The key to any good fantasy baseball draft is finding value. Yes, we want to hit on our picks in the first few rounds, since those are our studs, but if we can get more production out of our mid-round picks than their draft price indicated, then we could put together a real title contender. With that in mind, this article aims to identify hitter values by examining players who seem poised to bounce back from sub-standard seasons last year.
I created a hitter leaderboard and only kept hitters who had a wRC+ under 100 and a negative Offense rating as part of their fWAR. The idea was to simply look at players who were below-average last year. I didn’t want to focus on a “bounceback” from a player that was actually just fine. I then looked at their contact quality (EV90, Hard-Hit%), their overall contact profile (SwStr% and Zone Contact%), and who got unlucky on the balls they did put in play (BABIP, HR/FB). By doing that, I was able to create what I believe is a solid list of players who had “down” years last year, but deserved to have a little more success and should be set up for better seasons in 2026.
I’ve included ADP data because the goal is for us to be drafting players that we think can out-produce their current ADP. All ADP data is taken from NFBC Online Championship (12-team) drafts from February 24th to March 10th, which is 43 drafts.
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
Bounceback hitters for fantasy baseball 2026
Most of these hitters are all players I’ve written about before, so you can check out my earlier articles to see more detailed write-ups. I covered Cam Smith (ADP: 325) and Jac Caglianone (ADP: 186) in my article on second-year hitters due for improvement, and I believe in both. I discussed Bo Naylor (ADP: 411) and Jordan Walker (ADP: 311) in my article on post-hype hitters, and I mentioned Ozzie Albies (ADP: 156) in my article on Pull Air%. I mentioned Christian Walker (ADP: 211) in my first base preview article, and I interviewed Jake Burger (ADP: 232) during spring training and wrote about that here. I have not yet written about Casey Schmitt, and he does not have a starting spot in San Francisco, but I wanted to mention him here because he intrigues me if he finds his way into playing time.
Brooks Baldwin - OF, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 443)
As of now, it seems like Brooks Baldwin will be the starting centerfielder for the White Sox, and I’m not sure why he isn’t getting any interest. For starters, he hit .368/.427/.752 in 29 Triple-A games with 11 home runs, 38 RBI, and five steals. Yes, that didn’t carry over to his big league at-bats, but what we did see was a 41% hard-hit rate and an 11% barrel rate, plus a league-average 85% zone contact rate and 11% swinging strike rate (SwStr%). So even in his first MLB games ever, he made contact at a league-average rate, and that contact was of a really high quality. Considering there is no elite competition in the outfield ready to push him out of a spot, and that Baldwin also played second base, third base, and shortstop for the White Sox last season, I think there’s a good path to 500+ plate appearances for Baldwin in 2026, and I love targeting him in deeper formats.
Luis Rengifo - 3B, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 351)
I don’t have a lot of reasons to believe in Rengifo based on 2025, I’m just gonna put that out there. However, in 331 games between 2022 and 2024, Rengifo hit .273/.323/.431 with just a 16.3% strikeout rate and 36 stolen bases. He had 24 steals in 2024 alone when the Angels started running more, so even though he doesn’t post elite exit velocities or have much home run power, there is a real chance that, in a good offensive environment in Milwaukee, Rengifo could be a .260-.270 hitter with 15 steals. He’s also a switch-hitter who has performed well against left-handed pitching in his career, so there is no reason for the Brewers to put him in a strict platoon. If he gets even 450 plate appearances, then he would more than meet this ADP cost.
The Likely Bounceback Hitter
There are a few injury-related bouncebacks here. Lawrence Butler (ADP: 159), Luis Robert (ADP: 107), Josh Jung (ADP: 386), Dylan Crews (ADP: 168), Josh Lowe (ADP: 296), Royce Lewis (ADP: 189), and Adolis Garcia (ADP: 218) all either played through injury, missed time with injury, or were coming off injury last season. I know Lawrence Butler is currently still dealing with his knee issues, and Josh Lowe was sidelined early in spring with an oblique injury, but I can see the case for all of these guys enjoying a much better 2026. The Angels claimed that they held Lowe out of games as a precaution, given his previous injuries, and that he should be back soon. There’s even a chance he’s not in a strict platoon now that he’s not in Tampa Bay. Garcia gets a significant ballpark upgrade moving to Philadelphia, and the lineup around him is explosive, so I really like him at his ADP cost. I find it harder to get behind drafting Jung or Lewis because I’m less convinced that they can stay healthy or that Jung can be the player we thought he was before his years of injury, but I can see taking a gamble on both if they fell in your drafts.
Lastly, we have to acknowledge the mental and motivational side of this game, and it’s pretty clear that Luis Robert did not want to be on the White Sox anymore. He gets a massive team context upgrade by moving to the Mets, and his new organization is already rolling out a pretty rigid plan this spring to keep him healthy. Robert hit .298/.352/.456 with five home runs and 11 steals in 31 games after the All-Star break last season, while posting elite exit velocities, so he can still play. He just needs to stay on the field.
Oneil Cruz - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 91)
Listen, I know Cruz crushed people’s batting average last year, but I promise you that it’s really not that bad. Yes, a .200 average is bad, but if you look under the hood, a lot of his contact metrics are the same as we’ve seen from him in the past. A 79.1% zone contact rate is essentially his career average and better than what he did in 2024. He actually chased outside of the zone the least he has ever in his career. His 67.8% contact rate overall was better than his career average and better than what he did in 2024. His 13.3% SwStr% is better than his career average and better than what he did in 2024. His bat speed remains elite. His hard-hit rate was 56.6%, which is the best of his career, and his 17.9% barrell rate was also the best of his career. He took more called strikes than he had since 2022, so perhaps he fell behind in the count more often than we’re used to seeing, but last season was essentially status quo for Cruz, which means thathe probably could have hit closer to his .233 career average. You could blame a career-low .262 BABIP for that or learning a brand new defensive position. All I know is that Cruz is almost a lock for a 20/20 season and could easily push 25/25 while hitting in an improved Pirates lineup. If he just does that and also hits .230 instead of .200, then you’re looking at a valuable fantasy season.
Bryan Reynolds - OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 205)
Another bounce-back here for the Pirates. For four years from 2021 to 2024, we got incredibly consistent production from Reynolds. He spiked a huge batting average season in 2021, but was essentially a .270 hitter with 25 home runs and 8-10 steals who put up around 150 Runs+RBI on a mediocre to poor team. All of a sudden, last year, he hit .245/.318/.402 with 16 home runs and his highest strikeout rate ever. Is he washed at just 31 years old? That seems unlikely. His SwStr%, contact rate, zone contact rate, swing rates, and hard-hit rates are all within his career norms. He posted a 10.1% barrel rate and actually increased his bat speed from previous seasons. You could point out that he pulled the ball more than he has since 2021 and lifted it at the lowest rate he ever has in the big leagues, but those would also be minor issues. Now, his fly ball rate did go down as the season went on, so that’s something to keep an eye on. There’s a chance it was just a correction to combat his struggles, but we can monitor that while also expecting a bounce-back.
Michael Harris II - OF, Atlanta Braves (ADP: 100)
In many ways, Michael Harris III bounced back in the middle of last season already. In 67 games in the second half, he hit .299/.315/.530 with 14 home runs, 33 runs, 42 RBI, and eight steals. That’s a pretty solid pace. On the year as a whole, Harris also posted his best zone contact rate ever, his second-best contact rate ever, and career-norm exit velocities. He seemed to trade some line drives for fly balls, but his launch angle and swing path remained the same, so that feels more like a bit of a fluke than a conscious change in approach. Yes, Harris may always be a streaky hitter, but he’s also a hitter who makes better-than-average league contact while posting a 10% barrel rate and 20 stolen base upside. I have him down to hit .273 with 22 home runs, 74 runs, 75 RBI, and 18 steals. That’s a player I’m targeting in a lot of leagues.
Adley Rutschman - C, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 148)
I said multiple times last season that I was betting on Adley to figure it out, and he never did. But that doesn’t stop me from just proclaiming last year as a fluke. Let’s look under the hood for a second. He had a 92% zone contact rate. That’s well above league average and the best mark of his career. He had an 86.6% contact rate. That’s well above league average and the best mark of his career. He had just a 5.4% swinging strike rate. That’s well above league average and the best mark of his career. He was perhaps a bit more passive than we’d like to see, but his swing rate wasn’t much different than what we saw from him in 2022 and 2023. His pull rate was in line with what we’ve always seen from him, and his flyball rate was lower than 2024 but also higher than both 2022 and 2023, so he has succeeded with that batted ball profile. His bat speed increased, his barrel rate was the second highest of his career, and his hard-hit rate was tied for a career-best. None of that sounds like the profile of a hitter having his worst season ever. Perhaps Adley won’t ever be more than what we’ve seen him be in recent seasons, but that’s still a guy who should hit .250-.260 with 20 home runs while playing most days for one of the best teams in the AL. That’s a good profile for a fantasy catcher.
Marcus Semien - 2B, New York Mets (ADP: 263)
It’s important to remember that a bounce-back doesn’t always have to mean a player’s peak value; it can just be to their previous norm. I don’t think Semien is going back to hitting .276, but he’s a career .253 hitter, so even getting .240 out of him should make us feel a little better. The bounce back for me is in the power. He had hit at least 23 home runs in four straight seasons and then hit 15 last year. Yet, his barrel rate was the same, his bat speed was the same, and his average exit velocity was the same. His pull rate was down slightly, and his fly ball rate was up, but that doesn’t really account for why his HR/FB rate fell from a career 11.5% rate to just 8.5% last year. Semien now is in a slightly better park for right-handed power and in a lineup where he will hit behind Juan Soto, Jorge Polanco, and Luis Robert, which should give him ample RBI opportunities. I think we’re looking at another 20+ home run season for Semien with 70+ RBI again as well. I prefer him more as a MIF type, but he’ll have value.
Matt McLain - 2B, Cincinnati Reds (ADP: 174)
I created my leaderboard for this article about a week and a half ago and highlighted McLain’s name. Then I went to Arizona for MLB spring training and watched him hit two towering home runs in one game, and then watched his draft stock soar. Everybody is expecting a bounce-back from him now, and it’s hard to argue against it. The initial reason is obvious. He had a shoulder injury before last season and was clearly not 100% in 2025. Yet, despite that, his max exit velocity was the same as in 2023, his hard-hit rate was about 1.5% lower, and he still sported an 8% barrel rate. His zone contact was around league average, and his SwStr% was just around league average as well. None of that suggests he should have hit .220/.300/.343. I know many people think his 2023 season was a fluke, but I’m not one of them. No, he may not hit .290 again, but I have McLain down to hit .252 with 20 home runs, 67 runs, 67 RBI, and 19 steals. I’m more than happy to have him as my 2B in any league types.
J.T. Realmuto - C, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 216)
Realmuto falls into that Marcus Semien camp: a veteran everyone thinks is washed, and I think is just no longer as good as he was at his peak. Last season, Realmuto had a 45.4% hard-hit rate. The league average was 41%. He had a 10.4% SwStr%. The league average was 11%. His EV90, which measures his 90th percentile exit velocity, meaning the average of his top 10% hardest-hit balls, was 105.8 mph. The league average was 105.1 mph. His 9% barrel rate was still strong, his zone contact rate remains elite, and even if his bat speed has decreased a bit, it’s still an above-average mark. I still think Realmuto has value. He’s no longer a threat to steal 20 bases, but I think he can steal 10 while hitting .260 with 15 home runs in a good lineup. That’s still valuable if you wait on catcher.
⚾️ Coming soon: MLB returns to NBC and Peacock in 2026! In addition to becoming the exclusive home of Sunday Night Baseball, NBC Sports will broadcast MLB Sunday Leadoff, “Opening Day” and Labor Day primetime games, the first round of the MLB Draft, the entire Wild Card round of the postseason, and much more.
The Long Shot Bounceback Hitters
I’m not going to cover everybody in this range in detail, but I’ll give some brief thoughts below on each one. Think of it as the kind of back-of-the-notecard content you’d jot down to prep for a test.
Jesús Sánchez (ADP: 367) hit .256/.320/.420 in 86 games with the Marlins with 10 home runs before being traded. His EV90 was 108 mph, which is well above the league average, and his hard-hit rate was also above league average. He’s now on a much better team in a park that’s better for left-handed power. He won’t play against left-handed pitching, but he’ll hit righties well enough.
Ryan McMahon (ADP: 447) changed his batting stance this offseason, which I covered in a blurb on our website here. He had a really solid 50.5% hard-hit rate last season, and playing at Yankee Stadium for a full year should allow him to push 25 home runs. He doesn’t make as much contact as his teammate Austin Wells (ADP: 255), who also appears here, but McMahon consistently makes harder contact. I think they both could hit .230-.240 with 25 home runs in a good lineup, which would make both of them valuable in deeper formats.
I covered Cedric Mullins (ADP: 300) in my Pull Air% article, and there’s an argument that Luis Garcia Jr. (ADP: 251) shouldn’t even be on here because he hit .252 with 16 home runs and 14 steals, but his wRC+ and offensive value were below average. I still believe he’s a plus contact hitter with slightly better than league-average contact quality who should play every day and may be 1B/2B eligible by the middle of May. That has value.
I know you’re going to laugh that Nolan Jones is on here, and I’m not sure I believe it, but I wanted to point out why. He had a 46.7% hard-hit rate, which is above league average. He had a 105.2 mph EV90, which is league average. He had a league-average swinging strike rate and an 8.7% barrel rate. His pull rates and flyball rates were back up near what he put up in 2023, but his HR/FB rate was 5.7%, which is well below the 12% league average. I don’t know how much he’s going to play this season, but everything under the hood says he should have had far better numbers last year.
I think we’ve let the toxic situation in Philadelphia push us off of Nick Castellanos (ADP: 345) too much. Yes, he’s on the downside of his career, and his bat speed is declining, but so much of what we saw last year was in line with who he has always been. His swinging strike rate was lower than it’s been since 2019. His zone contact was the best mark since 2019. Same with his overall contact rate. His pull rate was around his career average, as was his fly ball rate. His barrel rate was around 8%, which is below what we’re used to seeing from him but not atrocious. I don’t see him getting back to peak value, but I do see him hitting .250-.260 with 20 home runs and hitting behind a strong group of guys like Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Manny Machado, which should open up plenty of RBI opportunities.
