Between January and the start of this truncated season, Padres reliever Kirby Yates was the second-rated closer on draft boards. Now he’s sidelined with bone chips in his elbow. In a more typical year, this would cost only about a quarter of the season. He’ll miss at least the next six weeks which would put a potential return during the playoffs. We got good news on the injury front too. Aroldis Chapman and Keone Kela are back. Encouragingly, they appear to be at full strength after recovering from COVID.
Over the last week, only Kenley Jansen recorded three saves. Eleven others notched a pair of saves. This will probably be the last week Zack Britton (8) tops the saves leaderboard. Liam Hendriks (7), Jansen (7), Archie Bradley (6), and Brad Hand (6) round out the top five.
Regular readers will notice I’ve shuffled the tiers, combining the first two while shifting the dividing line for the lower levels. This is meant to roughly reflect the “reliability” of the closers – not that relievers are ever more than a few bad pitches away from ruining a fantasy season. [[ad:athena]]
Closer Tiers
Tier 1: The Elite (5)
Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres
Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Liam Hendriks, Oakland Athletics
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Hader finally had an active week. He’s now faced 27 batters in 7.1 innings without allowing a hit.
Pomeranz has been used in 10 of the Padres 25 games. He’s allowed just one hit in nine innings. Don’t fret about his hold last night. He was called upon in a high leverage situation. With Yates out of the way, there’s no question Pomeranz is an elite closer. He sits 95-mph with a fastball that he uses up in the zone. He complements it with an effective curve ball. The delivery is similar to vintage Sean Doolittle but with a workable breaking ball added to the mix.
Chapman touched triple-digits in his 2020 debut. Although he allowed a run on a couple excuse-me hits, he looked like his old self. Strap in for hefty strikeout rates. Those in deeper leagues should keep tabs on Zack Britton – just in case.
Hendriks and Jansen are piling up saves while supplying healthy rate stats and strikeout totals. They were both slight discounts on draft day, and they’ve repaid their managers handsomely.
Tier 2: Possible Top Performers (6)
Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians
Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds
Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays
Seth Lugo, Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Taylor Rogers, Sergio Romo, Minnesota Twins
Brandon Workman, Boston Red Sox
Perceptions about Hand are mixed – after all, he’s allowed seven runs in 6.2 innings. Three of those runs are unearned. Aside from one disaster and an unusually high 5.40 walk rate, he seems to be pitching relatively well. The Indians have established a clear pattern of using James Karinchak before Brad Hand even when platoon considerations might suggest a different deployment. As such, I’m confident he’ll continue earning saves.
We still don’t know who the Mets prefer as their closer since they aren’t producing save opportunities. Diaz allowed a run on three hits last night. He also struck out the side. He now has a 2.89 ERA with 19.29 K/9. Lugo hasn’t been sharp in his last two outings.
Injuries to Oliver Drake and Jose Alvarado mean the Rays might have to be a little more traditional with their best relievers. Anderson is likely to see an uptick in save situations as a share of appearances. He’s every bit as talented as Hader and Pomeranz. Castillo is now in a position to nab a chunk of the leftover saves. If the matchups work out, Chaz Roe is also in the picture. If they can help it, he only pitches to right-handed batters.
Workman hasn’t appeared since last Friday when he allowed two runs on three hits and a walk. This is the first time in nearly a year his poor command came back to bite him. I’ve moved him back in the rankings due to his teammates. It’s hard to earn saves when your team has only one big league caliber starting pitcher.
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Tier 3: Ho Hum Vets (6)
Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies
Trevor Rosenthal, Kansas City Royals
Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
Alex Colome, Chicago White Sox
Daniel Hudson, Washington Nationals
Mark Melancon, Atlanta Braves
Last week, we discussed the weird circus outing that wrongly slung a couple earned runs on Neris’ record. He followed that up with a vulture win a few days later – he was bailed out by the offense after a blown save. To me, this isn’t one of those typical Neris slumps where he doesn’t have feel for his splitter. It’s probably ordinary misfortune. We’ll list him in this tier just in case.
Rosenthal is at the top of his game and has emerged as the Royals preferred closer. He’s using his cutter and changeup more than ever. The results speak for themselves 11.70 K/9, 0.90 ERA, and a 0.90 WHIP. Even ERA estimators think he’s a 3.00-3.50 ERA pitcher. That’ll do in 2020. Watch out for Josh Staumont. He very much looks like the closer of the future in KC.
Bradley pulled off a rare feat on Saturday – he earned a save while allowing three runs. He entered with a four-run lead in the eighth inning. The game ended with Jorge Mateo making an out at home. Bradley has no internal competition for saves so one bad outing isn’t a problem.
Hudson is establishing a Jekyll and Hyde pattern. He’s appeared in nine games. In the seven best, he’s held opponents to a combined total of one hit and one walk. The remaining two outings include five hits, a walk, seven runs, and three home runs (1.1 innings total). Altogether, he has five saves, 14.00 K/9, 7.00 ERA, and 0.89 WHIP. That’s mostly positive for fantasy managers.
Tier 4: Messy Upside (7)
Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros
Keone Kela, Pittsburgh Pirates
Rafael Montero, Texas Rangers
Taylor Williams, Seattle Mariners
Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers
Andrew Miller, Giovanny Gallegos, Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals
Anthony Bass, Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
When Pressly is right, he could be a top five closer. I highly recommend trying to buy low. While he allowed an unearned run yesterday, he’s looked better in recent outings. The Astros also lack viable alternatives. He’s pitched thrice in the last four days so expect an off day in Colorado. You didn’t want him pitching at Coors anyway.
Kela is in mid-season form after returning from injury. He’s pumping his usual 96.5 mph and has thrown more curves than fastballs. Too bad the Pirates are 4-15. You can’t earn a save if the team doesn’t win. Like the Red Sox, this is a problem that can be traced directly to the starting rotation.
Williams is continuing to flash potential. His main rivals, Dan Altavilla and Matt Magill, were recently handed losses. Williams has the most closer-like stuff, but he has been awfully prone to hard contact in his short career.
With the sheer volume of double-headers in their future, the Cardinals must distribute their saves. Fortunately, they have many high leverage relievers. If anybody steps up to claim a larger share of the job, they could leap up the tiers. Presently, Miller appears to be preferred, but his stuff has continued a multi-year decline. Gallegos is the one who looks most indominable. He would rank somewhere in the second tier if he was the sole closer.
Bass isn’t especially exciting by himself. He’s a typical ground ball-oriented reliever who keeps the bleeding to a minimum without overwhelming his opponents. Lurking behind him is Romero, a guy who very much can overwhelm. His primary pitch is an 89-mph slider complimented by a 97-mph fastball. The Blue Jays have probably found their future closer, it’s just a matter of how long they leave him in the wings.
Tier 5: The Leftovers (6)
Rowan Wick, Jeremy Jeffress, Craig Kimbrel, Chicago Cubs
Brandon Kintzler, Miami Marlins
Tony Watson, Tyler Rogers, San Francisco Giants
Cole Sulser, Baltimore Orioles
Ty Buttrey, Los Angeles Angels
Carlos Estevez, Daniel Bard, Colorado Rockies
It may seem like a pitcher with a 1.13 ERA and a strikeout per inning should rate in a higher tier, but I just can’t identify a carrying trait for Wick. He’s using his curve more than ever, but it’s no better than adequate. He’s had success inducing soft contact with his fastball. I’m not prepared to bet on continued soft contact. ERA estimators expect around a 4.00 ERA going forward. I’m equally unimpressed with Jeffress whose stuff has declined in quality. The club is trying to rehabilitate Kimbrel. He’s coming off a couple clean outings.
Trevor Gott stumbled so we’re back to our Opening Day tandem in San Francisco. Watson will be called upon to handle left-handed and mixed configurations while Rogers will get the right-handed opponents. Neither has any above average category projections. Sharing the role isn’t very helpful to fantasy managers.
Sulser had a solid week, tossing 3.2 innings with only one unearned run (it led to a loss). He has some breathing room. Mychal Givens has yet to allow a run. He’s missing velocity on all three of his pitches.
I don’t recommend wading into the cesspool known as the Rockies bullpen. If you do, look past Estevez to Bard. His inspiring comeback story won’t be complete without some saves.
Injured or Ill
Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Crick Pittsburgh Pirates
Roberto Osuna, Houston Astros (out for season)
Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies
Scott Oberg, Colorado Rockies
Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers
Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres (out for season)
Losing Yates is a big blow to the Padres.
Deposed
Craig Kimbrel, Chicago Cubs
Hansel Robles, Los Angeles Angels
Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Jairo Diaz, Colorado Rockies
Trevor Gott, San Francisco Giants
Zack Britton, New York Yankees (Chapman returned)
We’re still waiting to see if Edwin Diaz has recovered his job. Jairo Diaz is evidence of why it doesn’t pay to speculate for saves in Colorado.
Don’t say I didn’t warn you about Gott.
The Steals Department
Last week was the Running of the Marlins. Jonathan Villar led the league with four swipes over the previous seven days. Teammates Magneuris Sierra and Jon Berti nabbed three bags. Bryce Harper and Andres Gimenez joined them. Fernando Tatis Jr., Villar, and Gimenez share the seasonal lead of six steals. Tommy Pham is there too, but he’ll miss the next four to six weeks with a broken hand.
With a few exceptions, 2020 is a four-team stolen base race. We’ve focused a lot of attention on the Padres, Mariners, and Marlins. The Rangers are also in the mix. The cool thing about Miami is they’re up near the league lead with roughly 300 fewer plate appearances than San Diego and Seattle.
The Rangers have some upcoming opportunities against the Mariners and Athletics. They’ve been two of the 10 worst clubs at catching thieves. There are really only two players who stand out as readily available – Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Nick Solak. The former is catcher eligible while the latter is quickly accruing eligibility all over the field. You might also find Shin-Soo Choo and Elvis Andrus if their original managers lost patience.
The Miami speed squad runs deep. In addition to Villar, Sierra, and Berti, Eddy Alvarez, Monte Harrison, and Miguel Rojas (due to return soon from COVID) all can swipe a bag. Their next nine games are against the Mets and Nationals. Both clubs are exploitable on the base paths. Of those listed, only Villar and Rojas should be considered everyday players.
Losing Pham hurts, but the Padres have interesting players to take his place. One option who could see more time is Edward Olivares. He’s a potential five category contributor who is off to a slow start. Although he’s yet to steal a base, speed is his strongest trait. The same is true of hot hitting Jake Cronenworth. Jurickson Profar, Trent Grisham, and Wil Myers all have varying degrees of availability too. The Rangers, Astros, and Mariners await the Padres – all teams that allow steals.
Shockingly, Mallex Smith accounts for only two of the Mariners 25 steals. Utilitymen Dylan Moore and Tim Lopes have combined for nine. J.P. Crawford also has four steals – he’s a great temporary middle infield patch in OBP formats. The biggest surprise on the bases is Kyle Seager who appears to have made valuable adjustments at the plate. Buy high, he’ll still be cheap. Seattle plays the Dodgers, Rangers, and Padres over the next few days. The Dodgers have surprisingly struggled with runners.
The Braves have activated center fielder Cristian Pache. This is a power and speed double threat. He has volatile characteristics including a high swinging strike rate and a history of 25 percent strikeout rates at Double-A. Early in his career, speed and contact skills look like his carrying traits. Atlanta will spend much of the next week playing the Phillies. J.T. Realmuto is one of the best in the league at controlling the running game. A brief sojourn against the Yankees could offer an opportunity for Pache to run.
