Here’s the third and final projections review column, this one focusing on starting pitchers. Included is my entire preseason top 30 and everyone else I found interesting.
The next column will be the Top 111 Free Agents article, which will be posted soon after the World Series concludes.
1. Gerrit Cole - Yankees
Projection: 15-8, 3.12 ERA, 1.003 WHIP, 247 K in 193 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 13-8, 3.50 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 257 K in 200 2/3 IP
The average pitcher had a homer-to-barrel rate of 56% this year. Cole’s was 72% (33 homers, 46 barrels allowed). He would have given up 27 homers with a league-average rate there. In general, though, the contact that Cole allowed was rather loud. His hard-hit rate was 12th highest among the 45 qualified starters and he’s not getting a ton of grounders there.
2. Walker Buehler - Dodgers
Projection: 16-6, 2.95 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 214 K in 192 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 6-3, 4.02 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 58 K in 65 IP
3. Max Scherzer - Mets
Projection: 15-7, 3.15 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, 245 K in 188 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 11-5, 2.29 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 173 K in 145 1/3 IP
4. Corbin Burnes - Brewers
Projection: 13-6, 2.79 ERA, 1.008 WHIP, 226 K in 167 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-8, 2.94 ERA, 0.965 WHIP, 243 K in 202 IP
Burnes’ K rate dipped from 35.6% in his Cy Young season to 30.5% this year and his FIP nearly doubled (1.63 to 3.14), but as follow-ups go, this was still very good, particularly since he was able to make 33 starts and top 200 innings.
5. Brandon Woodruff - Brewers
Projection: 14-7, 2.99 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 209 K in 180 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 13-4, 3.05 ERA, 1.070 WHIP, 190 K in 153 1/3 IP
6. Shane Bieber - Guardians
Projection: 14-8, 3.11 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 240 K in 179 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 13-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.040 WHIP, 198 K in 200 IP
This looked like quite a mistake with Bieber’s velocity down at the beginning of the year, but he turned in a pretty stellar season while throwing 1.5 mph slower than 2021 and nearly three mph slower than 2020. The velocity decline did show up in the strikeout rate, though; he went from 41% in 2020 to 33% in 2021 to 25% this year.
7. Julio Urías - Dodgers
Projection: 15-6, 3.02 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 187 K in 175 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 17-7, 2.16 ERA, 0.960 WHIP, 166 K in 175 IP
Urías had a 3.71 FIP to go along with that 2.16 ERA, but he was apparently unlucky in another regard; Statcast has him as one of the five pichers in baseball to give up at least four more homers than their expected home run stat. Germán Márquez allowed six more, Josiah Gray and Sean Manaea gave up five more and Urías and José Urquidy allowed four more.
8. Sandy Alcantara - Marlins
Projection: 14-8, 3.18 ERA, 1.087 WHIP, 195 K in 192 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 14-9, 2.28 ERA, 0.980 WHIP, 207 K in 228 2/3 IP
It’s rather ridiculous that Alcantara’s season only led to 14 wins. That 14 is also as many starts that he had in which he pitched at least seven innings and allowed no more than one run and then he had nine more quality starts beyond those.
9. Zack Wheeler - Phillies
Projection: 14-8, 3.28 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 202 K in 186 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-7, 2.82 ERA, 1.039 WHIP, 163 K in 153 IP
10. Justin Verlander - Astros
Projection: 14-8, 3.52 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, 210 K in 176 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 18-4, 1.75 ERA, 0.829 WHIP, 185 K in 175 IP
11. Max Fried - Braves
Projection: 14-7, 3.21 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 182 K in 179 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 14-7, 2.48 ERA, 1.014 WHIP, 170 K in 185 1/3 IP
12. Logan Webb - Giants
Projection: 13-6, 2.98 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 163 K in 160 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 15-9, 2.90 ERA, 1.159 WHIP, 163 K in 192 1/3 IP
I felt like durability was a concern with Webb going into the year, but he made 32 starts this season and performed to expectations. Still, I’d feel a lot better about him if he kept striking out a batter an inning. With his velocity down a tad, his strikeout rate dipped from 26.5% in 2021 to 20.7% this year.
13. Lucas Giolito - White Sox
Projection: 13-9, 3.50 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 222 K in 182 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 11-9, 4.90 ERA, 1.435 WHIP, 177 K in 161 2/3 IP
A May bout with COVID may have had something to do with Giolito’s decline this year. The White Sox have to hope so, anyway. His velocity, which held rather steady early in the year, was well down in September and that’s a little scary.
14. Jacob deGrom - Mets
Projection: 7-3, 2.14 ERA, 0.863 WHIP, 114 K in 80 IP
2022 stats: 5-4, 3.08 ERA, 0.746 WHIP, 102 K in 64 1/3 IP
15. Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
Projection: 14-7, 3.61 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 205 K in 184 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-10, 3.35 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, 205 K in 174 2/3 IP
That Gausman managed a 3.35 ERA in spite of a ridiculous .363 BABIP is incredible. His 2.38 FIP was second best among qualified starters. Still, it’s not all bad luck in Gausman’s case; his career .307 BABIP going into this season was still 12-13 points higher than the league average. His current career .316 BABIP is second highest among active pitchers (min. 1,000 IP) behind only Patrick Corbin at .319.
16. Freddy Peralta - Brewers
Projection: 12-6, 3.37 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, 206 K in 152 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 86 K in 78 IP
17. José Berríos - Blue Jays
Projection: 14-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.124 WHIP, 198 K in 190 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-7, 5.23 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, 149 K in 172 IP
Berríos was one of three pitchers to give up at least 100 runs this year, joining Corbin and Germán Márquez. Still, the Blue Jays were 23-9 when Berrios started. They had identical 18-13 records when Alek Manoah and Gausman pitched.
18. Charlie Morton - Braves
Projection: 13-7, 3.36 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 190 K in 168 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 9-6, 4.34 ERA, 1.233 WHIP, 205 K in 172 IP
Morton didn’t get it going until mid-June. He had a 3.63 ERA and a 1.101 WHIP in his final 19 starts.
19. Joe Musgrove - Padres
Projection: 13-7, 3.53 ERA, 1.119 WHIP, 193 K in 170 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 10-7, 2.93 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 184 K in 181 IP
20. Yu Darvish - Padres
Projection: 13-7, 3.60 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 200 K in 167 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 16-8, 3.10 ERA, 0.950 WHIP, 197 K in 194 2/3 IP
Darvish pitched 166 1/3 innings in 30 starts last year. In the same numbers of starts this year, he pitched 194 2/3 innings. His number of quality starts just about doubled, going from 13 to 25.
21. Robbie Ray - Mariners
Projection: 13-9, 3.73 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 224 K in 176 IP
2022 stats: 12-12, 3.71 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 212 K in 189 IP
22. Alek Manoah - Blue Jays
Projection: 13-6, 3.58 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 193 K in 168 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 16-7, 2.24 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, 180 K in 196 2/3 IP
Manoah was overshadowed by Shane McClanahan for much of the year, but he finished fourth in the majors in ERA and threw more innings than the three guys ahead of him (Verlander, Urías and Dylan Cease). I’m still rather surprised he didn’t strike more batters out. It was a .244 BABIP that allowed him to thrive; he had the fourth lowest barrel and hard-hit rates among qualified starters.
23. Aaron Nola - Phillies
Projection: 14-9, 3.91 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, 223 K in 188 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 11-13, 3.25 ERA, 0.961 WHIP, 235 K in 205 IP
I faded Phillies pitchers because of the team’s defense, but Alec Bohm wasn’t as bad as expected at third base and the midseason shortstop and center field upgrades definitely helped. Nola still definitely deserved better than a 3.25 ERA, but the defense didn’t hold him back as much as I figured it would. It’s pretty incredible that he went just 11-13 anyway.
24. Shohei Ohtani - Angels
Projection: 11-6, 3.30 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, 177 K in 141 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 219 K in 166 IP
Ohtani had the sixth-best ERA in baseball this year, but he was second best in terms of RA (2.44), since he allowed just two unearned runs all season. His 33.2% strikeout rate was barely behind Carlos Rodón at 33.4% for the highest mark among qualified starters.
25. Chris Bassitt - Mets
Projection: 13-8, 3.60 ERA, 1.117 WHIP, 168 K in 177 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 15-9, 3.42 ERA, 1.145 WHIP, 167 K in 181 2/3 IP
26. Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
Projection: 11-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.027 WHIP, 152 K in 137 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-3, 2.28 ERA, 0.942 WHIP, 137 K in 126 1/3 IP
27. Carlos Rodón - Giants
Projection: 10-5, 3.22 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 175 K in 139 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 14-8, 2.88 ERA, 1.028 WHIP, 237 K in 178 IP
28. Shane McClanahan - Rays
Projection: 11-7, 3.37 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, 193 K in 160 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-8, 2.54 ERA, 0.926 WHIP, 194 K in 166 1/3 IP
29. Frankie Montas - Athletics/Yankees
Projection: 13-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 200 K in 180 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 5-12, 4.05 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 142 K in 144 1/3 IP
30. Jack Flaherty - Cardinals
Projection: 11-6, 3.44 ERA, 1.083 WHIP, 163 K in 144 IP
2022 stats: 2-1, 4.25 ERA, 1.611 WHIP, 33 K in 36 1/3
31. Lance Lynn - White Sox
Projection: 11-6, 3.36 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 148 K in 142 IP
2022 stats: 8-7, 3.99 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 124 K in 121 2/3 IP
32. Luis Castillo - Reds/Mariners
Projection: 12-9, 3.55 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 193 K in 177 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 8-6, 2.99 ERA, 1.084 WHIP, 167 K in 150 1/3 IP
33. Logan Gilbert - Mariners
Projection: 11-8, 3.65 ERA, 1.104 WHIP, 175 K in 160 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 13-6, 3.20 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 174 K in 185 2/3 IP
Gilbert is someone I’ll likely be lower than the consensus on next year. He didn’t show as much strikeout ability as hoped this season, and he actually had the second-highest hard-hit rate among qualified starters. I’m not writing him off or anything, but he’s either going to need to produce either more missed swings or more soft contact in order to remain at this level.
34. Luis Garcia - Astros
Projection: 11-7, 3.61 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 177 K in 164 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 15-8, 3.72 ERA, 1.131 WHIP, 157 K in 157 1/3 IP
35. Blake Snell - Padres
Projection: 11-7, 3.54 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 192 K in 157 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 8-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 171 K in 128 IP
39. Ian Anderson - Braves
Projection: 11-7, 3.61 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 184 K in 164 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 10-6, 5.00 ERA, 1.513 WHIP, 97 K in 111 2/3 IP
The roof sure did cave in on Anderson awfully quickly. He was a postseason stud his first two years in the majors, yet he’s probably going to enter 2023 seventh or eighth on the Braves’ rotation depth chart.
41. Alex Cobb - Giants
Projection: 10-6, 3.34 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, 130 K in 137 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 7-8, 3.73 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 151 K in 149 2/3 IP
43. Trevor Rogers - Marlins
Projection: 10-8, 3.54 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 178 K in 152 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 4-11, 5.47 ERA, 1.505 WHIP, 106 K in 107 IP
45. Jose Urquidy - Astros
Projection: 10-7, 3.70 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 137 K in 150 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 13-8, 3.94 ERA, 1.168 WHIP, 134 K in 164 1/3 IP
48. Dylan Cease - White Sox
Projection: 11-9, 3.96 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 211 K in 170 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 14-8, 2.20 ERA, 1.109 WHIP, 227 K in 184 IP
My biases against flyball pitchers who walk too many batters definitely bit me here. Cease’s slider took a step forward, and throwing breaking balls about 50% more often than he did his fastball helped some with the flyball tendencies. His hard-hit rates had been worse than the league average previously. This year, he was third best among qualified pitchers.
47. Triston McKenzie - Guardians
Projection: 9-7, 3.77 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 167 K in 148 IP
2022 stats: 11-11, 2.96 ERA, 0.951 WHIP, 190 K in 191 1/3 IP
It should also be noted that it was a great year to by a flyball pitcher. McKenkie had the highest flyball rate of anyone in the league, but he went from allowing 1.6 homers per nine innings in 2021 to 1.2 this year. His HR/FB rate went from 14.7% to 10.3%, even though his exit velocity numbers didn’t change much at all.
(Yes, I had McKenzie one spot ahead of Cease. Poetic license, please).
49. Sean Manaea - Padres
Projection: 11-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.162 WHIP, 162 K in 164 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 8-9, 4.71 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 156 K in 158 IP
50. Jordan Montgomery - Cardinals
Projection: 11-8, 3.87 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 179 K in 167 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 9-6, 3.48 ERA, 1.093 WHIP, 158 K in 178 1/3 IP
54. Luis Severino - Yankees
Projection: 9-6, 3.70 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, 164 K in 141 IP
2022 stats: 7-3, 3.18 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 112 K in 102 IP
55. Joe Ryan - Twins
Projection: 10-8, 3.92 ERA, 1.143 WHIP, 161 K in 147 IP
2022 stats: 13-8, 3.55 ERA, 1.102 WHIP, 151 K in 147 IP
60. Ranger Suárez - Phillies
Projection: 10-7, 3.79 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 139 K in 147 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 10-7, 3.65 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 129 K in 155 1/3 IP
One of this year’s trickier projections turned out just fine. It would have been nice if Suárez had missed a few more bats, but his groundball ability should allow him to stick as a mid-rotation starter.
68. Michael Kopech - White Sox
Projection: 9-6, 3.68 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, 173 K in 138 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 5-9, 3.54 ERA, 1.190 WHIP, 105 K in 119 1/3 IP
70. Eric Lauer - Brewers
Projection: 11-8, 3.93 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, 157 K in 158 IP
2022 stats: 11-7, 3.69 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 157 K in 158 2/3 IP
I guess it’s too late now to petition that four of Lauer’s unearned runs be changed to earned.
71. Framber Valdez - Astros
Projection: 12-9, 3.69 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 162 K in 175 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 17-6, 2.82 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 194 K in 201 1/3 IP
Valdez’s velocity dropped a tad in 2021, but he was up by 1.5 mph this year, which certainly helped. He also gave up just 11 homers despite allowing 32 barrels.
74. Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers
Projection: 8-5, 3.50 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 123 K in 115 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 16-1, 2.14 ERA, 0.875 WHIP, 119 K in 130 1/3 IP
76. Adam Wainwright - Cardinals
Projection: 11-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 145 K in 171 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 11-12, 3.71 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, 143 K in 191 2/3 IP
81. Drew Rasmussen - Rays
Projection: 9-6, 3.81 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 154 K in 141 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 11-7, 2.84 ERA, 1.041 WHIP, 125 K in 146 IP
86. Patrick Sandoval - Angels
Projection: 10-8, 3.90 ERA, 1.246 WHIP, 154 K in 147 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 6-9, 2.91 ERA, 1.339 WHIP, 151 K in 148 2/3 IP
I still have no read on Sandoval at all. That he was very effective this year was a result of him giving up homers on one out of every 16 flyballs he allowed. Going into this year, he had given up homers on one out of every five flyballs in his career. He also somehow beat his 3.09 FIP in spite of a .316 BABIP that was 46 points higher than his career mark. The craziness led to him crushing my ERA projection while simultaneously posting a significantly higher WHIP than my guess. For what it’s worth, Statcast gave him an xERA of 3.91. I don’t think I’m going to have him much higher in the rankings next season.
89. Zac Gallen - Diamondbacks
Projection: 9-10, 4.07 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 177 K in 166 IP
2022 stats: 12-4, 2.54 ERA, 0.913 WHIP, 192 K in 184 IP
I couldn’t find much to be optimistic about here after 2021, but Gallen picked up two mph on his curveball, finally got his walk rate down and just stopped giving up hits as the year went along. Of course, it was midseason when he really took off; he had a 23% strikeout rate before the break, but he came in at 31% afterwards.
90. Jon Gray - Rangers
Projection: 10-9, 3.95 ERA, 1.236 WHIP, 155 K in 159 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 7-7, 3.96 ERA, 1.131 WHIP, 134 K in 127 1/3 IP
94. Noah Syndergaard - Angels/Phillies
Projection: 9-8, 4.10 ERA, 1.220 WHIP, 146 K in 142 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 10-10, 3.94 ERA, 1.255 WHIP, 95 K in 134 2/3 IP
It’s actually quite impressive the way Syndergaard kept it together while averaging 94 mph with his fastball, considering that he usually underachieved while throwing 98 mph. Still, the 17% strikeout rate (career was 26%) combined with a career-worst groundball rate doesn’t seem to bode well for his future.
100. Cristian Javier - Astros
Projection: 7-4, 2 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 108 K in 86 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 11-9, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 0.948 WHIP, 194 K in 148 2/3 IP
103. Brady Singer - Royals
Projection: 9-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.267 WHIP, 149 K in 150 IP
2022 stats: 10-5, 3.23 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, 150 K in 153 1/3 IP
106. Tyler Anderson - Dodgers
Projection: 9-7, 4.31 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 131 K in 150 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 15-5, 2.57 ERA, 1.002 WHIP, 138 K in 178 2/3 IP
110. Nestor Cortes - Yankees
Projection: 8-6, 4.29 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, 133 K in 123 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-4, 2.44 ERA, 0.922 WHIP, 163 K in 158 1/3 IP
Cortes entered the league throwing 89 mph as a reliever, but he was up over 92 mph consistently for the final four months of this season. That he was able to generate so much soft contact makes the .232 BABIP look less fluky. Statcast gave him an xERA of 2.70, which was fifth lowest among SPs.
124. Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
Projection: 10-9, 4.51 ERA, 1.354 WHIP, 167 K in 153 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 10-12, 4.56 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 175 K in 179 2/3 IP
126. Spencer Strider - Braves
Projection: 6-3, 3.93 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 95 K n 87 IP
2022 stats: 11-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.995 WHIP, 202 K in 131 2/3 IP
Strider’s 38.3% strikeout rate was the third highest ever for someone to top 100 innings. The only better marks belonged to Cole in 2019 (39.9%, 326 K) and Chris Sale in 2018 (38.4%, 237 K).
132. Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
Projection: 7-8, 4.22 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 102 K in 134 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-13, 3.29 ERA, 1.033 WHIP, 153 K in 202 1/3 IP
142. Patrick Corbin - Nationals
Projection: 9-12, 4.52 ERA, 1.372 WHIP, 172 K in 179 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 6-19, 6.31 ERA, 1.697 WHIP, 128 K in 152 2/3 IP
145. Madison Bumgarner - Diamondbacks
Projection: 8-12, 4.88 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 154 K in 169 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 7-15, 4.88 ERA, 1.437 WHIP, 112 K in 158 2/3 IP
148. Kyle Freeland - Rockies
Projection: 10-9, 4.59 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 144 K in 157 IP
2022 stats: 9-11, 4.53 ERA, 1.408 WHIP, 131 K in 174 2/3 IP
155. Ross Stripling - Blue Jays
Projection: 6-5, 1 SV, 4.41 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 96 K in 100 IP
2022 stats: 10-4, 0 SV, 3.01 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 111 K in 134 1/3 IP
Stripling found his slider. A quality pitch for him at the beginning of his career, he had thrown it less in recent seasons and it was often pummeled when it was used. This year, he threw it 446 times and never gave up a homer on it.
159. Nick Lodolo - Reds
Projection: 6-8, 4.32 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, 113 K in 114 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 4-7, 3.90 ERA, 1.248 WHIP, 131 K in 103 1/3 IP
That’s a 30% strikeout rate from a guy who had all of 70 minor league innings under his belt coming into the year. The only problem here is Lodolo’s team. I expect very good things going forward, but it’s still hard to envision a Reds pitcher being particularly useful in fantasy leagues in 2023.
168. Kyle Wright - Braves
Projection: 5-5, 4.35 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 94 K in 97 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 21-5, 3.19 ERA, 1.159 WHIP, 174 K in 10 1/3 IP
170. George Kirby - Mariners
Projection: 5-5, 4.36 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 85 K in 88 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 8-5, 3.39 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 133 K in 130 IP
172. Roansy Contreras - Pirates
Projection: 4-6, 4.24 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 94 K in 93 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 5-5, 3.79 ERA, 1.274 WHIP, 86 K in 95 IP
175. Justin Steele - Cubs
Projection: 6-7, 4.45 ERA, 1.361 WHIP, 116 K in 115 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 4-7, 3.18 ERA, 1.353 WHIP, 126 K in 119 IP
181. Hunter Greene - Reds
Projection: 5-8, 4.50 ERA, 1.373 WHIP, 133 K in 118 IP
2022 stats: 5-13, 4.44 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 164 K in 125 2/3 IP
187. Kyle Gibson - Phillies
Projection: 10-12, 4.76 ERA, 1.403 WHIP, 155 K in 170 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 10-8, 5.05 ERA, 1.336 WHIP, 144 K in 167 2/3 IP
191. MacKenzie Gore - Padres/Nationals (DNP)
Projection: 4-4, 4.32 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 88 K in 81 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 4-4, 4.50 ERA, 1.471 WHIP, 72 K in 70 IP
199. Johnny Cueto - White Sox
Projection: 7-9, 4.69 ERA, 1.350 WHIP, 114 K in 136 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 8-10, 3.35 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, 102 K in 158 1/3 IP
204. Merrill Kelly - Diamondbacks
Projection: 7-12, 4.71 ERA, 1.344 WHIP, 131 K in 160 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 13-8, 3.37 ERA, 1.138 WHIP, 177 K in 200 1/3 IP
Kelly was very good while showing his best velocity as a major leaguer, but that Chase Field has become a terrible home run park probably helped. There were 150 homers in Diamondbacks home games this year and 214 in their road games. Kelly ended up allowing just 21 homers despite giving up 47 barrels, tied for sixth most in baseball.
206. Chris Archer - Twins
Projection: 5-7, 4.62 ERA, 1.379 WHIP, 104 K in 99 1/3 IP
2022 stats: 2-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.315 WHIP, 84 K in 103 2/3 IP
225. Michael Wacha - Red Sox
Projection: 5-7, 4.72 ERA, 1.406 WHIP, 99 K in 101 IP
2022 stats: 11-2, 3.32 ERA, 1.115 WHIP, 104 K in 127 1/3 IP
232. José Quintana - Pirates/Cardinals
Projection: 6-12, 4.75 ERA, 1.429 WHIP, 153 K in 147 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 6-7, 2.93 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 137 K in 165 2/3 IP
NR. Martín Pérez - Rangers
Projection: 7-12, 4.97 ERA, 1.516 WHIP, 125 K in 155 2/3 IP
2022 stats: 12-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 169 K in 196 1/3 IP