitters besides his devastating changeup. In fact, the 25-year-old posted an impressive 3.16 xFIP and 22.5 K-BB rate in 2021 against lefties. If this trend continues, the overhaul to Sandoval’s arsenal makes him a worthy candidate to repeat his performance or take a step forward this season.
Jordan Montgomery, New York Yankees
Stat Line: 157 1/3 IP, 6-7, 3.83 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 24.5% K rate, 1.28 WHIP
Current ADP: 195
If not for Tommy John surgery in 2018, Jordan Montgomery may be a star right now. The 29-year-old posted a promising 3.88 ERA over 155 1/3 innings as a rookie in 2017 but has pitched just 46 frames between 2019-2020 following his recovery. The southpaw did manage to carry a solid 3.82 xERA during the COVID shortened 2020 season, despite a 5.11 ERA, with a 19.7 K-BB rate. This window of daylight pushed Montgomery into being a fantasy sleeper heading into last year.
The right-hander started 2021 off slowly from a results standpoint, posting a 4.16 ERA during the first half. However, a 3.63 FIP and 24.5 percent strikeout rate were strong indicators for a solid second half and Montgomery did not disappoint with a 3.36 ERA, albeit with similar ERA estimators across the board.
Overall nothing much changed from a pitching metrics standpoint between 2020 and 2021. Chase rate, contact rates, and swinging strike rates are all very similar. The big difference was a drop in HR/9 from 1.43 to 1.09, and some regression in BABIP and the left-hander’s left-on-base rate. Due to these similarities, it stands to reason that Montgomery’s success has a slightly lengthier track record than some may realize.
In 2020 Montgomery had the most success while throwing his curveball (35.5% Whiff) and changeup (38.5% Whiff), while throwing a near even four-pitch split between his sinker, change, curve, and four-seam fastball. The Yankees left-hander made the decision to tweak this setup last season when he tapered off the usage of his sinker and four-seam fastball in exchange for heavier use of his curveball and cutter. This gave Montgomery a balanced five-pitch mix.
2000 vs 2021 Pitch Usage:
- Changeup: 25.6% vs 24.4%
- Curveball: 22.1% vs 23.7%
- Sinker: 26.6% vs 21.9%
- Four-Seam: 19% vs 16.2%
- Cutter: 6.7% vs 13.8%
Montgomery has a truly fantastic base to build an arsenal around when it comes to his changeup and curveball. Each offering generated a swinging strike rate above 20 percent while also carrying the highest chase rate in the left-hander’s arsenal.
The changeup had a Z-Contact percentage of just 67.3 while being thrown within the zone over 50 percent of the time.
Montgomery’s curveball generated a superb 41.2 percent O-Swing while still holding opposing hitters to a 77.2 percent in-zone contact rate (Z-Contact).
The cut fastball and the four-seam performed similarly in whiff rate, O-Swing%, and Z-Contact%, while the cutter performed slightly better as a swing and miss weapon. If a step forward is to come for Montgomery, this is where improvement can be made. The left-hander seemed to tinker with his overall fastball usage throughout the year, introducing his four-seam more and more into his game plan as the year progressed while throwing the sinker less.
If comparing each fastball in Run Value both the sinker and cutter come up as a positive five and six (this is not ideal), the four-seam fastball produced a negative one. The cutter sinks more than the sinker, the four-seam cuts more than the cutter, and the sinker barely moves at all. Montgomery may have been making the right decision to move away from the sinker and more towards the four-seam fastball as the season came to a close, but it is difficult to project how much of an impact that could make over a full season. The good news is that the southpaw is not set in his ways and seems very willing to build around his changeup and curveball while fine-tuning the rest of his arsenal.
Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants
Stat Line: 138 2/3 IP, 10-4, 3.83 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 26.0% K rate, 1.18 WHIP
Current ADP: 220
Alex Wood may not have turned in quite the performance that he did in 2017 when he carried a 2.72 ERA and 3.31 WHIP for the Dodgers, but there was plenty to get excited about. For starters, the 31-year-old posted the highest strikeout rate of his entire career at 26 percent, which led to a career-best 19.3 percent K-BB. This was accomplished by not only generating a 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate (11.6% in 2017), but a 19.7 percent called strike rate (18.6% in 2017).
The issue with called strike rates is that they rely on variables outside of the pitcher’s control, which makes them harder to predict from year to year. Not only do you require solid command from the pitcher, but you often need the assistance of an eager hitter, a catcher with adequate framing skill, and a friendly (enough) umpire.
Wood uses a three-pitch mix to succeed: sinker, slider, and changeup. The southpaw generated a whopping negative 13 Run Value on his sinker last year and posted the highest average velocity (91.8 mph) on the pitch since the 2017 season. The pitch is Wood’s bread and butter at 46.4 percent usage and he uses it to set up his other two offerings. Velocity can be the difference between night and day for a pitcher, so it’s likely not a coincidence that the left-hander had more success working with a bit more gas.
The shocking part of Wood’s sinker is the fact that it generated a meager 34 percent ground ball rate while being thrown in the zone 66.1 percent of the time. First, that is certainly not how a standard sinker tends to perform. Secondly, Wood posted a 50.8 percent ground ball rate last season. Would you have guessed, in a three-pitch mix, that the sinker actually held that number down? This is where those called strikes came into play, as the pitch earned a 27 percent called strike rate, which is incredible.
The changeup was the left-hander’s weakest offering, even though it used to be on his most effective pitches. In 2017, Wood’s offspeed would net a 42.1 percent O-Swing and a 15.2 percent swinging-strike rate compared to a 33.2 percent O-Swing and 9.5 percent swinging-strike rate last season. The pitch earned a plus-five Run Value and may be doing more harm than good at this point. This should lead to hesitation in hoping for a repeat or step forward, in 2021 due to the possibility that Wood may become a two-pitch pitcher.
The good news for anyone looking to invest in Alex Wood this season is the fact that his second pitch, the slider, is kind of amazing. At just under 84 miles per hour, the slider generated an absurd 21 percent swinging-strike rate and 44.3 percent O-Swing. The pitch was almost an automatic strike whenever thrown even though it was in the zone less than 50 percent of the time.
The southpaw is back in San Francisco this season and they are likely to get the very best out of Wood with their staff and in that ballpark. One thing the Giants seemed to change (for the better) was the release point for Wood’s arsenal. If you look at the chart below, you will notice an obvious trend and almost one-foot difference between the left-hander’s release point between 2017 and 2021.
The called strikes are a bit of a concern and there is a possibility that Alex Wood becomes a two-pitch pitcher, but San Francisco has a knack for getting the most out of their talent and I would expect the same in 2022. Just remember that the 31-year-old is not the beacon of health and is a good bet to miss some time during the 162-game season. A step forward may be a bit too much to ask, but a repeat season could be in the cards.
