Saves and Steals is back at Rotoworld. Starting this week, we’ll run through a weekly breakdown of each tier of closers and highlight some of the best base stealers around the league. Starting with saves, Felix Bautista, Alexis Diaz, and Giovanny Gallegos stand out with three each over the last seven days. Bautista has a case for best closer in baseball. Let’s see who joins him at the top.
Tier 1: The Elite
Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles
Alexis Diaz, Cincinnati Reds
Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Josh Hader, San Diego Padres
Bautista has proven through the first two months that last season’s breakout was legit. The 27-year-old right-hander has averaged two strikeouts per inning, with 54 over his first 27 frames this season to go with a 1.33 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 14 saves. The one blemish in his profile has been his elevated 15.2 percent walk rate. Still, there’s likely no one you’d want as closer over Bautista.
I’ll admit, I was more skeptical of Diaz after he posted a 12.9 percent walk rate with a fly-ball lean in 2022. Despite only a minimal improvement to that walk rate, it hasn’t mattered. He’s posted an incredible 48.8 percent strikeout rate with a 1.69 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while going 13-for-13 in save chances. Williams has been every bit as dominant as expected, with an 0.51 ERA. More save chances are due to come. And Hader has bounced back from his horrendous second half of 2022, recording an 0.82 ERA, 0.72 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts over 22 innings with 13 saves.
Tier 2: The Solid Options
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians
Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
David Bednar, Pittsburgh Pirates
Camilo Doval, San Francisco Giants
Paul Sewald, Seattle Mariners
Carlos Estevez, Los Angeles Angels
Ryan Pressly, Houston Astros
It’s hard to differentiate the closers in this tier. They haven’t been quite elite, but you’re happy to be rostering them. And every one of them has generally stable job security. Clase has come through with an MLB-best 17 saves, but it’s come with some cause for concern. You’d feel much better about his 3.46 ERA if he’d been striking more batters out. Clase has seen a significant dip in his whiff rate, as he’s collected only 19 strikeouts across 26 frames. Romano picked up two saves this week, giving him 12 on the year.
Bednar and the Pirates started the season off hot before cooling down in May. Though he’s been among the most skilled at the position, posting a 21.3 percent swinging-strike rate that ranks tops in baseball. Sewald has run with the closer role while Andres Muñoz has been on the injured list, converting 11 saves.
The biggest surprise in this tier has to be Estévez. He made himself comfortable in Anaheim after spending six years in Colorado. He dominated in May after a shaky start, giving him a 1.50 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts across 24 innings with 13 saves.
Tier 3: There’s Upside Here
Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez - Minnesota Twins
Kenley Jansen - Boston Red Sox
Jason Adam - Tampa Bay Rays
Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos - St. Louis Cardinals
Alex Lange - Detroit Tigers
Duran has skills on par with the top tier, but his team context and usage have given him only seven saves on the year. For the most part, Jansen has gotten the job done in Boston with 11 saves. But his strikeout and walk rates are going the wrong way, making him a volatile option.
With Pete Fairbanks back on the injured list, the Rays have used Adam as a full-time closer. He earned his seventh save this week and owns a 3.22 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts over 22 1/3 innings. Chances are, he’ll be the closer through the rest of the season as Fairbanks continues to have trouble staying healthy.
Helsley has had trouble repeating his incredible 2022 season. And this week, Gallegos overtook him for the team lead in saves with seven. Gallegos has been outstanding, posting a 2.38 ERA across 22 2/3 innings. I’d expect this near 50/50 split to continue in St. Louis.
Lange was another reliever that flashed incredible potential last season. His control issues were a red flag I thought would hold him back. That hasn’t been the case this year. He’s converted 10-of-11 save chances for the Tigers while posting a 1.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts across 23 1/3 innings.
Tier 4: Just Getting By
Will Smith - Texas Rangers
David Robertson, Adam Ottavino - New York Mets
Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol - Los Angeles Dodgers
Raisel Iglesias - Atlanta Braves
Liam Hendriks - Chicago White Sox
Michael King, Clay Holmes - New York Yankees
Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro - Arizona Diamondbacks
There’s plenty of potential in this tier, starting with Smith. The veteran worked with Rangers manager Bruce Bochy before, closing for the Giants in 2018-2019. Smith took over as the primary closer in Texas after José Leclerc struggled to hold the job through his control issues. He’s up to nine saves on the year and won’t post elite numbers anywhere else. But he should provide the saves needed to be competitive in the category.
Robertson and Ottavino each recorded a save this week as they continue to share the role on a matchup basis. Robertson is often tasked with facing the toughest opposing hitters in the late innings, even if that comes before the ninth. The same can be applied to Phillips and Graterol in Los Angeles, with Phillips leading the Dodgers with seven saves.
Iglesias and Hendriks give us a couple of relievers that could work their way back to the top. Iglesias locked down his fifth save on Wednesday as he continues to round into form after starting the season late with a shoulder injury. Hendriks’ story is one known around the baseball world. The veteran closer has been an inspiration, battling back from his victorious fight with cancer to make his debut on Monday. Given how early it is for Hendriks, it could be a while before we see him fully rebound.
The Yankees and Diamondbacks’ situations have been tricky all season, with the daily bullpen usage seemingly a crapshoot. Holmes still leads the team with five saves. Meanwhile, Chafin leads the Diamondbacks with eight. Castro earned his fifth this week and has alternated chances with Chafin over the last few weeks.
Tier 5: If You Must
Craig Kimbrel - Philadelphia Phillies
Scott Barlow - Kansas City Royals
Mark Leiter Jr., Adbert Alzolay - Chicago Cubs
Kyle Finnegan - Washington Nationals
Dylan Floro - Miami Marlins
Pierce Johnson - Colorado Rockies
Trevor May - Oakland A’s
You don’t want to go chasing saves from this tier if you can avoid it. Kimbrel has operated as the primary close while José Alvarado remains on the injured list. He picked up a pair of saves this week to give him seven. Johnson has 11 on the season, but you’ve had to endure a 6.23 ERA across 21 2/3 innings.
Injured
Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays - Hip inflammation
José Alvarado, Philadelphia Phillies - Elbow inflammation
A.J. Puk, Miami Marlins - Elbow nerve irritation
Andrés Muñoz - Shoulder strain
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Steals Department
The rule changes we’ve seen go into effect this season have changed the steals landscape in fantasy baseball. Through this point of the season, stolen bases are up roughly 40 percent over 2022. Sitting atop the leaderboard this season is speedy Oakland outfielder Esteury Ruiz. The potential was tantalizing after he stole 85 bases in the minors last year. The question was whether he’d hit enough in the majors. The 24-year-old is slashing .274/.340/.356 with one homer and 27 steals across 245 plate appearances. That’s a 66-steal pace over 600 plate appearances. Joining Ruiz at the top are Ronald Acuña Jr. (22), Wander Franco (20), Bobby Witt Jr. (17), Corbin Carroll (16), Jorge Mateo (15), and Starling Marte (15).
Speed Spotlight
Zach McKinstry trailed only Franco over the last seven days with four steals. After splitting time with the Dodgers and Cubs last season, the 27-year-old outfielder has made the most of his opportunity with the Tigers. McKinstry is hitting .288/.400/.432 with four homers and ten steals across 161 plate appearances. He’s flashing some incredible plate discipline, posting a 14.9 percent walk rate while cutting his strikeout rate down to 19.3 percent, an improvement from the 28.1 percent he posted last season. McKinstry is also flashing some excellent quality of contact, with an 11 percent barrel rate and 39 percent hard-hit rate. Some of this is likely due to his limited exposure to left-handed pitching. Still, he’s taking hold of the leadoff spot against right-handers. McKinstry is a worthy addition in even shallower mixed leagues if searching for steals.
